Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - **Coke**: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - **Fundamentals**: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - **Price and Position**: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Performance**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23]. Log - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26].

Market Manipulation Strategies - Proposed methods to exploit arbitrageurs by creating artificial price discrepancies between spot and futures markets [1] - Suggests maintaining a high premium by opening large long positions in the 0.5-0.55 range [1] - Plans to delay delivery of pre-sales (600 million USD) to trap arbitrageurs [1] - Advocates creating a 20 million USD liquidity pool to attract investment and increase volatility [1] - Aims to create a situation with low spot market circulation and high futures market open interest [1] - Intends to trigger a short squeeze by manipulating the futures market, potentially multiplying long positions and generating liquidity [1] Financial Exploitation - Aims to capture the entire 600 million USD from pre-sales by exploiting market dynamics [1] - Suggests strategies for even larger-scale exploitation requiring capital investment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that short positions have increased significantly, leading to a substantial decline in aluminum oxide futures prices [1] - The article raises questions about the reasons behind the price drop and whether prices are nearing a peak [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent price movement of palm oil futures, highlighting a potential false breakout above the 4200 mark, which raises questions about whether this is a bear trap or a signal for adjustment [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Palm oil futures opened higher with a 2% increase but subsequently retreated, indicating market volatility and uncertainty [1] - The increase in inventory levels is putting pressure on prices, suggesting that supply dynamics are influencing market behavior [1] Group 2: Price Movement - The price action around the 4200 level is critical, as it may determine the future trend of palm oil futures [1] - The market's reaction to the inventory increase could lead to further price adjustments in the near term [1]

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for coke has increased by 2%, reaching a price of 1508 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The rise in coke futures indicates a positive trend in the commodity market [1]

早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。焦煤、玻璃、多晶硅涨超2%，铁矿石、沪银涨近2%。跌幅方 面，燃料油跌近2%，SC原油跌超1%。 ...

相关链接 期货热点追踪 MPOB数据出炉：马棕油6月库存创18个月高位，连续第四个月增加，出口意外爆冷，数据整体影响如 何？ ...

玻璃期货主力合约大涨6%，报1091元/吨。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant surge in caustic soda futures, with prices increasing by nearly 4% during trading, indicating potential preemptive positioning by major players in the market [1] Group 1 - Caustic soda futures have experienced a notable price increase, suggesting heightened market activity and interest [1] - The mention of a "futures tracking tool" implies the availability of resources for investors to monitor market trends and capital movements effectively [1]