Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a rebound in U.S. soybean prices amidst a backdrop of ample supply, increased short positions from funds, and complex trade dynamics [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of U.S. soybeans is currently abundant, which may limit price increases [1] - The market is experiencing heightened short positions from funds, indicating bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Ongoing complexities in trade relations are influencing market perceptions and could impact future pricing of soybeans [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton or 0.51%. The previous day's position was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore increased to varying degrees. Some basis and spread values also changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,203 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 1.23%. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.58%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and basis and spread values also had corresponding changes [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to weekly data from Steel Union on July 31, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. Total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and apparent demand decreased [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and spot prices of relevant products decreased. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and semi - coke also changed. The basis and spread values of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding adjustments [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 229.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total manganese ore exports were 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's trading of thermal coal ZC2508 had no transactions. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous settlement price. Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal are provided, and the long and short positions of the top 20 members on August 1 did not change [23][24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Thermal coal has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [29].

期货热点追踪 橡胶价格震荡走低，市场观望气氛浓厚，在东南亚季风扰动和全球需求趋弱的多重交织下，价格反弹仍 面临重重挑战。 相关链接 ...

期货热点追踪 ICE期棉周线料两连跌，需求、宏观、关联品"三座大山"压顶，多重利空叠加下，ICE期棉的下跌通道 是否已彻底打开？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - The integration of futures market functions is aiding the stable development of the Heilongjiang soybean industry, which accounts for approximately 47% of China's soybean planting area and 45% of its production [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Heilongjiang's soybean industry is experiencing significant growth, but market volatility poses challenges for processing companies [3]. - The soybean cost constitutes over 40% of the production cost for soybean milk products, making raw material cost control crucial for companies [3]. Group 2: Futures Market Utilization - Companies like Wewei Northeast are actively using futures tools to lock in costs, guide procurement, adjust inventory, and manage risks [3][4]. - In 2024, Wewei Northeast preemptively purchased tens of thousands of tons of soybeans based on futures market predictions of low prices, employing hedging strategies to secure costs [3]. Group 3: Support for Farmers - The "insurance + futures" pilot program initiated in 2015 has benefited soybean farmers by providing price or income insurance, effectively transferring risks associated with price drops [5]. - Since the program's inception, 41 soybean projects have been supported, covering 72,500 households and insuring 1.0822 million tons of soybeans, with total compensation amounting to 216 million yuan [5]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - As of June 2025, 14 delivery warehouses have been established in key soybean-producing areas, enhancing participation in the futures market and strengthening relationships with upstream and downstream clients [6]. - The integration of futures and its derivatives into the Heilongjiang soybean industry has improved decision-making and risk management, creating a win-win situation for all stakeholders [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].

期货热点追踪 政策真空期来临！铁水产量连续两周下降，铁矿石变盘在即？ 相关链接 ...

反内卷政策频出，多晶硅8月产量究竟如何变化，后市能否重拾涨势？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

买家迟迟不入场，美豆期货跌破关键支撑！技术面+基本面双杀，反弹还有戏吗？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...