Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, but the immediate impact on oil prices in Q3 is expected to be limited [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ has made a decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day for August, which is higher than market forecasts [1] - Some oil-producing countries are currently producing above their target levels, and there are constraints from production compensation plans, leading to actual monthly increases being less than the targeted adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - The Asian market has shown a subdued response to the OPEC+ production increase, with expectations that the demand for gasoline and jet fuel will support the increase during the peak demand season in Q3 [1] - After the peak season, if the U.S. continues its tariff policies, a return to OPEC+ production levels could negatively impact the fundamentals, potentially leading to a downward shift in oil prices [1] Group 3: Fuel Types and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil (FU) is experiencing weak performance due to low demand from shipping and deep processing, with a lack of support from summer power generation needs in the Middle East and North Africa [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has limited supply pressure due to strong coking profits, but overall demand remains weak, leading to fluctuating prices [1] Group 4: Refinery and Inventory Insights - As of now, the shipment volume from 54 sample refineries has slightly decreased, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 8% to 7% [1] - Refinery inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, while social inventories remain stable compared to the previous week [1] Group 5: LPG Market and Chemical Demand - The international LPG supply is overall loose, and with OPEC's further production increase expected in August, overseas prices may come under pressure [1] - Recent maintenance has led to a decline in chemical demand, but lower import costs are helping to restore PDH margins, with attention on the rebound pace of PDH operating rates [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [5][6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the long - term, the market is bearish because of the large - scale production increase from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., leading to a high probability of inventory accumulation [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips and conduct band trading in the short - term, and to short on rallies in the long - term. Close out and take profits on long - short spreads, and avoid reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - The long - end U.S. Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds [17]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [19]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations. For example, Iraq's Basrah crude export to Europe weakens, the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation, Saudi may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation, and Russia's ESPO Blend export decreases in June but is expected to rebound in July [7]. - The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that the business activity index turns negative. U.S. oil and gas executives are pessimistic about production prospects due to Trump's tariff policies and trade wars. Although U.S. crude production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in April, WTI export profitability has deteriorated [8]. - Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran have different supply situations. Venezuela's production is expected to decline, and Iran's export is affected by sanctions, but there are signs of possible sanction relief [8]. - The IEA predicts a global crude oil supply surplus in the second half of 2025, and global visible inventories have been accumulating in the past three months [8]. 3. Demand - The seasonal peak demand continues. In Asia, China's crude oil processing volume increases, and some countries like Japan, South Korea, and India increase their U.S. crude oil imports. In Europe, refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and freight increases have raised costs [9]. 4. Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory rebounds, while Cushing inventory declines and is significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are strongly volatile, European crude inventory rebounds while diesel and gasoline inventories decline, and domestic refined oil margins are recovering [61][70][75]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC underperforms foreign markets with a declining monthly spread, and the net long position increases [79][80][83].

Report Summary 1. Market News and Key Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The August - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 45 cents to $67.00 a barrel, a 0.67% decline; the September - delivery Brent crude futures in London dropped 31 cents to $68.80 a barrel, a 0.45% decline. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.66% to 507 yuan per barrel [1]. - **US - Vietnam Trade Agreement**: Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will be fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US, and a 40% tariff on any trans - shipped goods [1]. - **US Employment Data**: In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 (seasonally adjusted), higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. Government employment increased by 73,000, healthcare by 39,000, and social assistance by 19,000. However, the oil and gas extraction industry lost about 500 jobs compared to the previous month and about 900 compared to the same period last year [1]. - **US Ethane Exports to China**: The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement on July 2, clearing the way for the resumption of ethane exports to China. Eight ships have sailed to China since the restriction was lifted [1]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend. Saudi Arabia and its partners have previously approved the same - scale increases for May, June, and July [1]. - **Trump's Energy Bill**: Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy and creates a favorable environment for oil, gas, and coal production. It opens federal lands and waters for oil and gas drilling, reduces royalties for producers, and phases out tax credits for wind and solar energy projects after 2027 [1]. 2. Investment Logic - With the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, China resumes rare - earth exports to the US, and the US cancels restrictions on ethane exports to China, reducing trade uncertainties and boosting market risk appetite. Also, an increase in the fuel - oil diluted - asphalt consumption - tax deduction ratio for some Shandong refineries is expected to lower refinery costs, boost the Shandong local refinery operating rate, and be positive for oil prices [2]. 3. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a short - term range and be a medium - term short - side allocation [3].

截至2025年7月1日，原油市场呈现多空交织态势。SC原油主力合约收报 499.4元/桶，较前日小幅上涨0.54%，盘中呈现探底回升走势。WTI与Brent 油价维持横向整理格局，分别持平于64.97和66.63美元/桶。值得注意的是 SC原油价差明显走强，SC-Brent价差环比扩大15%至3.1美元/桶，SC近远月 价差单日飙升30.7%至16.6元/桶，显示近端合约流动性溢价提升。 供需双向拉扯延续 油价维持弱势整理 一、日度市场总结 供应端呈现明显分化格局。OPEC+主要产油国持续释放增产动能，沙特6月 原油出口环比激增45万桶/日创一年新高至633万桶/日，哈萨克斯坦6月产 量环比增长7.5%至188万桶/日创历史纪录，俄罗斯7月黑海石油产品出口计 划环比增长22.3%至103.5万吨。但墨西哥产量下滑至1970年代末水平（目 前约160万桶/日，较峰值减少逾40%）引发美国炼油厂夏季供应担忧，该结 构性缺口推动美国得州原油产量回升至577万桶/日支撑区域平衡。 需求端季节性矛盾显现。北美夏季出行旺季推动炼厂开工率维持高位，EIA 周度数据显示美国商业原油库存加速去化1.5%，但山东独立炼厂6月30 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel; in the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, while SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center with difficult - to - refute inventory drawdown; in the long - term, the market is bearish, mainly because of the large long - term surplus pressure from production increases in OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., with difficult - to - refute inventory build - up [6]. - For trading strategies, go long on dips in the short - term and conduct band trading; go short on rallies in the long - term and trend - follow short positions. Clear and take profits on calendar spreads and avoid reverse spreads [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the Sino - US "trade" relationship eases [16]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [17]. 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ production increase falls short of expectations, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early July. In different countries/regions, there are various supply situations: Qatar shows supply tightness; Iraq's Basrah crude export has issues; the UAE reduces oil allocation; Saudi Arabia may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation; Russia's crude export decreases; the US sees changes in production, drilling, and inventory; Kazakhstan and other regions face supply shortages; Venezuela has supply changes; and Iran's export is at high risk [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - In June, refinery operating rates continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the seasonal demand surge. In different regions, demand varies: in Asia, China's refinery demand is affected by sanctions and conflicts, and India, Japan, and South Korea have slow demand recovery; in the Americas, the US is a major consumer, and its demand is affected by the economy and policies; in Europe, refineries are highly dependent on Middle - Eastern sour crude, and the conflict makes buyers cautious [9]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories decline; Cushing inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined oil profit margins recover [59][68][71]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly. The monthly spread declines. SC underperforms overseas markets, and the monthly spread also declines. Net long positions increase [75][76][80].

Core Viewpoint - The premium space created by geopolitical tensions has been fully absorbed, leading to a significant drop in SC crude oil prices, raising questions about whether this is a short-term adjustment or a long-term trend [1] Group 1 - Analysts warn that the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices has not been completely factored in, suggesting potential for further price stabilization [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Support for Consumption**: On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, and taking various measures to promote consumption [7][8] - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. There may still be a chance for a rebound in the first half of the third quarter. Brent and WTI may break through $80/barrel, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. However, in the medium - to - long term, the downward pressure on oil prices is large [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously being removed, and lithium prices have rebounded from a low level. Although the supply - demand pattern has not significantly improved, the outflow of warehouse receipts and high virtual - to - real ratios may lead to increased market volatility [11] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. It is expected to be under pressure in the future [12][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have ceased, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [20][24] - **Silver**: It continues to rise, and the trend strength is - 1 [20][24] **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Inventory decline supports prices, and the trend strength is 0 [26][28] - **Aluminum**: It is operating weakly, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Alumina**: It is oscillating at the bottom, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The off - season is deepening, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Zinc**: It is adjusting in a narrow range, and the trend strength is 0 [32] - **Lead**: It is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the trend strength is 1 [34][35] - **Tin**: There is a tight current situation but weak expectations, and the trend strength is 0 [37][40] - **Nickel**: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] **Energy and Chemicals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are accelerating their removal, and the virtual - to - real ratio of near - month contracts is high. The trend strength is 0 [46][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being removed again, and attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is 0 [50][52] - **Polysilicon**: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. The trend strength is - 1 [50][52] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [53] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [55][57] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [59][61] - **Coke**: After four rounds of price cuts, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Coking Coal**: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. The trend strength is not mentioned [12][13]

2025 年 6 月 25 日 原油：不宜追空，或再次转强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI8 月原油期货收跌 4.14 美元/桶，跌幅 6.04%，报 64.37 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 4.34 美元/桶，跌幅 6.07%，报 67.14 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 51.30 元/桶，跌幅 9.27%， 报 502.30 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 哈萨克斯坦国家石油公司 KazMunayGaz：预计 2025 年腾吉兹油田的原油产量将达 3570 万吨。 2. 特朗普呼吁压低油价，同时鼓励美国能源部加大钻探力度。 3. 俄罗斯六月份的炼油厂产量有望达到今年最高水平。 4. 消息人士：委内瑞拉第二大炼油厂因停电而停产。 5. 市场消息：中东油轮收益跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平。 6. 日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 7. 消息人士称，俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 将在八月暂停萨哈林-1 ...