Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is emerging as a favored candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, supported by former President Trump, which has led the market to reassess future monetary policy directions [2][3]. Group 1: Waller's Profile and Market Impact - Waller has been a Federal Reserve Governor since 2020, known for his academic background and policy flexibility, advocating for quicker monetary easing when inflation risks are manageable [3]. - His potential appointment is seen as a stabilizing factor for long-term U.S. Treasury yields and maintaining dollar inflows, alleviating market concerns about abrupt shifts in monetary policy [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.23% to 98.400 following the news of Waller's candidacy [2]. Group 2: Other Candidates and Market Sentiment - Other candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Waller, Hassett, and Warsh being the top contenders according to betting platforms [5]. - Analysts express concerns that candidates closely aligned with the White House may raise fears about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially negatively impacting asset prices [5]. - Hassett is viewed as favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus, which could pressure the dollar and increase bond market volatility if appointed [5]. - Warsh's history of advocating for tighter monetary policy raises questions about his potential approach if he were to take office, with concerns about a more aggressive balance sheet reduction [5].

据外媒报道，知情人士透露，在美国总统特朗普的顾问们为鲍威尔寻找替代者之际，美联储理事沃勒正 成为担任美联储主席的热门人选。 知情人士称，特朗普的顾问们对沃勒愿意基于预测而非当前数据来调整政策，以及他对整个美联储体系 的深刻了解印象深刻。 这些因讨论私人审议而要求匿名的人士表示，沃勒已就该职位与总统的团队会面，但尚未与特朗普本人 会面。 上周，沃勒是投票反对央行连续第五次维持基准利率不变的两名美联储理事会成员之一。他和他的同事 鲍曼两人都倾向于降息25个基点，理由是劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象，另外，二者均由特朗普 提名。 在美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定几天后，一份就业报告显示，在截至7月份的前三个月里，就业增长 急剧放缓，这证实了沃勒和鲍曼异议的可信度。 知情人士称，前美联储官员凯文·沃什和现任特朗普国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特也仍在竞争之 列，该职位将在鲍威尔的主席任期于2026年5月届满时空出。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说，"特朗普总统将继续提名最称职、最有经验的人 选，然而，除非消息来自特朗普总统本人，否则任何关于人事决定的讨论都应被视为纯粹的猜测。" 美联储的一 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储理事沃勒被特朗普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一。沃勒已经会见特朗普的团队。他们对沃 勒的降息意愿感到印象深刻。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, with a focus on individuals who align with his economic policies and support for interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Selection - Trump has initiated interviews for the Federal Reserve Board vacancy and has narrowed the potential candidates to four [4]. - Among the candidates mentioned are former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, with speculation around current Fed governor Christopher J. Waller [4]. - The final selection will likely depend on Trump's strategic considerations regarding the economic power structure [5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The push for interest rate cuts is driven by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, particularly in light of a $36 trillion federal debt and high-interest rates [5]. - A 1% reduction in the benchmark interest rate could save the government hundreds of billions in refinancing costs, emphasizing the importance of selecting a candidate who will adhere to Trump's agenda for rate cuts [5].

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会在未来几天内提名一位临时美联储理事来填补美联 储理事会即将空缺的席位，而不是利用这个席位来表明他选择接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 这给特朗普留下选择空间：既可提拔某人完成她任期至明年1月，同时继续权衡主席人选;也可提前数月 决定美联储主席人选并立即宣布。 特朗普的联储候选人名单中多位来自体制外，且鲍威尔主席任期至明年5月结束前，总统未必能再获提 名机会。虽然美联储主席卸任时通常会退出理事会，但鲍威尔作为理事的任期将持续至2028年，他迄今 未透露去留计划。 顾问团队建议总统先确定短期人选，仅完成库格勒至明年1月的剩余任期。该策略将为特朗普赢得数周 乃至数月时间面试主席候选人。特朗普周三称正倾向此方案。 他表示正考虑"大概"三位临时人选候选人，并暗示可能来自华尔街。"说到底，我们本质上都算华尔街 的人，不是吗？"特朗普说道。 他透露商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、财政部长斯科特·贝森特及副总统JD·万斯等顾问参与遴选流程。 特朗普周三在白宫对记者表示，"我认为临时人选将在未来两三天内公布，之后我们会确定正式人选。" 特朗普另重申，认为"两位凯文"——前美联储理事凯 ...

当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示，可能很快宣布下一任美联储主席人选，他已将潜在的人选范围缩小到四人，但该名单不包括财政部长贝森特，因为 贝森特希望继续留任财政部长。这四名候选人包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特和其他两人。此外，他将在本周决定填补 空缺出来的美联储理事人选。 （来源：CCTV国际时讯） ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9164, with an opening price of 9104 and a current price of 9187, reflecting a 1.25% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9196, while the lowest was 9094, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The recent upward movement in silver futures suggests potential for further gains, with targets set around 8300 and possibly extending to 9500 [4] Group 2 - Trump has narrowed down his list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair to four, including well-known figures like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [3] - The exclusion of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin from the list has quelled speculation about his potential transition to the Fed Chair position [3] - James Fishback, CEO of Azoria Investment, has expressed interest in becoming a Fed governor, indicating a broader range of candidates than previously thought [3]

Group 1 - Trump claims that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is "manipulating" employment data, particularly household surveys, suggesting that initial optimistic figures are later revised downward to influence election outcomes [1] - Trump has narrowed down potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to four, excluding current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who prefers to remain in his position [2] - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs, potentially reaching 250%, with initial smaller tariffs increasing over time as part of efforts to encourage domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - A new round of tariffs on semiconductors and chips is expected to be announced soon, as Trump emphasizes the need for these products to be manufactured in the U.S. [5][6][7] - Trump alleges that major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, have discriminated against him by refusing to open accounts, raising concerns about political bias against conservative clients [9] - Due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods entering the U.S., with current rates at 25% [10][11]

Core Points - President Trump is set to decide on the nomination for the vacant Federal Reserve Board position by the end of the week, narrowing the candidates for the successor to Chairman Powell to four individuals [2][3] - The successor to Fed Governor Kugler, who unexpectedly announced her departure, will serve until January, but Trump indicated that this nominee could later be appointed for a full 14-year term [3][5] - Trump has expressed criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates since his return to the White House, highlighting the challenges the Fed faces in balancing inflation and employment goals [4][6] Candidate Selection - The narrowed list for the Fed Chair includes economic advisor Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and two others, with speculation that one may be current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [2][3] - The nomination process for Kugler's successor requires Senate confirmation, and a separate process will be needed for the new Fed Chair [5] Economic Context - Concerns have been raised regarding the integrity of U.S. employment data following the dismissal of the BLS director, which may impact perceptions of the Fed's independence [6][7] - Economic experts warn that Trump's trade policies could lead to a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, influencing the Fed's decision-making on interest rates [6][7]