智通财经APP获悉，美元迎来9月底以来最佳单日表现，因交易员纷纷加大对美联储维持利率不变的押 注。 周三，美元现货指数上涨0.5%，创下9月25日以来最大单日涨幅，收盘触及逾两周高位。美国劳工统计 局表示，11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，较美联储议息会议滞后近一周。由于缺乏10月和11月就 业数据，美联储将失去制定政策所需的关键参考依据。 "美元今日表现出强劲反弹势头，"美国银行策略师Alex Cohen表示，"我认为美元仍存在一些不对称的 上行风险，因为市场仍需数据来证明12月降息的合理性。" 美国劳工统计局定于周四发布9月非农就业报告。在经历美国历史上最长时间的联邦政府停摆后，相关 政府机构已开始逐步恢复经济数据发布工作。 美国银行的Cohen表示，在美国劳工统计局发布公告前，美元已受多重因素提振，包括英国下周将公布 预算案，市场对其财政状况的担忧拖累英镑走势。 交易员目前几乎排除了12月降息的可能性。美国劳工统计局周三透露，10月就业报告将不再单独发布， 相关数据将合并计入11月统计结果。 "鉴于缺乏及时的经济数据，美联储维持利率不变的概率显著上升，"富国银行纽约策略师Aroop Chatter ...

美国总统特朗普在公开场合升级了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评，直言"我很想炒掉他"，并称其"极度无能"。 周三特朗普在美国华盛顿举行的美国-沙特投资论坛上，敦促美国财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔继任者的进程 。特朗普对坐在观众席的贝森特说： 你得努力点，贝森特。贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储这件事。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，美联储理事任期则到2028年。特朗普还半开玩笑地对贝森特施压： 利率太高了，贝森特，如果你不快点搞定，我就要炒掉你。 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称， 特朗普将在感恩节11月27日后与三位最终候选人会面，新的人选可能在12月25日圣诞节前宣布。 继任者搜寻进入冲刺阶段 周二据媒体报道，特朗普称美国政府对美联储最高职位已有一些"很好的人选"。 特朗普此前曾多次表示，贝森特将是他对美联储主席职位的首选，但贝森特告诉他更愿意留任美国财政部和国税局负责人。 目前贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单： 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美联储理事沃勒、负责监管的美联储副主席鲍曼，以及贝莱德高 管Rick Rieder。 特朗普周三的讲话首次暗示了白宫内部对鲍威尔去留问题的分歧。 ...

美国总统特朗普在公开场合升级了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评，直言"我很想炒掉他"，并称其"极度无 能"。 周三特朗普在美国华盛顿举行的美国-沙特投资论坛上，敦促美国财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔继任 者的进程。特朗普对坐在观众席的贝森特说： 你得努力点，贝森特。贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储这件事。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月到期，美联储理事任期则到2028年。特朗普还半开玩笑地对贝森 特施压： 周二据媒体报道，特朗普称美国政府对美联储最高职位已有一些"很好的人选"。 他重申贝森特不想要当美联储主席，并继续抨击鲍威尔。 特朗普此前曾多次表示，贝森特将是他对美联储主席职位的首选，但贝森特告诉他更愿意留任美国财政 部和国税局负责人。 利率太高了，贝森特，如果你不快点搞定，我就要炒掉你。 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称，特朗普将在感恩节11月27日后与三位最终候选人会 面，新的人选可能在12月25日圣诞节前宣布。 继任者搜寻进入冲刺阶段 目前贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单：美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、现任美联储理 事沃勒、负责监管的美联储副主席鲍曼，以及贝莱德高管Rick Rieder。 下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank governor of Indonesia indicates that the Federal Reserve's less dovish interest rate policy is contributing to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is noted as a significant factor affecting market conditions [1] - Increased market uncertainty is highlighted as a consequence of the Federal Reserve's policy changes [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a rebound on November 18, closing at $4,052.90 per ounce after reaching a high of $4,081.92 and a low of $3,997.99 [1] Employment Data - According to ADP Research, U.S. companies cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 1, with major layoffs announced by companies like Amazon and Target [3] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that planned layoffs reached the highest level for any October in over 20 years [3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 for the week ending October 18, consistent with mid-September levels [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 48.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 51.1% [5] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 49.7%, with a 31.9% chance of no change and an 18.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a V-shaped recovery after hitting a low of $3,997, with a subsequent rise to $4,081 during the trading session [6] - The daily chart indicates a small bullish candle with a long lower shadow, suggesting stability above the 40-day moving average [6] - Short-term indicators are showing signs of a bottoming pattern, while the four-hour chart indicates a consolidation phase below the 60-day moving average [6] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for both aggressive and conservative traders [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant drop in spot gold and silver prices, with gold falling below $4040 per ounce and silver dropping over 4% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Spot gold experienced a dramatic decline, falling from a peak of $4210 per ounce to a low of $4031.82 per ounce within 24 hours, marking a drop of $180 and a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at $4082.159 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [1]. - Spot silver has also seen a significant drop, currently trading at $50.517 per ounce after losing over 4% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, indicating a growing concern about potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 94.4% a month ago to 45.8% [2]. - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Kashkari, have expressed skepticism about supporting another rate cut in December, citing concerns over inflation and labor market conditions [2][3]. - Some officials, like Milan, argue that recent economic data supports a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed should consider rate cuts based on improving inflation and weakening job market data [3].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 47,147.48 points, the S&P 500 down 0.05% at 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 22,900.59 points [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45% [4] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department postponed the release of the September employment report to November 21, which will include adjusted wage data [4] - Initial jobless claims are estimated to have slightly decreased from 228,900 to 227,500, indicating a stable labor market [4] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks rather than support the labor market [4] Corporate Layoffs - Verizon Communications is planning to announce a layoff of approximately 15,000 to 20,000 employees, marking the largest layoff in the company's history [5] - This layoff is part of a corporate transformation strategy under new CEO Daniel Schulman, potentially reducing the workforce by up to 20% from around 100,000 employees as of February [5] Oil Price Movements - Oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, including an attack on a key Russian oil port by Ukraine and the seizure of a tanker by Iran [9] - WTI crude oil for December delivery rose 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, while Brent crude for January delivery increased 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [9] - Energy stocks saw collective gains, with ExxonMobil up over 1%, Chevron up over 1%, and ConocoPhillips up over 2% [9][10] Technology Sector Developments - Google is adjusting its advertising strategy to comply with EU antitrust requirements, opting not to sell parts of its ad tech business [6] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia and Microsoft both rising over 1%, while Amazon and Google saw declines of over 1% [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.61% [11] - Notable declines included Futu Holdings down over 7% and JD.com down over 4%, while some companies like Canadian Solar and Tuya Smart saw gains [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and more. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, and also includes international and domestic economic data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. The ten - day percentage changes of several currency exchange rates are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may last until the end of this week, and the southern part may return to dry weather next week. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to increase this weekend, but the precipitation potential is small in the second half of November [4]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, with a 11% year - on - year increase, and exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The government is considering expanding the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December, planning to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 [6][7]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, lower than in September. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [8]. - USDA export sales reports show the export sales, shipments, and new sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil as of September 25 [8][9]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, with a 3.6% increase in the sown area and a 0.1% decrease in the yield per hectare [10]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8), and plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn this week (November 9 - 15) [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a three - day decline, with all ship - type freight rates rising [11]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 13, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 30,720 tons, a 53% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased by 65,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate of oil mills was 60.97%, a 1.85% increase from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 51.6%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled due to the government shutdown [15]. - The IEA monthly report predicts that the total global oil supply in 2026 will reach 108.7 million barrels per day, and the supply of OPEC+ will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with the global oil supply exceeding demand by 4.09 million barrels per day [16]. - The eurozone's industrial output monthly rate in September was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.7% [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 13, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0865, up 32 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 13, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.722 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.89 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 14.694 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 0.91 billion yuan [22].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant selling pressure, with Bitcoin and most related assets deeply entrenched in a bear market, as noted by 10X Research [4] - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals have faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, indicating high volatility and risk [2] - The total liquidation amount over the past 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $760 million and short positions for $150 million [3] Bitcoin ETF and Market Sentiment - The sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached approximately $2.8 billion over the past month, suggesting a potential outflow of funds if Bitcoin's price momentum continues to stagnate before the December Federal Reserve meeting [3] - Market sentiment is further pressured by the dual forces of spot selling and corporate hedging, leading traders to largely avoid altcoins [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates to continue applying pressure on inflation, which remains stubbornly high [5] - Current interest rates are not considered restrictive enough, and inflationary pressures are expected to persist into early next year [6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [8] International Developments - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced a consensus with the U.S. on tariff and security negotiations, including plans for South Korea to build nuclear submarines [11] - The partnership will extend to shipbuilding, artificial intelligence, and nuclear industries, indicating a strengthening of U.S.-South Korea relations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is increasing public divergence among policymakers regarding the future direction of monetary policy [2][5]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Several regional Fed presidents have expressed differing views on inflation, employment, and interest rates, indicating rising uncertainty in the monetary policy path [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent high inflation affecting low- and middle-income families, and suggests that the neutral rate may be higher than commonly estimated [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% target and that policy should maintain some restrictiveness [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Bullard's expectation of a "strong rebound" in the economy in the first quarter of next year supports his cautious stance on rate cuts [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expresses reservations about the October rate cut decision, stating that he did not support it given the strong economic performance at that time, and emphasizes a data-driven approach for future meetings [4]. - The market's reaction indicates uncertainty, with interest rate futures pricing showing nearly a 50% chance of another rate cut in December, reflecting the complex economic situation facing the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Decisions - The divergence among Fed officials highlights the complexity of the U.S. economy, where inflation pressures remain, the labor market requires support, and economic prospects are variable [5]. - The differing conclusions drawn by Fed presidents based on their focus on various economic data points may become clearer with upcoming economic data releases [5].