与此同时，法国总理勒科尔尼（Sebastien Lecornu）在上任不到一个月后突然辞职，使该国政治危机进 一步加深。此举引发法国国债收益率大幅上行，该国与德国的国债收益率息差也随之扩大，市场对法国 控制欧元区最大规模财政赤字能力的疑虑骤然升温。 意外的政治动荡正从东京和巴黎冲击全球金融市场，市场对主要经济体财政稳定性的担忧加剧，导致日 本和法国国债遭遇猛烈抛售。 在日本，支持财政刺激政策的高市早苗在执政党党首选举中获胜，基本锁定下一任首相之位，这一出乎 意料的结果推动日本10年期国债收益率飙升至2008年以来的最高点。市场正为日本央行可能更趋鸽派以 及政府支出进一步扩张的前景做准备。 这些突发事件正在催化一场所谓的"货币贬值交易"。面对发达经济体日益堆积的债务，投资者正在从日 元、欧元等主要货币撤离，转向黄金、白银和比特币等被视为更安全的资产。 日本政坛意外转向，宽松预期重压债市 日本市场的动荡源于一场出乎意料的政治换届。此前，投资者普遍预计更为审慎财政的小泉进次郎将赢 得自民党党首选举，市场也已基本消化了日本央行将继续推进货币政策正常化的预期。 然而，最终在竞选中胜出的是高市早苗。她去年在竞选期间曾称加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce, indicating a "bullish frenzy" in the market [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. government shutdown has created substantial political uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This is the first prolonged funding interruption since the last shutdown over six years ago, causing investors to increase their holdings in physical gold and ETFs to hedge against potential market volatility [4] - The U.S. dollar has been negatively impacted by the government shutdown, which has weakened investor confidence in U.S. fiscal stability. Consequently, gold has shown strength against major currencies, reaching new highs in euro, yen, and pound terms, reinforcing its global safe-haven status [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift has also contributed to rising gold prices. Following a two-year tightening cycle, the Fed announced a rate cut in September, with expectations for another cut in October exceeding 80%. Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, driving more funds into the precious metal market [5] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and currency fluctuations in parts of Asia, alongside high global debt levels, have bolstered demand for gold as a "safe haven" for global capital. Central banks in emerging markets are increasingly shifting reserves from dollar assets to physical gold to diversify risk [6] - Silver has also performed well in this market environment, benefiting from its correlation with gold. Investors are paying renewed attention to silver's dual role as an industrial and store-of-value asset, with analysts suggesting potential for further gains as the gold-silver ratio approaches 70 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4000 per ounce and London spot gold reaching $3974 per ounce, indicating a "bullish frenzy" in the market [2][3] Group 2 - A significant factor influencing gold prices is the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This political deadlock has caused investors to increase their holdings in physical gold and gold ETFs to hedge against potential market volatility [5] - The U.S. dollar has faced pressure due to the government shutdown, which has weakened investor confidence in U.S. fiscal stability. Consequently, gold has performed well against major currencies, reinforcing its global safe-haven status [5] Group 3 - Another driving factor is the shift in Federal Reserve policy. The Fed's announcement of interest rate cuts marks the end of a two-year tightening cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October exceeding 80%. This change in interest rate expectations has a strong positive impact on gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [6] - The government shutdown has also disrupted the release of key economic data, leaving the Fed without crucial economic indicators, which may lead to a more cautious approach in monetary policy [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical factors are also supporting safe-haven demand for gold, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and currency fluctuations in parts of Asia. Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from U.S. dollar assets [7] - Silver has also seen a price increase, influenced by gold's performance, with analysts suggesting that silver may have further upside potential given its dual role as an industrial and store of value asset [7]

Core Viewpoint - The debasement trade, adopted by individual investors since late 2024 as a hedge against a weaker dollar, is expected to accelerate moving forward [1] Group 1 - Individual investors have increasingly embraced the debasement trade as a strategy to protect against currency depreciation [1] - The trend of the debasement trade has been gaining momentum since late 2024 [1]