Core Insights - The global stock market experienced significant volatility due to U.S. President Trump's threats of new protectionist measures against European allies, particularly concerning tariffs of 10% to 25% on eight European nations and potential duties of up to 200% on French exports [1][3] - A pivotal meeting at the World Economic Forum led to Trump retracting his tariff threats, announcing a "framework deal" for Arctic security, which alleviated immediate trade war concerns [2][4] - The easing of tariff threats has created a favorable environment for European Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), as the removal of trade uncertainty serves as a catalyst for a relief rally in European assets [3][6] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose nearly 1.2%, with major indices like the FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 also showing gains of 0.74% and 1.3% respectively [4] - The U.S. S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite both recorded a 1.2% gain, indicating a rebound across transatlantic equities as trade uncertainties were alleviated [5] European ETFs Focus - European ETFs are highlighted as an efficient means to capitalize on the current relief rally, providing exposure to a broad recovery in the Eurozone's industrial and consumer sectors, which were heavily impacted during the tariff scare [6][7] - Specific European ETFs are recommended for investors seeking renewed exposure to Europe while maintaining liquidity and diversification, including: - **SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (FEZ)**: AUM of $5.22 billion, top holdings include ASML (10.32%), SAP (4.61%), Siemens (4.45%) [8][10] - **iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU)**: AUM of $9.39 billion, top holdings include ASML (6.96%), SAP (3.19%), Siemens (3.03%) [11] - **Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)**: AUM of $37.1 billion, top holdings include ASML (2.81%), Roche (1.92%), AstraZeneca (1.84%) [12]

福尔曼解释道，关税在政治上相对不受欢迎。"目前美国政治辩论的核心经济问题是价格承受能力，也 就是物价水平，而关税显然会对此产生影响。" 格陵兰岛问题会成为新一轮贸易战的催化剂吗？在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所的研讨会上，奥巴马政府 时期总统首席经济学家和白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在回答第一财经记者提问时表示，在（该事件发生之前）的一周前，他大致认为，到2026年 底，美国的关税水平很可能会比开始时低。 而对于"特朗普总统是否总会退缩（TACO）"这一问题，他表示："总的来说，特朗普总统取消威胁、增 加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。" 【如何看"TACO"？#学者称特朗普取消威胁比收紧要多# | 全球洞见】#学者称美国通胀形势不明朗 #2026年初，资本市场因特朗普政府掀起的"夺取格陵兰岛"事件遭遇首只"黑天鹅"。 当地时间1月21日，事件再次反转。美国总统特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛 的欧洲8国加征关税。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和福尔曼等人共同撰写的最新一期《政策评 论》报告也显示，美 ...

"我认为，他们（法院）很有可能会在某种程度上限制这些关税。" 2026年初，资本市场因特朗普政府掀起的"夺取格陵兰岛"事件遭遇首只"黑天鹅"。 当地时间1月21日，事件再次反转。美国总统特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛 的欧洲8国加征关税。 格陵兰岛问题会成为新一轮贸易战的催化剂吗？在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所的研讨会上，奥巴马政府 时期总统首席经济学家和白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在回答第一财经记者提问时表示，在（该事件发生之前）的一周前，他大致认为，到2026年 底，美国的关税水平很可能会比开始时低。 而对于"特朗普总统是否总会退缩（TACO）"这一问题，他表示："总的来说，特朗普总统取消威胁、增 加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。" 如何看待2026年美国关税前景 福尔曼解释道，关税在政治上相对不受欢迎。"目前美国政治辩论的核心经济问题是价格承受能力，也 就是物价水平，而关税显然会对此产生影响。" 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和福尔曼等人共同撰写的最新一期《政策评 论》报告也显示，美国通胀的 ...

本周美股市场一开盘就遭遇狂跌模式，周二美国股指下跌超过2%，标普500指数遭遇10月以来最大跌幅，与科技股为主导的纳指共同抹去了2026年以来的涨 幅。美元兑大多数主要货币走软，美债收益率飙升触及四个月高位，30年期国债收益率攀升至接近5%；黄金价格迅速连破4700、4800美元两大新高。 就在市场经历"过山车"后，即将迎来又一重磅指引，今晚美国即将公布11月核心PCE物价指数以及第三季度GDP终值。市场预期11月核心PCE物价指数为 2.8%，月率预计为0.2%；第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值预计维持为4.3%。 此前数据显示，12月份美国CPI按年率计算上涨2.7%，符合预期；剔除食品和能源价格的核心价格上涨2.6%，比预期低0.1个百分点。如果PCE通胀符合预 期，则表明确认通胀降温趋势。 当前美国商品通缩延续，得益于供应链修复和消费部分转向服务，汽车、家具等商品价格持续疲软。不过服务通胀黏性强，这是当前的核心矛盾。住房服务 成本降温缓慢，加之医疗、保险等服务价格受薪资增长支撑，回落速度是主要观察点。 按照共识，未来几个月，通胀率很可能仍将维持在3%左右，这主要是由于多种因素造成的，例如企业将关税转嫁给 ...

Core Insights - Japan's exports in December increased by 5.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, but exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 11.1%, casting a shadow over the annual growth outlook [1] - The trade surplus for December was 1,057 billion yen, significantly lower than the expected 3,566 billion yen [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to the U.S. were primarily affected by weak demand for automobiles, auto parts, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, leading to a notable drop in shipments compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a trade agreement reducing tariffs to a baseline of 15%, Japanese automakers continue to face tariff pressures that impact their export performance [2] - In contrast, exports to other Asian regions showed strong performance, with a 10.2% increase in December, driven by robust demand for data center-related products amid the AI boom [1][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The decline in exports to the U.S. has raised concerns among analysts regarding the sustainability of future growth, as the temporary boost from the trade agreement has faded [2] - Japan's overall imports grew by 5.3% in December, surpassing market expectations, while the annual import growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.3%, reflecting lower energy prices [3] - For the full year, Japan's exports are expected to grow by 3.1%, successfully mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs, while the trade deficit is projected to narrow by 52.9% to 2.7 trillion yen [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices have been declining, breaking through key levels of $4820, $4810, $4800, and $4790 per ounce, with a daily drop of 0.98% [1][6] - Spot gold has also fallen, losing the same key price points, with a daily decline of 0.86% [1][6] - Spot silver and New York silver futures are experiencing adjustments, with spot silver dropping below $93, $92, and $91 per ounce, showing a maximum daily decline of 3.74% [1][6] - New York silver futures have also fallen below the corresponding levels, with a maximum daily drop of 3.87% [1][6] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. natural gas futures have seen a significant increase, with daily gains expanding from 3% to over 30%, currently reported at $5.083 per million British thermal units [2][7] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, along with a 6.2 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories, while distillate inventories decreased by 33,000 barrels [2][7] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - U.S. President Trump stated at the Davos Forum that he expects the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, claiming that the current decline in the stock market is "insignificant" and that U.S. stocks will double in the future [3][8] - Trump revealed that the selection for the Federal Reserve Chair has narrowed down to two or three candidates, all of whom will be "male" [4][9] - Additionally, Trump mentioned that a framework agreement has been reached with NATO regarding cooperation on Greenland, which will cancel the tariffs originally set to take effect on February 1 [5][10]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、日本财相呼吁债市恢复冷静，美国财长贝森特称日债抛售潮外溢至美债并表示已就此问题与日方 沟通。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,056.94 | 0.77% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,055.99 | 1.03% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4769.10 | #N/A | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23112 | -0.57% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Spot gold reached a new high of $4781.24 per ounce, while spot silver peaked at $94.915 per ounce during early trading on January 21 [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.76% at 48488.59 points, the Nasdaq down 2.39% at 22954.32 points, and the S&P 500 down 2.06% at 6796.86 points [3][5]. - European stock indices also experienced declines, with the FTSE 100 down 0.67%, CAC 40 down 0.61%, and both the DAX and MIB indices dropping over 1% [4][8]. Group 3: Market Volatility - The "fear index," or VIX, surged to 20.99, marking the highest level since November 2025, indicating increased market volatility [3][8]. Group 4: Trade Tensions - U.S. President Trump announced a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, contributing to market concerns over trade tensions [12]. - Trump's comments regarding the potential military acquisition of Greenland have also added to the geopolitical uncertainty affecting market sentiment [11][12].

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) views President Trump's economic threats regarding the purchase of Greenland as a "mistake" that violates the trade agreement reached with transatlantic allies last year [1] - The EU and the US reached a trade agreement in July, which the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized must be honored politically and commercially [1] - Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, escalating to 25% in June unless a deal for Greenland is reached [1] Group 2 - The EU's response will be "firm, united, and reciprocal," with an emergency meeting scheduled to discuss potential retaliatory measures [2] - EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and Greenland, preparing to protect themselves from any form of coercion [2] - The EU is considering reinstating tariffs on $109 billion worth of US goods, including Boeing aircraft and whiskey, which were suspended under the previous trade agreement [2] Group 3 - The EU is contemplating the use of its unutilized coercive tools, which allow it to respond to third countries that exert pressure through trade measures [3] - Potential measures may include tariffs, fees, or targeted restrictions on investments in the EU, as well as limiting access to the EU market [3] - To support Greenland, the EU is developing a comprehensive support plan, including a significant increase in European investments and collaboration on Arctic security issues [3]

Group 1 - Stocks are expected to decline significantly due to concerns over President Trump's tariff plans on eight NATO countries, contingent on the acquisition of Greenland [1] - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 757 points, representing a 1.5% drop, while S&P 500 futures decreased by 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped by 2.0% [1] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note increasing by 6 basis points to 4.29% and the 30-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.93% [2]