文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 2024年城镇就业人员的工资数据新鲜出炉，哪些领域在"涨薪"、哪些领域"反内卷"？工资数据背后，有 何就业"新趋势"？本文梳理，供参考。 趋势一：就业从"追求高薪"转向"反内卷"。 2024年，城镇非私营单位的平均工资增速放缓，但交运、轻工纺服等行业工资得益于营收增长的直接拉 动，仍保持较高增速。 城镇非私营单位就业人员的年均工资增速自2021年回落6.8pct，目前降至2.8%。 但交运、皮革制鞋、服装等行业工资增速分别较2021年回落4.8、上行21.8、15.6pct。行业工资表现较 好，更多是营收的直接拉动，譬如2024年交运业的营收增速超8%。 不同于2019年前就业人员向"高薪"行业集中，2021年后就业更多向工作时间短、时薪高的行业迁移，就 业倾向"反内卷"。 2015-2019年年均工资较高的金融、信息技术服务业的就业占比上行0.6、1.3pct。而 2021年后就业向工作时长短的行业流入，且这些行业时薪"被动"提高；如2021-2023年，卫生业的周工作 时长减少1.5小时，时薪增加9.3元/小时，就业占比上行0.2pct。 目前交运、居民服 ...

高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所走弱，汽车销售持续走强。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行。 本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.4pct至2.1%。化工链生产边际回 升，纯碱、PTA、涤纶长丝开工同比分别+0.1pct至-4.7%、+0.7pct至5.4%、+0.8pct至4.1%。而汽车半钢胎 开工率小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至-2.6%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工有所走弱。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率有较大回落，同比分 别-1.1pct至-4.6%、-1pct至-8%。沥青开工率明显回落，同比-8.8pct至-2%。 风险提示 经济转型面临短期约束，政策落地效果不及预期，居民收入增长不及预期。 4. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工有所走弱 上游生产中，高炉开工率保持韧性，表观消费略有回升。 本周（05月18日至05月24日），高炉开工率 同比-0.4pct至2.1%；表观消费略有回升，同比较前周上行+0.1pct至-4.8%。此外，钢材社会库存延续回落。 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 、耿佩璇 摘要 图 48：本周，钢厂盈利率同比小幅回落 全国247家钢厂盈利率 = = = = ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio emphasizes the importance of seeking the cancellation of tariffs by the United States, stating that investment is more crucial than tariffs [1] - There are positive signs in the economy following wage increases, indicating a potential recovery or growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is committed to improving the corporate investment environment and increasing wage levels [1] Group 1 - The government aims to enhance the conditions for corporate investment, which may lead to increased business activities and economic growth [1] - There is a focus on raising wage levels, which could improve consumer spending and overall economic health [1]

Group 1 - Experts' opinions are considered important references for policy-making in China's modernization process, but not all suggestions withstand scrutiny and some may lead to serious consequences [1] - Zhang Weiying, a prominent economist, proposed the abolition of minimum wage standards in 2019, arguing that market forces should determine wages to reduce costs for businesses and increase employment opportunities [5][27] - This suggestion sparked intense debate, with critics arguing it overlooks the basic rights of workers and could lead to significant wage reductions, impacting their livelihoods [17][27] Group 2 - Lang Xianping advocated for a fairer income distribution system in 2020, highlighting China's high Gini coefficient of 0.47, which exceeds the international warning line of 0.4 [19] - He suggested policy adjustments, such as increasing taxes on high-income groups and subsidizing low-income earners, but this could undermine market incentives and innovation [19][29] - The average income distribution could lead to inefficiencies, as seen in historical examples like the Soviet Union's planned economy [21] Group 3 - He Weifang called for the abolition of the death penalty in 2021, emphasizing the sanctity of life and the irreversible risks of judicial errors [11][21] - His views faced criticism for being out of touch with public sentiment, as over 70% of respondents in a 2019 survey believed the death penalty deters serious crimes [23][31] - The Chinese government has maintained the death penalty, citing its role in crime deterrence and public safety [23][31] Group 4 - Han Han proposed reforms to the college entrance examination system in 2022, advocating for a shift towards quality education and personalized development for students [13][25] - His suggestions received mixed reactions, with concerns that abolishing the exam could exacerbate educational inequality, particularly for rural students [25][29] - The current examination system is viewed as one of the fairest selection mechanisms, providing opportunities for students from various backgrounds [25] Group 5 - Wang Xiaobo's idea of direct democracy, suggesting the elimination of representative systems, has been debated posthumously, with scholars noting the impracticality in a populous nation like China [27][33] - The Chinese government continues to uphold a representative system, emphasizing efficiency in responding to social needs [33] - The discussions surrounding these experts' suggestions highlight the need for policies that consider China's complex realities, balancing theoretical ideals with practical implications [33][35]

前几天，中办、国办联合印发文件提出： 要推动企业健全工资合理增长机制。 以下文章来源于大胡子教买房 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子教买房 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产 稳步增长！ 涨工资这件事，其实今年已经不是第一次在文件中提了。 今年年初的会议上，就已经强调要： "大力支持居民增收，促进工资性收入合理增长"。 今年发布的促消费文件也提出： 将"城乡居民增收促进行动"置于各大政策之首。 今年多次重申增加收入，这背后到底意味着什么？对我们的财富会不会有影响？下面大家可以看 看我的分析。 首先我们先简单谈谈政C背后的逻辑。 其实涨工资的逻辑非常非常简单，就是为了通过提高居民收入，特别是中低收入群体的收入，刺 激他们的消费需求，推动经济增长。 所以你会发现一个值得注意的变化是： 今年以来，从中央到地方的一系列促消费政策， 开始从"发券发补贴"的老路上跳出来，把"增 收"摆在了更为核心的位置。 这不仅是思路的转变，更是对现实困境的一种回应。 而涨工资的意义， 远不止于让大家多花点钱，更在于重塑整个社会的预期。 只要收入稳定增长，每个人就有了对未来的确定感，消 ...

以下文章来源于智谷趋势Trend ，作者碎叶冬青 剑书 智谷趋势Trend . 新中产的首席财富顾问 作者：碎叶冬青 剑书 来源：智谷趋势Trend 特殊时刻，传来非常信号。 5月26日，中办、国办联合印发了一份重磅文件《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》，再 次强调 推动企业健全工资合理增长机制 ……推动上市公司开展中长期激励，制定稳定、长期的 现金分红政策。 事实上，从去年年底以来， 中央就密集发出"涨工资"的信号 。 2个月前，在中办、国办联合发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》中，"城乡居民增收促进行动"被列 为八大行动之首。 国家频频强调，信号很不寻常。为什么当下我们要千方百计增加居民收入，背后隐藏着怎样的深 远考量？ 这 是不是 意味着， 工资要全面上涨了？ 01 首先，提高居民收入对提振消费而言，极为必要。 目前，拉动经济的"三架马车"里头，出口面临很大的不确定性，投资的油门也差不多轰到顶了， 增量有限，只有消费这辆"马车"还有很大的发挥空间。 2024年，全国居民人均消费支出28227元，还不到美国的九分之一。 去年年底举办的中央经济工作会议，就为2025年定调掌舵，中国经济面临的最大内部挑战，就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的核心通胀上升不仅受到疫情后经济复苏和紧缩的劳动力市场的推动，还 受到供应冲击的影响，这些因素共同推升了国内价格和工资水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the reform of the wage distribution system for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, emphasizing the establishment of a budget cycle management system for total wages in qualifying SOEs [1] Group 1: Wage Distribution Reform - The document proposes improvements to the income distribution system of enterprises, aiming to establish a reasonable growth mechanism for wages [1] - It emphasizes the need for a scientific salary and performance evaluation system for senior management in enterprises, ensuring that their compensation levels are determined reasonably [1] - The reform aims to consolidate the achievements of the salary system for SOE leaders, ensuring strict regulation of salaries, allowances, and subsidies for various levels of SOE leaders [1] Group 2: Incentives and Dividends - The document encourages listed companies to implement long-term incentives and to develop stable, long-term cash dividend policies [1]