2025 年 4 月的财政数据有哪些主要特点？ 2025 年 4 月的财政数据显示广义财政收支增速有所回升。具体来看，前四个 月的广义财政支出同比增速达到 7.2%，相比一季度的 5.6%有进一步提升，虽 然仍未达到年初设定的 9.3%的目标，但差距在逐渐缩小。支出端的提速主要 依赖于融资支持，尤其是政府债务。今年中央普通国债和特别国债发行进度明 显加快，其中特别国债从 4 月下旬开始发行，比去年提前一个月。地方债方面， 今年一季度化债进度较快，而 4 月份地方政府重心逐渐向项目投资倾斜。 2025 年第一季度土地出让收入同比增速仍在负区间，但微观数据和财 政口径存在背离。330 个城市的土地成交价款同比增速在一季度已经回 正，财政确认收入则滞后至 4 月份单月同比增速才回正。 未来政策展望方面，将优先使用存量政策，再考虑是否加码及加码幅度。 二季度将继续加快存量政策落地，是否出台增量政策，需观察 7 月底政 治局会议和 8 月下旬人大常委会时点，根据外部压力情况决定。 基数因素 or 另有原因——如何看待 4 月财政收支改善 20250521 摘要 2025 年 4 月财政支出增速加快，主要得益于政府债务融 ...

冉学东 居民风险偏好有所收敛。 央行最新发布的数据显示，今年前四个月我国人民币存款增加了12.55万亿元，而去年前四个月人民币存款增加了 7.32万亿元，两相比较超过5.23万亿元，多增加了超三分之二，这个增幅是近几年最大的。 从细项看，住户存款增幅较大，2024年前四个月住户存款增加6.71万亿元，今年前四月住户存款增加7.83万亿元， 今年比去年增加了1.1万亿元。 而从居民的融资看，居民的风险偏好仍然在收敛，消费信心改善迹象不明显，未来消费趋势是否好转，居民融资 仍然是一个好的观察窗口。 变化最大的是非金融企业存款，今年前四个月非金融企业存款增加了4103亿元，去年则是减少了1.65万亿元。财 政性存款增幅也较大，今年增加了1.19万亿元，去年则是减少了1874亿元。 非金融企业存款数据为什么会有这样的变化呢，我们说贷款创造存款，去年前四个月企（事）业单位贷款增加 8.63万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加2.56万亿元，中长期贷款增加6.61万亿元；今年企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万 亿元，其中，短期贷款增加3.03万亿元，中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元。由此看，这两年企业贷款变化不是很明显， 不能说明问题。 ...

新疆发行30年期其他专项地方债，规模2.9000亿元，发行利率2.1200%，边际倍数3.53倍，倍数预期 2.05。 新疆发行15年期收费公路专项地方债，规模2.0000亿元，发行利率2.0700%，边际倍数1.17倍，倍数预 期1.99； 新疆发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模6.8000亿元，发行利率2.1300%，边际倍数43.50倍，倍数预期 2.09； ...

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

Revenue Insights - In April, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.89%[1] - From January to April, public fiscal revenue declined by 0.4% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed[1] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April, while cumulative tax revenue decreased by 2.1%[1] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in April was CNY 20,766 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%[2] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April grew by 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[2] - By the end of April, 31.5% of the annual expenditure target had been completed, surpassing the progress of the same period from 2020 to 2024[2] Sectoral Analysis - Social security and employment expenditures rose by 9.6%, while health expenditures increased by 10% in April[2] - Infrastructure spending accelerated, with urban and rural community affairs and transportation expenditures growing by 6.8% and 10.6%, respectively[2] - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in April, driven by a recovery in land sales[3] Debt and Funding - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, supporting broad fiscal expenditure, with CNY 1.19 trillion in new special bonds issued from January to April[3] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds began in April, providing strong support for government fund expenditures[3] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and policy execution falling short of expectations[4]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Finance Minister projects the 10-year government bond yield to be between 6.6% and 7.2% by 2026 [1] - The GDP growth rate for Indonesia is expected to be between 5.2% and 5.8% in 2026 [1] - The projected crude oil price for Indonesia in 2026 is estimated to be between $60 and $80 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Finance Minister projects GDP growth for 2026 to be between 5.2% and 5.8% [1] - The expected yield on 10-year government bonds in 2026 is forecasted to be in the range of 6.6% to 7.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian Finance Minister projects that the yield on 10-year government bonds will range between 6.6% and 7.2% by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The expected yield range for 10-year government bonds indicates a stable outlook for Indonesia's debt market [1] - This projection reflects the government's confidence in managing fiscal policies and economic growth [1] - The anticipated yield range may influence investor sentiment and capital flows into Indonesia [1]

贵州发行30年期普通专项地方债，规模36.6544亿元，发行利率2.1200%，边际倍数7.90倍，倍数预期 2.10。 贵州发行10年期一般债地方债，规模84.1084亿元，发行利率1.7800%，边际倍数1.53倍，倍数预期 1.78； ...

监测周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日—2025 年 5 月 11 日 总第 342 期 2025 年第 16 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 政策加码下城投科创债有望持续扩容 江苏泰州推动存量定向融资清零 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 16 期 本期要点 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 闫彦明 ymyan01@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 15 期】政治局会议提出将适时推出增量 政策，广东深化投融资体制改革和城投转 型，2025-04-29 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 14 期】财政部隐债问责通报案例首涉 PPP 项目，河南发布国企境外债管理办法 意见稿，2025-04-24 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 13 期】拟成立专项基金加大收储力度， 地方债存量规模突破 50 万亿，2025- ...