美元/日元日内跌幅扩大至0.5%，报143.47。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court blocking Trump's tariff policy has led to a surge in market optimism, with the emergence of a new trading strategy known as "TACO trading," which capitalizes on the expectation that Trump will backtrack on his aggressive trade policies [1][6][7]. Market Reactions - Major Asian stock indices and U.S. futures rose significantly following the court's decision, reversing previous declines [3][4]. - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.5% to 38,263.36 points, while U.S. futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 1.2%, 1.6%, and 1.7% respectively [3][5]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.508%, indicating a shift in market focus from monetary policy to fiscal concerns [5]. TACO Trading Strategy - The "TACO trading" strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," has gained traction among traders who anticipate that Trump will retract his harsh tariff announcements after initial market declines [6][7]. - This strategy was recently validated when Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU goods, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock markets [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that investors have begun to understand Trump's negotiation tactics, likening his approach to a poker game where he may bluff but ultimately retreats under pressure [7]. Economic Implications - The ruling and subsequent market reactions have implications for countries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as Japan and South Korea, which also saw their stock indices rise [4][6]. - The Bank of Korea's decision to cut interest rates from 2.75% to 2.5% reflects efforts to alleviate economic pressures amid these trade uncertainties [4].

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank analysts suggest that the Japanese yen may strengthen in the short term due to rising ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields and the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will not shift to a rate cut policy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The report indicates skepticism regarding any imminent policy shift by the Bank of Japan, emphasizing that international factors will continue to drive yen appreciation in the near term [1] - Following reports of potential adjustments to Japan's bond issuance plan, ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields experienced a significant decline [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The disappointing results from the 40-year Japanese government bond auction led to a resurgence in yields, highlighting market volatility and investor sentiment [1]

5月28日，日本最新一期超长期国债拍卖结果出炉。日本40年期国债投标倍数为2.21，创2024年7月来新 低。拍卖结果出炉后，日本国债期货延续跌势。 日本超长期国债拍卖遇冷显示市场投资者对于当前的日债价格缺乏信心。5月以来，日本长期国债收益 率经历了快速上行。10年期和20年期日债收益率一度触及2000年以来最高水平，30年期日债收益率甚至 突破了3%。日债动荡正在令全球金融市场经历一场严峻的考验。 日本长债价格大跌或引发全球债市动荡 日本在2000年后长期维持零利率政策，因此日本的养老金、保险、银行，乃至很多国际避险资金，都曾 在低利率环境里长期买入大量的日债。日本长债收益率飙升后，由于债券收益率和价格是反向关系，意 味着债券价格大跌。这些持有大量日本长债的资金，开始面临严重的浮亏风险，给日本乃至全球金融市 场带来了巨大的风险。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对贝壳财经记者表示，若日本国内利率上升可能成为引发全球利率 上升的推手。这种传导机制源于日本投资者大规模平仓"日元套息交易"。日债收益率上升、债券价格下 跌，导致日本投资者被迫抛售美债、美股、欧债等海外资产以回补日债缺口，将可能引发全球流动性紧 缩， ...

美元兑日元短线下挫超30点，现报144.18。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation to Germany for the first time in 34 years, with its net foreign assets reaching a record 533.05 trillion yen by the end of 2024, but still falling short of Germany's 569.65 trillion yen [1][3]. Economic Data - Japan's net foreign assets increased by 12.9% from the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth and surpassing 500 trillion yen for the first time [1]. - Japan's GDP in dollar terms decreased from $5 trillion in 2023 to $4.77 trillion in 2024, dropping to fourth place globally, while Germany's GDP reached $4.8 trillion [1][3]. - As of the end of 2024, Japan's foreign asset balance was 1,659.02 trillion yen, up 11.4% year-on-year, while foreign liabilities were 1,125.97 trillion yen, a 10.7% increase [3][4]. Investment Trends - Japanese companies have increasingly focused on direct investments rather than foreign bonds, with over 40% of reinvested earnings not returning to Japan, indicating a trend towards new investments [6][8]. - The five major Japanese trading companies, favored by Warren Buffett, have a high internationalization ratio, with four of them investing over 45% outside Japan [4]. - In 2024, Japan's investment in the U.S. reached 11.7 trillion yen, accounting for nearly 40% of its total foreign investments, the highest level since 2014 [4]. Currency and Economic Challenges - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate reaching 157.89 yen per dollar by the end of 2024, an 11.7% increase from the previous year [3][5]. - Japan's economy faced a contraction in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP declining by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, attributed to weak personal consumption and external demand [5][6]. Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan is facing challenges in balancing its bond yield policies and quantitative easing, leading to supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7][8]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability are affecting investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds, with potential implications for future investment strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue due to the significant drop in Japanese government bond yields [1] Group 1: Currency Analysis - Analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen is limited by the recent substantial decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - Market speculation indicates that Japan is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plans to support ultra-long-term bonds, contributing to the lower yields [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The report notes that despite the yen's weakness, factors such as weak demand for the dollar, unpredictable trade policies from President Trump, and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year could lead to renewed buying of the yen [1]

据报道，消息人士表示，日本财务省将考虑削减超长期债券的发行。日本政府顾问小组警告日债收益 率上升将对财政造成冲击。 此前，超长期日本国债收益率飙升，机构相继发出警告，日债危机会否触发？外溢冲击如何？浙商银 行财富管理部总行投顾周锦舜分析认为，日本财政扩张倾向叠加国债拍卖遇冷 ，市场担心超长日债 供需失衡。本次日元套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲击或相对可控。关注后续日债拍卖情况 以及日本央行会否入场干预。超长期日债目前已被低估，回调后价值有所凸显。 今日午后，日本股债汇明显异动，日本国债市场大涨。日本40年国债收益率跌超3%，至3.424%； 30年期国债收益率下跌20个基点至2.835%， 为自5月8日以来的最低水平；日本20年期国债收益率 跌17.5个基点。对应地，日本6年期以上国债全线上涨。美国长期限国债收益率也全线杀跌，美国30 年期国债大跌1.25%，20年期收益率大跌1.17%，10年期收益率跌近0.9%。 与此同时，汇市也有大变化。美元兑日元短线拉升超60点，目前报143.10。欧元兑美元半小时左右 走低约20点，报1.1375。美元指数重回99上方。日经指数午后也是持续拉升。截至收盘，日经 ...

金十数据5月27日讯，野村证券全球市场研究分析师表示，美元/日元的看跌立场在6月份看来仍是有效 的。分析师们在一份报告中说，美国以国家安全为由征收额外行业关税的可能性仍然很高，这意味着美 元买盘将继续面临挑战。强势美元削弱了美国出口产品在海外的竞争力。此外，分析人士说，虽然美国 和欧盟达成了推迟关税上调的协议，但美国和欧盟之间的紧张关系仍在继续。分析师补充说，关税对欧 元区经济产生负面影响的担忧可能会导致投资者在抛售美元时青睐日元。 野村证券：美/日的看跌形态可能会持续至6月 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]