商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 LPG：成本端扰动下宽幅震荡 丙烯：供应存增量预期，上行驱动有限 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,242 | 0.02% | 4,290 | 1.13% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,155 | -0.48% | 4,199 | 1.06% | | | PL2601 | 5,959 | -0.10% | 5,980 | 0.35% | | | PL2602 | 5,769 | 0.02% | 5,806 | 0.64% | | | PL2603 | 5,738 | -0.85% | 5,778 | 0.70% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 99,660 | 32866 | 45,188 | -8065 | | 持 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 LLDPE：单边下跌，基差再度转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6561 | 0.06% | 601624 | -72250 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -61 | | 1 3 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -38 | | -53 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6500 | | 6570 | | | | 华 东 | 6700 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6600 | | 6670 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面承压下行，华北 LL 基差昨日暂时升水后，今天 LL 现货加速下跌；仓单近 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: なな女 - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ★☆☆ - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ - Plastic: ★☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Ethylene Glycol: なな女 - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are under downward pressure, while some have certain support factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, and raw material price fluctuations. [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined due to increased supply and weakened downstream buying sentiment, but inventory control provided some support [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell. Polyethylene had weak spot prices due to sufficient supply and low downstream demand. Polypropylene faced increased production and limited demand, resulting in an imbalanced supply - demand situation [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had low - level fluctuations, with falling spot prices and high port inventory, but future supply - demand pressure may ease. Consider long - short spreads on dips in the medium term [3]. - Styrene futures declined due to falling crude oil prices, weak pure benzene fundamentals, and expected increased supply [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA continued to fall due to lower oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5]. - Ethylene glycol had a slight rebound but still faced supply pressure, with long - term pressure from planned new production [5]. - Short fiber's load was high, with a slight inventory increase. Its long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand weakened, with a weak processing margin and over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fell, while the spot market was relatively stable. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply - demand factors [6]. - Urea futures were firm in a range. Although there was inventory reduction, high production and weakening market sentiment may lead to continued range - bound trading [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline due to weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate in a low - level range [7]. - Caustic soda was at a low level, with high inventory, increased production, and weak demand, leading to profit compression [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell below 1100 yuan due to cost and supply pressure, with a high - inventory situation. It is in a long - term supply - surplus pattern [8]. - Glass continued to decline. Although there was inventory reduction, recent sales weakened, and long - term cold - repair may be forced by low profits [8].

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for European shipping futures has seen a significant increase, with a daily rise of 5%, reaching 1694 points [1]. Group 1 - The European shipping futures market is experiencing a notable upward trend, indicating potential bullish sentiment among investors [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot side, for linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 150 yuan. For拉丝PP, Sinopec maintained stability and PetroChina cut some prices by 30 yuan. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, with demand steadily releasing. However, market sentiment was still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the current rebound, it generally remains in a low - level oscillation process [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6557, 6610, and 6656 respectively, with price drops of 86, 98, and 98 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, and - 1.45%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6192, 6280, and 6322, with price drops of 83, 90, and 87 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.32%, - 1.41%, and - 1.36% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 228488, 193612, and 2327 respectively, and the open interests were 339262, 359775, and 5745, with open interest changes of - 34931, 43792, and 656. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September were 245848, 139975, and 3064, and the open interests were 411158, 341176, and 18638, with open interest changes of - 11906, 22036, and 718 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 46, and 99 respectively, compared with previous values of - 65, - 46, and 111. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 88, - 42, and 130, compared with previous values of - 95, - 39, and 134 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2070 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2094 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6750 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6200 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (December 9), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.12 - $59.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55 or 0.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.83 - $62.78 [2]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251210 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251210 | | 短纤2601 | 昨日 6180 | 前日 6220 | 变化 -40 | PF01-02 | 昨日 -2 | 前日 -6 | 变化 ব | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6182 | 6226 | -44 | PF02-03 | 8 | 12 | -4 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6174 | 6214 | -40 | PF主力基差 | 108 | 74 | 34 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 172136 | 174928 | -2792 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 290 | 6. 300 | -10 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190815 昨日 | 182124 前日 | 8691 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 66% 昨日 | 50% 前日 | 16% 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 5576 | 5628 | -52 | PR0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly indicated [1] - Bottle Chips: Not clearly indicated [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and device operations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Production enterprises had smooth shipments, but the overall trading atmosphere was average. Downstream demand provided some support, but the upward momentum of prices was insufficient [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. For polyethylene, supply was abundant, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. For polypropylene, supply pressure was controllable due to concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand showed signs of weakening [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures closed below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The spot price in East China declined slightly. There was pressure in the short - term, but the supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures closed down slightly. The decline in crude oil prices made it difficult to drive the rise of styrene, but the supply - demand structure supported the price [3] Polyester - The decline in oil prices dragged down PX and PTA prices. The load of PX decreased slightly, and the output of PTA increased slightly. The supply - demand drive of the industry chain was limited [4] - Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly in the late trading. The market faced inventory - building pressure due to increased supply and seasonal decline in demand. Short - term device shutdowns would relieve the supply pressure, but long - term pressure remained [4] - Short - fiber load ran at a high level, and inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the long - term pressure was over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fluctuated weakly. The port inventory was expected to remain high. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly, and it would mainly fluctuate weakly within a range [5] - Urea prices declined slightly. Last week, urea production enterprises destocked. The supply was still high, and the market sentiment cooled down. The market was expected to oscillate and correct [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline. The supply pressure might be relieved if enterprises were forced to overhaul. The export situation improved, but the domestic demand was weak. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, but the support for the liquid caustic soda price was limited. The industry faced high inventory pressure and would continue to compress profits [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 硅铁：工厂复产情绪冲击，宽幅震荡 锰硅：市场多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5474 | -72 | 403,523 | 262,736 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2605 | 5436 | -70 | 24,325 | 57,395 | | | 锰 硅2601 | 5746 | -32 | 68,664 | 147,717 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5796 | -32 | 63 ...