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【期货盯盘神器专属文章】8月天气利好作物生长,美豆价格再创阶段性新低,价格何时见底?
news flash· 2025-08-01 00:21
8月天气利好作物生长,美豆价格再创阶段性新低,价格何时见底? 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...
【期货热点追踪】美豆出口净销售量超预期,CBOT豆系期货或将延续涨势?点击阅读详情。
news flash· 2025-07-31 12:48
美豆出口净销售量超预期,CBOT豆系期货或将延续涨势?点击阅读详情。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
【期货热点追踪】马棕油期货涨势戛然而止,7月出口下滑近10%!当需求警报拉响,棕榈油的跌势是否才刚刚开始?
news flash· 2025-07-31 10:47
Core Insights - Palm oil futures have halted their upward trend as July exports have declined by nearly 10% [1] - The demand alarm has been raised, suggesting that the downward trend for palm oil may just be beginning [1] Industry Summary - The recent decline in palm oil exports indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, raising concerns about future demand [1] - The halt in the price increase of palm oil futures could signal a broader trend affecting the commodity market [1]
一口气了解期货
小Lin说· 2025-07-31 09:30
期货市场概述 - 期货市场是全球最大、最活跃的交易市场,成交面值甚至超过外汇市场 [1] - 期货合约是甲乙双方约定在未来特定时间以约定价格交易特定商品的合约 [1] - 期货最初用于商品供应商对冲风险,如小麦农商锁定未来卖出价,面粉厂锁定未来买入成本 [1] - 期货市场不仅追踪石油、大豆、黄金等大宗商品价格,还追踪股票、国债等虚拟资产和金融资产,甚至可以追踪股指等虚无指标 [1][2] 期货交易特点与应用 - 期货交易可用于对冲、投机,本质上是对未来价格的对赌,一切指标皆可期货化、交易化 [1][2] - 市场上绝大多数期货交易者不在交割日持有到期,而是在交割日前清仓 [2] - 期货产品主要包括利率类(如SOFR期货)、股票类(如股指期货)和大宗商品类 [2][3] - 期货交易具有高杠杆、易于做空和隐秘性三大特点 [3] 期货市场风险与案例 - 对冲基金利用期货市场进行投机,例如可可豆期货暴涨案例,对冲基金押注可可豆减产 [1] - 索罗斯利用期货做空英镑,通过期货市场放大攻击力,对现货市场产生压力,最终导致英镑崩盘 [4][5] - 亚洲金融危机中,空头们做空东南亚货币,与东南亚央行在外汇储备上进行博弈,核心战场也在期货市场 [5]
【期货盯盘神器案例分享】今日焦煤涨幅有所收窄,棉花价格跌跌不休,如何从价格、成交量和持仓量的关系洞察主力动向?
news flash· 2025-07-30 12:30
Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in coal and cotton prices, highlighting the narrowing increase in coking coal prices and the continuous decline in cotton prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Coking coal prices have experienced a reduction in their growth rate, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - Cotton prices are on a downward trend, suggesting ongoing challenges in the cotton market [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The relationship between price, trading volume, and open interest is emphasized as a key indicator for understanding the movements of major market players [1]
【期货热点追踪】强势收回本周所有跌幅!工业硅还能趁多晶硅这股“东风”涨多久?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-30 11:46
期货热点追踪 强势收回本周所有跌幅!工业硅还能趁多晶硅这股"东风"涨多久?点击了解。 相关链接 ...
【期货热点追踪】碳酸锂下探昨日低点后反弹,午盘录得收涨,消息扰动有所减少,后市应该如何布局?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-30 11:32
碳酸锂下探昨日低点后反弹,午盘录得收涨,消息扰动有所减少,后市应该如何布局?点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
【期货热点追踪】基本面依然看跌,产量持续上升,为什么马棕油期货还在涨?
news flash· 2025-07-30 04:16
期货热点追踪 基本面依然看跌,产量持续上升,为什么马棕油期货还在涨? 相关链接 ...
【期货热点追踪】美国关税大棒周五落地!哪些商品受影响最大?市场如何反应?
news flash· 2025-07-30 02:51
美国关税大棒周五落地!哪些商品受影响最大?市场如何反应? 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
光大期货工业硅日报(2025年7月30日)-20250730
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].