Inflation Overview - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, with a slight month-on-month deceleration to 0.2% [2][10] - Core CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3.1%, while core services remained unchanged [4][10] Energy and Food Prices - Energy inflation decreased, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year decline of -1.6%, and gasoline prices dropping by 9.5% [6] - Food prices also saw a cooling effect, contributing to the overall inflation dynamics [10] Service Sector Dynamics - Core services year-on-year growth was stable at 3.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [7] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent slightly decreasing to 4.1% [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs had a mild impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth rising to 1.2% [9] - The prices of used cars surged by 4.8%, influenced by tariffs, although a potential decline in used car prices is expected in the coming months [9] Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to a 94% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [10] - The average expected rate cuts for the year are approximately 2.4 times [10] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation among consumers dropped to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns [12]

张尧浠：9月超幅降息预期升温、金价多头蓄力等待蠢蠢欲动 上交易日周二(8月12日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，收取止跌形态，虽未收线在中轨上方，但也暗示后市下方空间有限，如进一步走低，100日均线支撑位置， 也是可以再度入场看涨，如今日收线在5日均线上方，则会加大看涨动力，继续等待再度测试3440美元附近阻力压制。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3342.73美元/盎司，日内整体处于持续的震荡走盘行情，于美盘时段振幅有所扩大，先行录得日内低点3331.22美元，又迅速 回升录得日内高点3358.67美元，最后遇阻回撤，窄幅盘整，收于3347.97美元，日振幅27.45美元，收涨5.24美元，涨幅0.16%。 影响上，因数据显示美国7月通胀仅温和上涨，保留了美联储下月降息的可能性。再加上特朗普再次炮轰鲍威尔，美财长也甚至建议降息50个基点，限制 了金价跌幅，使其震荡收涨。 日内日重点关注的数据及事件，将受到周二数据的延续性影响，以及周四初请和PPI数据预期的指引，也就是仍还是偏向震荡走盘。多头预计周五将开始 发力。 基本面上，黄金税的谣言已经落幕，中美关税再度迎来阶段性的缓和依然落地，这使得金价在回落后目前有所利空出尽，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - US inflation is lower than expected, maintaining market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while Japanese stock markets follow the rise of US stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.2% in the first few minutes of trading, surpassing the 43,000-point mark for the first time in history, reaching a high of 43,241.27 points [1] - The Topix index also hit a record high, with an intraday increase of 0.8%, reaching 3,092.05 points [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Electronic and automotive stocks led the gains, with Advantest increasing by 3.5% and Subaru rising by 2.2% [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring US tariff news and domestic political developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in September and will lower rates twice within the year [1] Inflation and Tariffs - July inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is relatively mild [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. shows that after tariffs are announced, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks (3-4 months) [1] - Due to weak perceived demand, companies only pass on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers, preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Future Outlook - With an expected increase in tariffs in August, core inflation may continue to rise moderately [1] - Weak corporate demand and a weakening labor market will constrain the extent of inflation increases [1] - The slowdown in demand and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants suggest that the labor market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push prices up, although at a slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a prolonged but milder impact on prices due to a slower transfer of costs from businesses to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more gradual and prolonged impact on prices, as the ability of companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers remains intact [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more moderate and prolonged impact on prices due to a slower pass-through to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The company now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, which reduces the constraints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The report maintains the prediction of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. (2025) shows that after the announcement of tariffs, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks, indicating a rapid transmission of tariffs [1] Group 2 - Despite the rapid transmission of tariffs, companies are only passing on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers due to weak perceived demand, which prevents a larger increase in inflation [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that the rise in tariffs in August may continue to moderately push up core inflation, but weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflation increases [1] - The report highlights that demand slowdown and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

中金公司发布研究报告称，美国7月核心CPI季调环比上涨0.3%，同比由2.9%反弹至3.1%，高于市场预期；整体CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比维持在2.7%，略 低于预期。从分项来看，7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征：关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一些此前下跌的服务价格转 为上涨，增加了通胀的粘性。维持此前判断，美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上， 与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大大提升，市场波动将加剧。 7月通胀呈现商品温和，服务反弹的特征。商品方面，关税成本仍在向消费者传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。核心商品价格指数季调环比增长0.2%，增 幅与上月持平。其中，家具床具(环比+0.9%)、窗帘(+1.2%)、音视频设备(+0.8%)、摄影设备(+2.1%)仍然保持较高增速，显示关税成本持续传导。但也有 部分此前涨势较猛的项目在7月环比走弱，比如家电(-2.2%)、男装(-1.3%)、非处方药品(-0.5%)、电脑(-2.6%)等。 此前一直没有涨价的汽车价格在7月出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]