Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant bullish surge, breaking through the 4200 mark and entering an accelerated upward trend, with fluctuations expected around this level [1][3][10]. Price Movements - Gold prices reached around 4260 before experiencing a pullback, with potential support at the 4200 level and further down at 4155 [4][5][9]. - The market is currently facing resistance at 4260 and 4300, with traders advised to watch for shorting opportunities at these levels [6][9]. Market Influences - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and statements from former President Trump regarding military actions, have contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold [10][11]. - Economic indicators, including unemployment claims and upcoming PCE, PMI, and ISM manufacturing data, are expected to create volatility in the market [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, with a noted emphasis on risk management and following experienced traders for better accuracy [12]. - The gold trading team claims a high accuracy rate of 85% or more, with significant profit potential per trade [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices remained stable, with the market assessing the Federal Reserve's policy signals and adjusting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of 0200 GMT, spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,154.09 per ounce, while December gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,151.20 per ounce [3]. - Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilverCentral, indicated that the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has led to a consolidation phase for gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer signals [3]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to shift towards interest rate-related derivatives to manage volatility from policy uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller noting that a slowing labor market could pressure Treasury yields, suggesting a potential policy adjustment in December [3]. - Conversely, several regional Fed presidents advocate for delaying any easing of policies until inflation data stabilizes closer to the 2% target [3]. - The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a high probability for interest rate cuts in December, as lower interest rates typically enhance gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 3: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Recent employment data showed a slight decline in initial jobless claims, but the job market still does not fully meet job-seeker demand [4]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November due to uncertainties regarding employment and household financial conditions [4]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - In the precious metals market, spot silver decreased by 0.9% to $52.89 per ounce, while platinum rose by 1.4% to $1,611.04 per ounce; palladium fell by 0.9% to $1,409.87 per ounce [4].

现在黄金价格是阶段性的上涨，虽然不是绝对强势的状态，但上涨也比较明显，从4040，到4100，再到 4140，每一个起涨点都形成了一个强势的基础平台，虽然高点冲的不是很明显，但也有上移表现，那 么，维持这种阶段性的上涨走势，看周四，周五伦敦金是否能上冲一波到4200本周的目标。由于今天是 感恩节，美盘休市，今天黄金市场活力集中在亚欧盘，所以，全盘应该没有太大的波动，下方以4140为 支撑看涨，上方以4200为目标结束。 【要闻速递】 从技术面来看，日线周期的强硬还是保持，k线依旧维持在布林中轨之上，上轨的试探还没有完成，立 刻转阴的可能性不大，同时H4上轨的高点也在没有收口，所以，在相对走势下，还有一波慢涨空间， 上面也说过，黄金阶段性平台的支撑在4140，上方就看4200，所以，今天金价亚欧盘逐步看到4200，美 盘休市，预计波动不大，尽量保持观望。 本周公布的美国经济数据呈现分化，但整体未改变市场对美联储政策路径的判断。美国商务部数据显 示，耐用品订单在9月录得0.5%增长，虽然较前值3.0%大幅放缓，但仍高于市场预估的0.3%。扣除运输 后订单增长0.6%，显示制造环节内部仍具韧性。 摘要周四（11月2 ...

11月26日（周三）截至当前交易时段，美元指数报99.740，较前一交易日下跌0.07%，日内呈现窄幅震 荡态势，今开99.811，最高触及99.874，最低下探99.712。这一波动背后，是美国经济数据韧性与美联 储政策预期的博弈，技术面则呈现多空信号交织的特征，需从双重维度梳理趋势逻辑。 美元指数核心驱动力为美联储政策，美国经济数据与非美货币表现构成支撑。当前美国经济"软着陆"迹 象明显：三季度GDP增2.8%，个人消费支出增2.9%，服务业PMI连续12个月扩张，短期限制美元跌幅。 非美货币疲弱为美元提供支撑：日元受日银宽松拖累，英镑因英债与失业问题承压。但欧元区存变数， 10月HICP升2.1%，经济增速预期上修至1.4%，欧元回调空间收窄，将削弱美元动能。 支撑阻力明确：下方99.20为短均线共振支撑，破位或下探98.70；上方100.00-100.30为关键阻力 （100.30为9月来高点），突破可上看101.00。当前指数在99.70-99.90窄幅波动。 美元指数技术分析 技术面呈"短多中空"特征：5日、10日、50日均线多头排列支撑短期行情；年线下行，200天均线 （99.812）成多空关键 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights that despite rising energy and food costs in September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates that the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve may remain stable compared to recent months [1][2] - The PPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month in September, aligning with economists' expectations, following a 0.1% decrease in August [1] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-over-year, marking the mildest increase since July 2024 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup economists estimate that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.19% month-over-month in September, slightly lower than the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.23% [2] - Omar Sharif, an inflation forecaster, predicts that if the core PCE rises by 0.2% month-over-month, the year-over-year increase will drop from 2.9% in August to 2.8% in September [2] Group 3 - The official PCE inflation report is scheduled for release on December 5, which will provide the latest official inflation data for policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10 [3] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the approach to interest rates, with options including a third consecutive 25 basis point cut or maintaining rates to address persistent inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, expresses concern over rising living costs but emphasizes that the Fed's policies should focus on future economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is monitoring the impact of increased living costs on the economy [1] - Future-oriented policy decisions are crucial for the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges [1]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月25日｜Kudotrade的分析师Konstantinos Chrysikos表示，尽管美联储的下一步政策行动存在更 广泛的不确定性，但地缘政治紧张局势仍在支撑金价。他表示："主导地缘政治背景的仍是中东的不稳 定和东欧重新出现的紧张局势。虽然外交渠道仍在探索俄乌潜在协议的轮廓，但仍难以取得有意义的进 展。"与此同时，Chrysikos表示，投资需求也显现出韧性，亚洲强劲需求推动黄金ETF资金持续流入。 随着美联储临近年内最后一次政策会议，投资者正密切关注延迟发布的美国经济数据，这些数据有望更 清晰地揭示劳动力市场趋势和通胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4,100 per ounce, showing strong resilience despite a potential downward adjustment in the coming months [1][3] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by Federal Reserve policy, with a 79% probability of a rate cut next month, although opinions among research institutions vary [3] - Inflation trends and holiday consumer spending are key variables affecting market expectations, with holiday shopping projected to reach $1 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% to 4.2% [3] Structural Risks and Long-term Outlook - Increased investment demand has led to concerns about market volatility due to new entrants lacking experience in a complete gold bear market [4] - Historical patterns indicate that gold price adjustments can be sharper and deeper than expected, with potential for significant short-term fluctuations if crowded trades are unwound [4] - Despite potential short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold remains solid, with a 15% price adjustment still maintaining key support levels [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is on a "K-shaped" trajectory, where the wealthy are thriving while ordinary families struggle financially [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 5.5%, have exacerbated this divide, acting as a "double-edged sword" [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Credit card delinquency rates have surged to a 15-year high, with bad debt ratios exceeding 9.5%, indicating financial strain among lower-income households [4] - Ordinary families are forced to make difficult financial choices, such as switching from premium brands to cheaper alternatives [1][4] Corporate Landscape - Large tech companies are investing heavily in AI, with Nvidia's graphics card orders extending three years into the future, showcasing a stark contrast to the struggles of small and medium enterprises [4] - High interest rates are crippling small businesses, hindering their ability to invest in equipment and hire talent [4] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation, balancing the need to lower interest rates to prevent a wave of defaults while fearing inflation resurgence [5] - Any potential interest rate cuts may provide temporary relief for consumers but could further inflate asset bubbles for the wealthy [5] Policy Implications - A more equitable tax system and improved social safety nets are suggested as necessary reforms to address the underlying issues of wealth inequality [7] - The current economic policies are leading to a scenario where recovery benefits a select few, while the majority continue to struggle [9]