逆周期和跨周期调节
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(经济观察)中国明年财政和货币政策 “存量”与“增量”作何解?
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-11 12:30
Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for the upcoming year, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness and support economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain strong support to expand demand and optimize structure, with a focus on implementing existing policies effectively [1] - The integration of existing and new fiscal policies is highlighted, with an emphasis on utilizing existing resources and improving policy transmission efficiency [1][2] - The continuation of debt replacement work is expected to address local government hidden debt issues [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose to provide a low-cost funding environment for economic operations [1] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, with attention to fiscal expenditure structure, deficit arrangements, and the issuance of special bonds [2] - The role of monetary policy includes stabilizing the environment and supporting economic recovery [2] Group 3: Policy Integration - The concept of "integrated effects of existing and new policies" is a new addition, emphasizing the need for alignment between existing and future policies [1] - The collaboration between fiscal policy as a demand driver and monetary policy as a stabilizing agent is essential for economic recovery [2] - Global economic conditions, including high interest rates and debt levels, necessitate a stronger interaction between fiscal and monetary policies [2]
中央经济工作会议,极简版要点来了!
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-11 12:14
来源:三里河 时间:2025年12月10日至11日 事件:中央经济工作会议在北京举行 要点:总结2025年经济工作,分析当前经济形势,部署2026年经济工作 总结2025年经济工作 必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合 必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战 经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 现代化产业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出新步伐 重点领域风险化解取得积极进展,民生保障更加有力 "十四五"即将圆满收官,第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局 五个"必须" 必须充分挖掘经济潜能 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举 必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好" 形势研判 我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少,外部环境变化影响加深,国内供强需弱矛盾突出,重点领域 风险隐患较多。 这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题,经过努力是可以解决的,我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势 没有改变。 要坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战,不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 部署2026年经济工作 ——政策取向 坚持稳中求进、提质增效 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 提升宏观经济治理效能 ——财政政策 把促进经 ...
中央最新定调!事关降准降息、股市楼市等新表述
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-11 12:09
12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行,深刻分析当前经济形势,系统部署2026年经济工作。 会议指出,明年经济工作在政策取向上,要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。 作为备受关注的货币政策与财政政策指引,会议指出,保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量, 加强财政科学管理,优化财政支出结构,规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难,兜牢 基层"三保"底线。 货币政策方面,要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具,保持流动性充裕,畅通货币政策传导机制,引导金 融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 记者通过梳理发现,相比2024年中央经济工作会议,在货币政策方面,本次会议内容继续强调"实施适 度宽松的货币政策",但"适时降准降息,保持流动性充裕"表述调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具,保持流动性充裕",并把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量,同时强 调"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、 ...
定调2026年经济工作,十大要点全解读
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-11 11:42
新华社12月11日消息,中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议强调,做好明年经济工作,要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性,持续 扩大内需、优化供给,做优增量、盘活存量,因地制宜发展新质生产力,纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设,持续防范化解重点领域风险,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长,保持社会和谐稳定,实现"十五五"良好开局。 要点一:加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 会议指出,明年经济工作在政策取向上,要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。 申万宏源证券(000562)首席经济学家赵伟预计,后续政策更加注重财政与货币、总量与结构、存量盘 活与增量优化的协同发力,通过强化政策协同与存量增量联动,实现稳增长与提质增效的双重目标。 明年政策节奏值得关注。国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛认为,如果外部环境相对平稳,则以用好存量政 策空间为主;如果外部环境发生变化,更大力度的增量政策可以相机而动。 要点二:保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量 会议指出,要继续实施更加积极的财政 ...
内需主导、创新驱动,中央部署明年八大重点任务
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 11:29
据新华社消息,中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出,明年经济工作在政策取向 上,要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度, 提升宏观经济治理效能。 会议部署了八大重点任务,包括坚持内需主导,建设强大国内市场;坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动 能;坚持改革攻坚,增强高质量发展动力活力;坚持对外开放,推动多领域合作共赢;坚持协调发展, 促进城乡融合和区域联动;坚持"双碳"引领,推动全面绿色转型;坚持民生为大,努力为人民群众多办 实事;坚持守牢底线,积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年。中央经济工作会议在此关键节点召开,肩负着为"十五五"开篇定调、 绘制蓝图的历史使命,其政策取向将直接影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。 今年中国经济在内外部风险挑战中表现出强劲的韧性。前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%,全年增速呈"前高 后低"走势。 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,提升宏观经济治理效能。 一年一度的中央经济工作会议召开,为实现"十五五"良好开局指明了施政方向。 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜表示 ...
中央经济工作会议:保持流动性充裕
Wind万得· 2025-12-11 10:22
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy approach, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [2] - The meeting highlighted the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and overall expenditure, while optimizing the structure of fiscal spending and regulating tax incentives and subsidies [2] - It was stressed that addressing local fiscal difficulties is crucial, ensuring the baseline for basic public services is secured, and maintaining strict financial discipline within government agencies [2] Group 2 - The article advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [2] - It mentions the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and facilitate the transmission of monetary policy [2] - The importance of keeping the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level is also highlighted, along with the need for consistency and effectiveness in macroeconomic policy orientation [2]
中央经济工作会议:灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具,保持流动性充裕
第一财经· 2025-12-11 10:16
Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy approach, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] Fiscal Policy - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and overall expenditure [1] - There will be an emphasis on optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures and regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [1] - Addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level will be prioritized [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] - The use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions will be flexible and efficient [1] - The aim is to keep liquidity ample and ensure smooth transmission of monetary policy, supporting key areas like domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1] Policy Coordination - There will be an enhancement of consistency and effectiveness in macro policy orientation, integrating various economic and non-economic policies [1] - A mechanism for managing expectations will be established to boost social confidence [1]
中央经济工作会议:灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-11 10:06
Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy for the upcoming year, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while enhancing macroeconomic governance [1] Fiscal Policy - The conference advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and regulating tax incentives and subsidies [1] - Attention is drawn to addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring the basic "three guarantees" at the grassroots level [1] - Strict financial discipline is emphasized, urging government agencies to adopt frugal practices [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - The use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions will be flexible and efficient to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The aim is to guide financial institutions to support key areas like expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is also a priority [1] Policy Coordination - There is a call for enhanced consistency and effectiveness in macroeconomic policy orientation, integrating various economic and non-economic policies into a cohesive evaluation framework [1] - The establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism is crucial to boost social confidence [1]
中央经济工作会议:灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具 保持流动性充裕
财联社· 2025-12-11 10:00
Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy approach, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] Group 1: Policy Directions - The conference advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and regulating tax incentives and subsidies [1] - There is a strong emphasis on addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring the basic financial security of grassroots levels [1] - The need for a moderately loose monetary policy is highlighted, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] Group 2: Implementation Strategies - The use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions is encouraged to maintain ample liquidity and facilitate the transmission of monetary policy [1] - Financial institutions are urged to increase support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - The conference stresses the importance of maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 3: Policy Coordination - There is a call for enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policy orientations, integrating various economic and non-economic policies into a cohesive evaluation framework [1] - The establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism is deemed necessary to boost social confidence [1]
中央政治局会议定调财政新航向:以“更加积极”实现经济稳增长
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-12-11 08:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy for 2026, aiming to enhance macroeconomic governance and address economic recovery effectively [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of precise and effective fiscal spending, focusing on structural adjustments to reduce inefficient expenditures and increase support for education, healthcare, and other social sectors [1][2] - The shift from "moderately forceful" to "more proactive" fiscal policy indicates a significant change in macroeconomic regulation, aiming to strengthen the economic recovery trend [1] Group 2 - The central economic work meeting has consistently deepened this policy framework throughout the year, elevating the focus from short-term pressure responses to a strategic approach that balances annual goals with long-term growth [2] - The proactive fiscal policy for 2025 is not seen as a temporary measure but as a strategic layout ahead of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aimed at addressing demand shortages and weak expectations through counter-cyclical adjustments [2] - Fiscal spending will prioritize technology, green initiatives, and public welfare, with a focus on addressing regional disparities and supporting low-income urban populations to achieve better living standards [2]