1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that consumption is showing signs of recovery, while different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying trends. The weekly economic index has rebounded, with both production and demand sub - indices rising. However, there are also areas of decline, such as in real estate sales and some export price indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 6.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 7.9%, up 0.1 percentage points, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was - 2.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production last week was 25.1%, a 9.7 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.3%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipment rate last week was 39.8%, down 0.3 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 37.9%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities last week was - 14.3%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 13.0%, a 11.0 - percentage - point decline [1]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the daily average retail sales of passenger cars last week was 8.0%, a 12.0 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was 45.6%, up 18.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.0%, up 1.4 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - August was 18.0%, a 22.3 - percentage - point increase from the first ten - day period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) last week was - 54.4%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 17.6%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index last week was - 9.2%, a 2.0 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 23.3%, down 2.4 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 18.1%, down 2.6 percentage points [2]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index last week was 3.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 14.4%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was 2.5%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 19.0%, up 2.1 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was - 10.1%, up 0.4 percentage points [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

on set. Two of our favorite people, Kevin Gordon of Schwab, Francis Donald with RBC Capital Markets. Thank you for joining us.It's Brian. Nice to see you. So, I'm reading Pal's speech here, Kevin.Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods. We expect the effects of tariffs to accumulate over coming months with high uncertainty about timing and amounts. I I could read this and actually make the case for a rate hike.Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think he to me the speech was all about balan ...

Market Trends & Fed Policy - Morgan Stanley indicates that CPI (Consumer Price Index 消费者价格指数) and jobs data will guide the Federal Reserve's decisions [1] - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will not be the primary factor influencing the Fed's policy decisions [1]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley says the Fed will be guided by CPI and jobs data, not Jackson Hole. https://t.co/NHbe302Emr ...

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - UK CPI inflation reached 3.8%, significantly exceeding the Bank of England's 2% target [1] - Real interest rates are negative when using RPIX, the old target [1] - Further cuts in Bank rate in 2025 appear less probable [1]

每经AI快讯，8月19日，加拿大7月CPI环比增加0.3%，预期增加0.3%，前值增加0.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The article provides a forward-looking analysis of global economic events and data releases for the upcoming week, focusing on the potential for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] - Key economic indicators to watch include US housing market data, Canadian CPI, UK and Eurozone CPI, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, global PMI data, and German GDP along with UK retail sales [1] Group 2 - On Monday and Tuesday, the US housing market data will be released, including the NAHB housing market index and July new housing starts and building permits, indicating resilience in the US residential construction sector despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty [3] - The Canadian CPI for July will also be released, with market expectations suggesting the Bank of Canada may maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, potentially lowering rates to 2.25% by year-end [3] Group 3 - On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to weak labor market data and low inflation expectations, following a significant rate reduction of 225 basis points since last August [5] - The UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be closely monitored, with the UK CPI unexpectedly rising to its highest level in over a year, which may influence the Bank of England's future decisions [5] Group 4 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, providing insights into the Fed's stance on interest rate cuts, while the Jackson Hole global central bank conference will feature key speeches, including one from Fed Chair Powell [6][7] - Initial PMI data for August will be released, with a focus on manufacturing and services sectors across various countries, indicating potential economic expansion or contraction [6] Group 5 - On Friday, attention will turn to Germany's second-quarter GDP final value, which is expected to confirm a 0.1% contraction, alongside retail sales data from the UK and Canada [9] - The UK retail sales for July are anticipated to show a continuation of the rebound seen in the previous month, driven by seasonal factors [9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].