Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，降息预期强化，另外地缘局势升级扩大中，黄金有支撑。中 | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金资产配置需求强 | | ★★ | | 烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | | | 降息预期和对经济前景不确定性共同作用，白银高位震荡。白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 多单持有 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，美就业数据疲软，美联储降息几乎板上钉钉，中东地缘风险 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 激增，美元指数走弱，金九银十旺季预期叠加供应或边际收敛，建议铜前期多单继 | | ★ | | 续持有，中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪回暖，伦锌走强，带动沪锌止跌反弹，但继续上行需要更多宏微共 | | 锌 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the impact of economic indicators and Federal Reserve monetary policy on gold prices, highlighting a strong consensus on an imminent interest rate cut [1][2] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent peak at $3674.36 per ounce, reflecting a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data indicates a mixed picture, with a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, alongside a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations for a looser monetary policy [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite some signs of buyer fatigue in recent price movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market, with a potential resistance level at $3650 and support around $3610, suggesting a cautious trading approach [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts support the price of gold, but the slight rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of gold and silver. The current round of gold price increase may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The incident of a Russian drone being shot down by NATO in Poland raises geopolitical risks, and the 0.1% month - on - month decline in the US August PPI strengthens the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The London gold price slightly回调 to around $3630 per ounce, waiting for the US August CPI data. The market generally expects the US August overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. Gold prices fluctuated sideways from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure, and started a new round of upward trend in early September [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, multiple factors drove the gold price to break through the $3500 mark, starting a new upward trend [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 833.34, down 0.36%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9829, up 0.04%; the Gold T + D closed at 826.50, down 0.39%; the Silver T + D closed at 9774, down 0.10% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Event**: Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone in its airspace with the support of NATO, which is the first time a Western military alliance member has opened fire during the Russia - Ukraine war. Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that it had no intention of hitting any targets in Poland [17]. - **Trade Policy**: Mexico will raise tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50% to protect domestic employment. The EU is unlikely to impose high tariffs on India or China at Trump's request, but plans to include banks in two Central Asian countries and Chinese refineries in the 19th round of sanctions [17][18]. - **Economic Data**: The US August PPI unexpectedly dropped 0.1% month - on - month. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again based on the weak producer inflation data [17].

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间9月12日凌晨，国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌 0.23%报3673.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨1.12%报42.07美元/盎司。市场普遍预期美国财政部将调 整货币政策框架，美联储也将降息。 消息面上，美国资管机构Crescat Capital宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔近日发布一组数据显示，除美联储外， 全球央行储备中黄金占比自1996年以来首次超越美国国债。这宣告了黄金正式登顶全球央行储备资产。 长江证券近日撰文认为，央行增持黄金反映的是国际社会对美元的信任度正在下降，根本原因是美国自 身债务高企透支美元信用，叠加全球秩序面临重构推动央行购金以规避地缘政治风险，特别是新兴经济 体出于发展、安全等因素考虑，多会选择减持美元资产、增持黄金。 展望后市，长江证券判断，长期来看地缘政治风险和政治极化仍在加剧，央行购金已从短期避险行为演 变为长期战略选择；同时，当前全球主要国家军费占 GDP 比重均处于历史低位，表明各国在国防投入 上相对克制，为金价下行风险设置了"安全垫"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, influenced by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims and a slight increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 27,000 in initial jobless claims, reaching 263,000, which was above market expectations of 235,000, suggesting a dovish stance on monetary policy [1] - The CPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the previous month, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates during its monetary policy meeting [1] - Gold prices have increased by over 38% this year, while silver prices have risen by more than 42%, indicating a strong performance in precious metals amid uncertainty [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts a further increase in gold prices by approximately 5%, expecting the price to reach $3800 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of long - short factors intertwined in the oil price may continue. Global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+'s production - increasing tendency will limit the upside of oil prices, while unexpected geopolitical risk escalations or significant macro - economic policy changes may support and rebound oil prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - OPEC+ approved an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in daily oil production starting from October 2025 and plans to continue this production - increasing rhythm until September 2026, accelerating the release of a total capacity of 1.65 million barrels per day [3] - US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since February this year [20] Demand - side - In the second quarter of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global crude oil demand slowed down from 1.1% in the first quarter to 0.7%, mainly due to the continuous weakening of the global economy. The demand in the US, an important crude oil consumer, weakened significantly due to seasonal factors last week [3] Inventory - As of September 5, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels [3][41] Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - Supply - demand looseness dominates the fundamentals in the second half of the year. There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil [55][56] Reasons for the Loose Supply - demand Situation - Non - OPEC supply has a rigid increase. From 2025 to 2026, non - OPEC production increased from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production only increased slightly by 0.7 million barrels per day. US shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production [60] - OPEC+ production cuts are ineffective. In September 2025, OPEC+ completely withdrew from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, but the increase in non - OPEC production completely offset its efforts [60] - OECD demand has stagnated. After August 2025, it has been continuously below 46.5 million barrels per day, and in January 2026, it suddenly dropped to 44.8 million barrels per day (-3.4% month - on - month) [60] - Non - OECD demand fluctuates violently. It reached a peak of 59.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, but suddenly dropped to 58.3 million barrels per day (-1.8%) in October 2026 [60] - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years. In 2025, there was positive inventory every month except December, and in 2026, there was only a short - term inventory draw in December. The cumulative surplus of crude oil exceeded 2.6 billion barrels [60] - There is storage capacity pressure. On January 2026, the single - day inventory accumulation reached 2.6 million barrels, a peak in the cycle, implying that storage costs will erode the oil price margin [60] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical and sanction factors. In August, Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments decreased, and Iran's high - sulfur exports also declined. China's low - sulfur fuel oil production in August was 1.06 million tons, a 4.6% increase from July, but the cumulative production from January to August was about 7.8 million tons, a decrease of about 19% compared with the same period last year [6] Demand - High - sulfur fuel oil demand lacks growth points as the power generation demand in the Middle East and other regions decreases seasonally after the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and the refinery feeding demand also declines with the weakening of gasoline consumption. Low - sulfur fuel oil demand shows some resilience, supported by the unexpected recovery of global shipping demand, but it also faces long - term competition from alternative energy sources [7] Inventory - In the week of September 10, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels to a two - week low of 26.528 million barrels. In the week of September 8, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory rebounded strongly by 28% to 7.095 million barrels. In the week of September 5, the fuel oil inventory in the ARA region decreased by 4.4% to 1 million tons, but its inventory level is still higher than the five - year average [7]

周四亚市交易时段，现货黄金于 3630 美元 / 盎司价位附近呈现震荡态势。IEXS盈十证券（IEXS外汇） 资深分析师指出，当前黄金市场多空力量正处于微妙博弈阶段，而晚间即将公布的美国 CPI 数据，或 将成为打破僵局、引领金价走势的关键风向标。 从基本面来看，多重利好因素共同构筑起黄金的看涨基调。近期，美联储 9 月降息预期持续升温，市场 已完全定价 25 个基点的降息幅度，且降息 50 个基点的概率也大幅升至 10%。在全球经济前景充满不 确定性的背景下，降息预期的增强使得持有黄金的机会成本降低，吸引了众多投资者的目光。与此同 时，欧洲、中东地区地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，地缘政治风险的加剧让黄金的避险属性再度凸显，成 为投资者规避风险、保值增值的重要资产配置选择。 然而，美元指数尚未出现加速下行趋势，这在一定程度上限制了金价的涨幅。作为黄金的重要竞争对 手，美元的表现对黄金价格有着直接影响。当美元指数走弱时，以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来 说变得更加便宜，从而刺激需求，推动金价上涨；反之，美元的坚挺则会抑制黄金的上行空间。当前， 美元指数的相对稳定，使得黄金多头难以形成有效的突破力量。 IEXS盈十 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the potential impact of a proposed executive order by the Trump administration aimed at restricting experimental drugs and clinical data from China, which has led to a decline in the stock prices of several Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies listed in both A-shares and H-shares markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the news, stocks of Chinese innovative drug companies such as BeiGene and I-Mab experienced varying degrees of decline in the U.S. market [1]. - The proposed executive order is seen as a response to concerns over China's rise in biotechnology and its implications for the U.S. industry [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Implications - The draft order suggests that U.S. pharmaceutical companies will face stricter scrutiny for acquiring drug rights from Chinese firms, requiring mandatory reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2]. - The FDA would impose stricter reviews and higher regulatory fees, potentially hindering reliance on clinical trial data from Chinese patients [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Experts indicate that if the order is enacted, it could create higher barriers for licensing agreements between Chinese drug companies and large U.S. pharmaceutical firms, increasing transaction costs and uncertainty [2][3]. - The proposed measures may also disrupt the supply chain and increase R&D costs for U.S. pharmaceutical companies, which rely on innovations developed in China [3][4]. Group 4: Global Context - China has emerged as a significant player in global pharmaceutical innovation, with projections indicating that 93 innovative drugs will be approved in China in 2024, marking a ten-year high [4]. - The country surpassed Japan and Europe in the number of innovative drug approvals, becoming the second-largest region for such approvals globally [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite potential uncertainties due to geopolitical risks, the trend of Chinese innovative drug companies expanding into international markets is expected to continue [5][6]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their global clinical data capabilities to adapt to changing policies and maintain the value of their innovative drugs [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite favorable data, gold prices are currently in a correction phase, with significant pressure from above [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and rising geopolitical risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose less than expected, reinforcing the market's anticipation of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [2] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with a 10% probability for a 50 basis point cut [2] - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are driving safe-haven investments into gold, further supporting its price [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a range-bound movement, with key support at 3620 and resistance at 3645 [3]