Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing volatility due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with a notable decline in the Copper Monthly Metal Index (MMI) by 4.23% from March to April, and analysts are struggling to navigate these changes [1] Trade Policy Uncertainty - Recent trade agreements between the US, China, and the UK have alleviated some concerns regarding tariffs, leading to renewed optimism about the global economy, although demand worries persist [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding international trade policies may negatively impact global economic prospects and copper demand, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) adjusting its growth rate forecasts downward [2] Supply and Demand Outlook - The ICSG does not foresee significant supply issues, predicting a surplus in the copper market for 2025 and 2026, contrary to previous concerns about potential shortages [1][2] - The anticipated surplus for 2025 is expected to more than double compared to earlier estimates, providing a buffer for the market as trade policies evolve [2] Price Trends and Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories have increased in May, failing to support copper prices, with rising inventories indicating stable demand conditions despite fluctuations [4] - The correlation between inventory levels and copper prices is weak, but the increase in COMEX inventories, alongside rising SHFE stocks, has dampened bullish expectations for copper prices [4] Currency Influence - The US dollar index has stabilized, which typically inversely correlates with copper prices, exerting pressure on copper prices as the dollar recovers from previous declines [5] - Speculation about potential US dollar depreciation has increased, although US officials clarified that exchange rate policy is not part of ongoing trade negotiations [5][6] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, which could further impact the dollar and subsequently influence copper prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, highlighting concerns over economic uncertainty and the impact of trade policies on market sentiment [1][5]. Group 1: G7 Meeting and Currency Policy - The G7 meeting focused on monetary policy, with a record high of 80% of investors believing the US is on an unsustainable debt path [3]. - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates that over half of the investors expect future crises to lead to deficit reduction, while 26% see quantitative easing as a potential solution [3]. - Analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the broad decline of the dollar reflects a loss of confidence in US policies, exacerbated by rising stagflation risks and implicit support for a weaker currency from the Trump administration [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook on the Dollar - Morgan Stanley has a bullish outlook on US assets, raising ratings for US stocks and bonds, but predicts a continued decline of the dollar due to diminishing economic growth premiums relative to other countries [4]. - The dollar index is forecasted to drop by 9% over the next 12 months, reaching 91 points, with significant weakness expected against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [4]. Group 3: Economic Concerns from Federal Reserve Officials - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials express growing concerns about economic uncertainty, with deteriorating business and consumer confidence attributed to US trade policies [6][7]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic supports only one rate cut in 2025, warning that inconsistent tariff policies could disrupt US trade logistics [7]. - Despite a temporary easing of trade tensions, Wall Street perceives ongoing risks of economic recession, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating [7].

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.56%, closing at 99.555, indicating a weakening of the dollar against major currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - The euro strengthened against the dollar, with the exchange rate rising to 1.1333 from 1.1273 [1] - The British pound also appreciated, increasing to 1.3428 from 1.3379 [1] - The Japanese yen saw a depreciation of the dollar, with the rate falling to 143.64 from 144.55 [1] - The Swiss franc also experienced a decline in the dollar's value, with the exchange rate dropping to 0.8251 from 0.8298 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a decrease in the dollar's value, with the exchange rate falling to 1.3841 from 1.3930 [1] - The Swedish krona also weakened against the dollar, with the rate decreasing to 9.5639 from 9.6540 [1]

Report Summary Core Views - In April, both sides of foreign exchange settlement and sales volume increased, with the scale of settlement and sales rising simultaneously, and the overall deficit slightly expanding. The significant growth of forward net settlement reflects the improvement of enterprises' settlement expectations and more proactive hedging behavior [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the Federal Reserve maintained a wait - and - see stance. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate increased [3]. Data Core Highlights Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Structure - In April 2025, the bank foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was $4.257 billion, slightly expanding from the previous value of - $1.967 billion. The scale of both settlement and sales increased, indicating higher activity in enterprises' foreign exchange transactions. The surplus of bank customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from $96 million to $589.3 million, while the deficit of banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from - $2.063 billion to - $10.15 billion [4]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose 0.34% month - on - month, and the market trading activity declined slightly, with the average spot inquiry trading volume falling to $42.234 billion [4]. Forward Transaction Structure - In April, the forward market continued to recover. The forward settlement signing amount increased by $4.358 billion month - on - month, and the forward sales signing amount decreased by $2.193 billion, driving the cumulative outstanding forward net settlement amount to expand from $903 million to $5.231 billion. The forward purchase performance amount increased by $7.519 billion, much higher than the increase in settlement performance [5]. - The forward settlement hedging ratio rose to 8.59%, the highest point this year, while the forward purchase hedging ratio dropped to 4.3% [5]. Securities Investment - In April, the foreign - related receipts and payments under securities investment changed from a surplus of $7.37 billion to a deficit of $12.493 billion. The trading volumes of both the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased, and the two - way difference narrowed. However, the bond custody volume of overseas investors in RMB bonds rose to 29,781.5 billion yuan [6]. Goods Trade - In April, the goods trade surplus narrowed, dragging down the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 52 in March to 50.8 in April, and China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, returning to the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI remained at 51.2, while Japan and the Eurozone were still in the contraction range [6]. Exchange Rate Views - The US inflation shows an initial slowdown trend, but the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance. The US core CPI in April fell to 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI also declined month - on - month. However, the Fed did not adjust its policy, and the US dollar index fell to around 100 [8]. - The easing of tariffs boosted expectations, and the exchange rate fluctuated more after the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor. In May, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.20. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the exchange rate was more driven by market supply and demand, and the short - term fluctuation range increased. The 1 - year USDCNY swap point dropped to - 2160, and the RMB exchange rate may show a two - way shock pattern in the short term [8].

Core Viewpoint - In April, despite extreme tariff pressures, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, while the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. The passive appreciation of the RMB under a weak dollar index should not be overly concerning [3][5][6]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - In April, the RMB exchange rate initially fell due to the impact of Trump's tariffs but rebounded quickly, with the onshore RMB rate at 7.2632 and offshore RMB rate at 7.2689 by the end of the month, reflecting a depreciation of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared to the previous month [5][6]. - The RMB nominal effective exchange rate index fell by 2.2% in April, which was greater than the 1.4% decline in the dollar index, indicating a broader weakening of the RMB against other currencies [6][7]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate weakened due to inflation differentials, which helps maintain the price competitiveness of Chinese exports [7]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital continued to show net inflows, with a historical high of $630 billion in goods trade surplus in April, despite pressures in securities investment [10][11]. - In April, foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $109 billion, indicating a strong interest in RMB-denominated assets, supported by effective government measures [11][12]. - The net outflow in securities investment was $125 billion, but this was less than the average monthly outflow of $284 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, suggesting limited pressure on cross-border capital outflows [11][12]. Group 3: Market Responses and Government Actions - The Chinese government implemented a series of financial support policies and counter-tariff measures, which helped stabilize market expectations and maintain foreign investment interest in RMB assets [12][10]. - The Central Huijin Investment Company announced plans to increase holdings in ETFs and quality stocks, reinforcing market confidence [12]. - The willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange transactions increased, with a surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements rising from $63 billion to $166 billion in April [16][17].

5月21日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价猛增，现已重返千元大关。六福黄金等金店金价大涨26元/克，报价1008元/克， 暂为最高价金店。上海中国黄金还是没变化，报价943元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差65元/克，价差一下子拉 大了。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以六福黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格大涨26元/克，铂金饰品上涨13元/ 克，报价422元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢迎在评论区留言告知，小金将及时收集整理并为您更新。 昨日现货黄金在白天有下跌走势，但在晚间出现大幅拉升，最高涨至3295.52美元/盎司，最终收报3289.76美元/盎司，涨幅 1.87%。今日金价继续上涨中，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3314.09美元/盎司，涨幅0.74%。 昨日金价回升主要是有消息称以色列准备袭击伊朗核设施市场避险情绪持续升温，外加美元指数仍在走跌，金价受推上 涨。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月21日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动 ...

新华财经北京5月21日电周二（5月20日），国际金价开盘3229.11美元，最高3295.72美元，最低3204.21 美元，收盘报3289.29美元。全天波幅91.51美元，上涨60.16美元，涨幅1.86%，日K线呈现长阳线形 态，突破震荡区间有望进一步延续上行。 基本面上来看，中东地区动荡局势及美元回落为金价上行提供动力。以色列国防军发布消息称，当天早 些时候，以军打死黎巴嫩南部真主党曼苏里基地的一名指挥官。英国外交大臣拉米表示，以方对加沙的 行动"不可容忍"，英国政府将宣布暂停与以色列的贸易协议谈判，就以色列扩大加沙军事行动召见了以 色列大使。美国表示，以色列可能正在准备对伊朗核设施发动打击。目前地缘局势紧张，如果确定发生 突发打击事件，或再次推动金价避险买盘。 此外，美国国债收益率持续攀升，30年期收益率接近5%，美元指数连续多个交易日整体震荡回落，从 102附近再次回撤至100整数位，也为金价强势反弹形成支撑。 短线走势来看，银价在受百日均线以及布林带下轨的双重支撑作用下，多次在32美元一线及下方获得支 撑并止跌回升，该位置仍是当前及未来一段时间的重要支撑区域，布林带中轨以及短期多条均线汇集于 3 ...

美元指数DXY日内跌超0.50%，现报99.53。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded after a decline. The market sentiment was bullish, but the copper price rally was expected to be unsmooth. The expected trading range for the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,400 - 78,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it was 9,400 - 9,650 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices recovered. The short - term price was expected to be range - bound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 20,000 - 20,280 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it was 2,450 - 2,510 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead index was expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price showed a strong - side oscillation [4]. - Zinc prices had a certain downward risk in the medium term as the zinc ingot social inventory increased [5]. - Tin supply was expected to loosen. If downstream demand remained weak, the tin price center might decline. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it was 30,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel prices followed a bearish trend. Attention should be paid to the change in LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium. The expected trading range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it was 15,000 - 16,300 dollars/ton [8]. - The lithium carbonate price was likely to oscillate at the bottom. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract was 60,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [10]. - For alumina, short - term waiting and seeing was recommended. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 was 2,800 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12]. - The stainless - steel market was expected to maintain a weak - side oscillation in the short term [14]. 3. Summary by Metal Types Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.4% at 9,554 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,140 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 16,000 tons to 46,000 tons [1]. - Price difference: The cash/3M premium was 3.2 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 390 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed up 1.85% at 2,481 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,185 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 6,000 lots to 516,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 tons to 61,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 458,000 tons [3]. - Price difference: The East China spot premium over futures was 70 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.11% at 16,852 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 27.5 dollars to 1,971.5 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,000 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased to 58,200 tons [4]. - Price difference: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22,249 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24.5 dollars to 2,668.5 dollars/ton [5]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 1,500 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,800 tons [5]. - Price difference: The Shanghai basis was 230 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - Market performance: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 264,760 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [6]. - Supply and demand: The mine supply was expected to loosen, and the downstream demand was weak [7]. Nickel - Market performance: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,540 yuan/ton, down 0.02%, and the LME main contract closed at 15,530 dollars/ton, up 0.19% [8]. - Raw materials: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [8]. - Inventory: The LME nickel inventory was 202,098 tons, an increase of 90 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index closed at 62,657 yuan, down 1.52%. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,860 yuan, down 0.52% [10]. - Supply and demand: There was a lack of strong drivers on the supply and demand side, and the price was expected to oscillate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.22% to 3,130 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot price: Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 54,000 tons to 190,300 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 1,2950 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14]. - Spot price: Spot prices in some markets decreased [14]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased by 12,582 tons to 143,780 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1,108,300 tons [14].

新华财经纽约5月20日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国信用评级遭到下调和贸易谈判可能涉及汇率对美元带 来打压，20日美元兑一揽子货币全面走低，美元指数在隔夜市场走低，当日早间一度有所上涨，随后持 续走低，尾盘时美元指数下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.31%，在汇市尾市收于100.119。 瑞银集团外汇策略师瓦西里·谢瑞布里亚科夫（Vassili Serebriakov）表示，穆迪日前下调美国主权信用评 级是此前美国国债收益率上涨和美元走低的刺激因素。现在，美国国债收益率已经从高点回落，但美元 仍旧在走低。 荷兰国际集团全球市场负责人克里斯·特纳（Chris Turner）表示，笼罩外汇市场的是贸易协议的讨论将 包括一些货币因素。如果确实如此，那将对美元构成利空。因为美国希望美元兑亚洲货币走弱，以缩小 亚洲对美国的贸易顺差。 日本财政大臣加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）20日表示，他与美国财长贝森特任何关于汇率的会谈都会基 于双方共同的观点，即过度汇率波动不可取。两人预计本周将在加拿大举行的G7国家财长会议期间见 面。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，美元兑日元汇率连续 ...