Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on its export control policies regarding rare earths, emphasizing the need to uphold international obligations and regional stability, while criticizing the U.S. for its threats and tariffs [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. Trade Representative, Tai, indicated that the imposition of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods depends on China's actions [1]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to U.S. threats of high tariffs and new restrictions, urging the U.S. to correct its approach and resolve issues through dialogue based on equality and mutual respect [1]. Group 2: Rare Earth Export Controls - The Chinese government has clarified its position on rare earth export controls, stating that these measures are in line with international practices and aimed at maintaining peace and stability [1]. - There were conflicting statements from Chinese officials regarding the new export restrictions, prompting inquiries from foreign journalists [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - **Market Outlook**: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) experienced a significant increase of over 5% in early trading, attributed to the presence of Apple CEO Tim Cook at the company's exhibition in Shanghai and a favorable report from Morgan Stanley regarding the company's exposure to tariffs [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock rose by 4.6%, reaching 273 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.343 billion HKD [1] - The presence of Tim Cook at the Pop Mart exhibition is seen as a positive endorsement for the company [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart is expected to be minimally affected by tariffs, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] - The report highlights that approximately 75% to 80% of toy imports to the U.S. come from China, suggesting that even with higher tariffs, Pop Mart's competitive advantage remains intact [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 5% in early trading, attributed to positive interactions with Apple CEO Tim Cook during his visit to Shanghai and favorable research reports from Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price increased by 4.6%, reaching 273 HKD, with a trading volume of 1.343 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Key Events - Tim Cook visited the THE MONSTERS 10th Anniversary Exhibition in Shanghai, marking his first stop in China [1] - During the exhibition, Pop Mart's founder Wang Ning and artist Long Jiasheng interacted closely with Cook, showcasing original LABUBU sketches and products [1] - Long Jiasheng demonstrated how to create LABUBU on an iPad Pro, while Wang Ning presented Cook with a gift of the LABUBU character ZIMOMO [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley released a research report indicating that Pop Mart is less affected by tariffs, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The report highlights that approximately 75% to 80% of toy imports to the U.S. come from China, suggesting that higher tariffs will not significantly alter Pop Mart's competitive advantage [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in September reached a six-month high, indicating strong resilience despite U.S. tariffs, supported by market diversification and manufacturing competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 7.4%, both exceeding expectations, resulting in a trade surplus of $90.5 billion [1]. - The export growth rate surpassed economists' median forecast of 6.6%, suggesting that China's record export momentum has not slowed down [1]. - Despite U.S. tariffs being 25 percentage points higher than the global average, China's manufacturing dominance continues to support its export flow [1]. Group 2: Market Diversification - Analysts noted that strong demand from non-U.S. markets means that Chinese companies are less affected by potential further tariff increases from the U.S. [1]. - The diversification of export markets has been significant this year, helping to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and contributing to steady GDP growth towards the annual target of around 5% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are concerns about the potential downward risks to the economy due to deteriorating U.S.-China relations, but analysts believe both sides may seek to ease tensions in the coming weeks [4]. - Data shows that in September, exports to the U.S. fell by 27%, while exports to the EU, Southeast Asia, and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6%, and 56.4%, respectively [4]. - The overall resilience and structural optimization of China's foreign trade have been highlighted, although challenges and uncertainties remain in the external environment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the impact of US-China trade negotiations on Pop Mart is expected to be low due to the current progress in negotiations [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - Approximately 75% to 80% of toy imports to the US come from China, and even if higher tariffs are imposed on these toys, it is unlikely to alter the company's relative advantage [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendation - The firm has set a target price of HKD 382 for the company and maintains an "Overweight" rating, designating it as a preferred stock in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's strategic position in the rare earth elements (REEs) sector and its implications for U.S.-China trade relations, particularly in light of recent export controls and tariffs [8][54][86]. Group 1: China's Export Control Measures - In October 2025, China announced stricter export controls on rare earth elements and processing technologies, particularly for military and semiconductor applications [4][11]. - The export license system implemented by China has a validity period of six months, impacting global supply chains and prompting industries to adapt [8][11]. - China's management of rare earth exports reflects the vulnerabilities in the U.S. industrial and defense supply chains, leading to adjustments in trade negotiations [12][54]. Group 2: U.S. Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - The U.S. relies on China for over 80% of its refined rare earths, which are critical for defense, electronics, and clean energy sectors [8][53]. - Experts estimate that establishing an independent U.S. supply chain for rare earths could take 5 to 15 years, highlighting the challenges in reducing dependency on China [10][54]. - The U.S. has initiated measures such as the Defense Production Act to boost domestic rare earth production, but these efforts face significant obstacles [55][61]. Group 3: Impact on Trade Relations - The role of rare earths has become a key factor in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both sides recognizing the importance of these resources [9][12]. - China's export management of rare earths has led to a shift in trade dynamics, with the U.S. showing a willingness to make concessions in negotiations [12][90]. - The recent trade tensions have prompted the U.S. to reconsider its approach to tariffs and trade policies, particularly concerning critical materials [93][95]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are essential for modern military systems, including advanced weaponry and communication technologies [42][45]. - The geopolitical significance of rare earths has increased, with China leveraging its dominance in this sector to influence international trade and security discussions [86][88]. - The ongoing tensions and management of rare earth resources underscore their role as strategic assets in global economic interactions [17][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. Factors such as the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations, weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the volume of imported soybeans will influence the market. The US soybean market is also in a state of oscillation, with the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and weather conditions being the main drivers of short - and medium - term trends [10][34]. - The soybean market will also remain range - bound. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [11][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate with a possibility of escalation, which is negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the harvest situation, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the volume of imported soybeans [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decline in pig - farming profits in China has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. Although the demand for soybean meal increased from August to September, the market will still oscillate due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, with a neutral or bearish outlook in the short - term [9]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to oscillate weakly, with a neutral or bearish outlook due to uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean weather [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to decline in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has fallen from a high level. The oil mill's开机 rate is expected to decline from a high level, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has declined, and market transactions are expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills remains at a medium - high level. As the upstream开机 rate declines from a high level, the inventory is expected to fall from a high level, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and it may return to an oscillating pattern in the short - term [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2900 (East China), with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: The soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short - term, influenced by US soybeans [10]. Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean market is also oscillating downward, and it will be affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the volume of imported soybeans in the short - term [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year, which is bearish [11]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: The soybean market will maintain a range - bound pattern, affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.8 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The September USDA report had little impact. The US soybean market is oscillating due to the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The bumper harvest of US soybeans is gradually being realized, suppressing the market outlook [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: The volume of imported soybeans in October is expected to decline from a high level. The soybean inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline from a high level. The oil mill's pressing volume has decreased, and the unexecuted contracts have continued to decline [37][38][42]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term. The pig - farming industry is in a state where the profit has declined, and the inventory of pigs is increasing slightly, while the inventory of sows is decreasing slightly [56]. 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market has bottomed out and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a technical rebound stage but with limited upward space, and it will return to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is maintaining a range - bound oscillation, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators show that the market is in a technical consolidation stage, and whether it will rebound or adjust downward remains to be seen [69].

Meanwhile, stocks have taken a sharp turn lower as the president did threaten this massive, he called it massive increase in tariffs on China. Joining us this morning, Jeff Moon, founder of China Moon Strategies, former assistant US trade rep for China Affairs. Jeff, it's good to have you back.Thanks for coming to the line. Thank you. Do you think this moment was inevitable.I think so. I I think uh we need to really step back. This is all part of the bargaining process.Both the US and China I think want to ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 2025/10/10 | 指标 | | 10月9日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == | | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 101 61 | 9 -11 | 1600 1200 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | 日照 | 11 | | 800 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | | -11 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 | 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -9 ...