交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15563，基差1403（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming high-level talks in Stockholm between U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Chinese officials aim to address tariff issues and seek reconciliation amid escalating international tensions [1][3] - The previous trade dialogues between the U.S. and China have been characterized by a stalemate, with the last two meetings held in Geneva and London, leading to increased complexity in negotiations [1][3] - U.S. Secretary Yellen plans to discuss not only tariffs but also the geopolitical implications of China's oil dealings with Iran and Russia, indicating a shift towards incorporating geopolitical factors into trade discussions [4] Group 2 - The U.S. has expressed urgency in seeking a meeting, highlighting a communication imbalance between the two nations, which has become a significant barrier to negotiations [3] - The Chinese government has maintained a firm stance on its cooperation with Russia and Iran, asserting that these decisions are independent and in accordance with international law, contrasting with the U.S.'s more aggressive approach [4] - The ongoing negotiations reflect not only economic interests but also a reevaluation of the U.S.-China relationship on the global stage, emphasizing the complexity of their interactions amid trade wars and technological competition [4]

他还进一步煽动称，中国必须因"资助"俄乌冲突受到"谴责"，并威胁称美方的二级关税将"打击"中国、印度、巴西等购买俄罗斯石油的国家，产生"重大"影 响。 惠特克接受采访福克斯商业频道节目截图 惠特克发表上述谬论之前，美国总统特朗普上周一（14日）在白宫椭圆形办公室会见北约秘书长吕特时，对俄乌战事持续表达不满。他当天放言，如果俄罗 斯没有在50天内同乌克兰达成和平协议，美国将对俄罗斯进行经济制裁，对俄罗斯石油买家实施所谓"二级关税"，税率为100%。 惠特克当时在白宫告诉美媒，此举针对的是印度和中国等国家，并表示美方预期这会对俄罗斯经济造成"巨大影响"。路透社21日援引乌克兰基辅经济学院 （KSE）下属KSE研究所的数据称，今年1月至5月，中国购买了近1/3的俄油，印度、土耳其分别约购买了1/4和1/10。 不过，美方目前尚未出台任何细则。彭博社22日指出，由于二级关税的实施在技术层面上被认为较为复杂，所以尽管特朗普此前也要对俄罗斯加大经济压 力，但一直未付诸实施。 【文/观察者网 邵昀】 外界期待中美展开第三轮贸易谈判之际，特朗普政府"横生枝节"搬出针对俄罗斯及其贸易伙伴的。 据央视新闻7月14日报道，美国总统 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, but some areas in Xinjiang are at high risk of heat damage due to high - temperature weather. - The previous continuous rise in cotton futures prices has digested the bullish factor of tight supply. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market is lackluster. Currently, it shows an adjustment trend. It is necessary to continuously monitor weather and macro factors. It is recommended to take profits and exit long positions opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the main contract of cotton yarn closed at 20,350 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 35,705 lots, down 306 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 447 lots, down 182 lots [2]. - The main - contract trading volume of cotton was 538,200 lots, down 15,967 lots; the main - contract trading volume of cotton yarn was 13,848 lots, down 1,269 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 9,382, down 54; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 96, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,728 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,438 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 23,955 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit from imported cotton was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 109 million meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 58.3566 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.24%, up 0.7% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.02%, down 0.55%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.59%, down 0.44% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 57%, compared with 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract rose 0.25%, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.04%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 0.2%. Due to the upward revision of the US cotton crop rating and the forecast of rainfall in production areas, the US cotton futures price was under pressure. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [2].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3420.59, with a slight decline of 0.25% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The highest price reached was $3438.54, while the lowest was $3420.49 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis shows that gold has broken through the $3400 resistance level, confirming a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern [3] Group 2 - The upcoming third round of US-China trade talks is scheduled for next week in Stockholm, aiming to postpone the tariff deadline of August 12 [2][3] - The Swedish Prime Minister confirmed the significance of these talks for both US-China relations and global trade and economy [3] - Current market conditions suggest that if gold can maintain above the $3451.53 level, it may target historical highs around $3500, especially in light of dovish comments from Powell [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to a stable economic outlook in mainland China and active market trading, despite limited corporate profit improvements [2] - The market remains active with a positive risk appetite, as funds rotate across different sectors [2] Macro Focus - Sweden will host a new round of US-China trade negotiations, with the aim of extending the tariff suspension period [4][7] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Japan, reducing tariffs to 15% and involving a $550 billion investment from Japan [7] - China's foreign exchange bureau reported a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in A-shares and funds in the first half of the year, indicating a stable growth outlook for foreign capital [8] Company News - Chow Tai Fook (1929) reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in retail value for the first fiscal quarter [4] - TCL Electronics (1070) expects a mid-term adjusted net profit increase of up to 65% year-on-year, driven by quality growth in core business and improved product and channel structure [9] - ASMPT (0522) reported a 32% decrease in mid-term profit, with a dividend of 0.26 HKD per share [9] - WuXi AppTec (2268) anticipates a mid-term net profit growth of over 50% [4] - The Fourth Paradigm (6682) has launched Phancy AI smart glasses, with shipments expected in early August [9] Industry Insights - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 2.4% year-on-year decline in shipments in Q2, influenced by early product launches due to subsidy policies [8] - The gaming industry in China continues to see regulatory stability, with 134 new game licenses issued in July, including notable titles like NetEase's "Diablo IV" [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of the third round of China-US trade negotiations scheduled for next week in Stockholm, Sweden [1] - The previous two rounds of talks were held in Geneva and London [1] - The latest round of negotiations aims to postpone the deadline for the suspension of tariff increases, which is set for August 12 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral, with various institutions' reports showing different production, consumption, and inventory data. The base - point indicates that the spot price has a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish. The market trend is affected by factors such as the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation's three - month relaxation period and the expiration of pre - export orders. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou Cotton's main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariff increases between China and the US and a 90 - day export order rush period. Bearish factors are the approaching end of the three - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC's July report shows a 2025/26 cotton production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a 2025/26 production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons. In June, textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in June were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 report shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Base - point**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, with a base - point of 1324 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The three - month relaxation period of Sino - US trade negotiations is about to end. Although some progress has been made in the negotiations, the final situation is uncertain. The front - running export orders have basically ended, increasing market concerns. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is significantly stronger than the 01 contract, and it may fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: USDA's July report shows global cotton production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. ICAC's data shows different production, consumption, and inventory figures for different years. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4][10][13][15]. - **Price - related Data**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,549, and the base - point is 1324 (for the 09 contract). The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton in 2025/26, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [4][15]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and its allies, particularly focusing on the backlash against the U.S. tariff policies and the implications for U.S.-China negotiations [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented a blanket tariff policy, imposing a 30% tariff on the EU and varying rates on Canada, Japan, and South Korea, which has not been well received by these traditional allies [1] - The EU has announced countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, while Japan and Canada are also prepared to retaliate, indicating a unified front against U.S. trade actions [1] Group 2: U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The U.S. unilaterally announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, which included zero tariffs on U.S. goods entering Vietnam, but imposed a minimum 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1] - Vietnam's negotiation team was reportedly caught off guard by the U.S. decision to increase the tariff rate from an expected 11% to nearly 20%, leading to a lack of cooperation from Vietnam [1] Group 3: U.S.-China Negotiations - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about U.S.-China negotiations, emphasizing the mutual economic benefits and the need for cooperation between the two countries [1] - The article highlights the complementary nature of the U.S. and Chinese economies, with the U.S. needing external support for supply and China seeking external markets for its industrial output [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil shows a bullish trend due to the digestion of inventory highs, a lack of new negative factors, and positive macro - sentiment. Soybean oil is relatively weak due to good weather for US soybeans and a high inventory build - up rate [4][5][7]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The fundamentals of US soybeans have improved, and domestic soybean meal is affected by positive market sentiment and the rebound of US soybean prices. The fundamentals of domestic soybean No.1 remain stable, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment [19][20][24]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to continue its rebound. The supply - demand pattern of corn remains tight, and factors such as the rebound of spot prices in North China, a slight reduction in imported corn supply, and accelerated warrant cancellation are expected to improve market sentiment [46][47][51]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase with a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Domestically, it shows an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [76][77][113]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton has rebounded due to improved market sentiment, while domestic cotton futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by concerns about tight old - crop inventories and strong market sentiment. Attention should be paid to downstream textile enterprises' operating conditions and policy trends [114][115][132]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is in a weak oscillation. In the off - season, the influence of large - scale farms on price adjustment is significant. With the arrival of the peak season, the release of social stocks will increase. Policy support such as state reserve purchases provides a price floor [135][136]. 3. Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25%, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18%. The price of palm oil was boosted by the digestion of inventory highs and positive macro - sentiment, while soybean oil was relatively weak due to good US soybean weather [4][10]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil is in a bullish pattern, but there is a risk of callback if inventory builds up in August - September. Soybean oil will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat sector and is expected to benefit from potential positive factors such as the shortage of soybean imports [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean prices rebounded, with the 11 - month contract rising 2.73%. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices also rose, with the soybean meal m2509 contract rising 2.69% and the soybean No.1 a2509 contract rising 2.15% [19][20]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The improvement of US soybean fundamentals and positive market sentiment will support the price of soybean meal, while the price of soybean No.1 is affected by market sentiment and technical factors [24]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, the price rebounded, with the C2509 contract closing at 2314 yuan/ton. The basis weakened [46][47]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose due to concerns about high - temperature weather. Wheat prices fell, and the auction of imported corn cooled down. Corn starch inventory increased slightly. The corn market is expected to continue its rebound [48][49][51]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price rose 1.39%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose 16 yuan/ton. The net long position of funds increased slightly [76][77][92]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market will be in a low - level consolidation phase. Domestically, it will maintain an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [78][113]. Cotton - **This Week's Review**: ICE cotton rebounded due to improved market sentiment, and domestic cotton futures rose significantly, with the 9 - 1 spread widening. The downstream yarn and grey fabric prices also followed the increase, and textile enterprises replenished raw materials [114][115]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: ICE cotton's upward momentum is limited by good growth conditions and weak consumption prospects. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if market sentiment cools down [119][132]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: In the spot market, hog prices were weak. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price was also weak, and the basis narrowed [135]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The state reserve purchase policy provides a price floor [136].