澳大利亚财长：澳洲联储已明确了通胀和利率的未来走向。 ...

利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 螺纹钢价格从 2015 年 12 月初开始回升，而利率则一直下降到 2016 年 1 月 13 日。PPI 在 2015 年 12 月份见底。因此 ...

以色列央行行长：预计明年将降息三次，将利率降至3.75%。 ...

金十数据7月7日讯，美国财长贝森特表示，美国将在不导致通胀的情况下实现经济增长。将在未来48小 时内宣布几项贸易相关消息。昨晚我收到了许多新的提议。许多人在谈判中改变了立场。在谈及关于财 政部和美联储的职位时，贝森特说，我将按照总统的意愿行事。而在利率方面，他表示，市场可能在将 特朗普对利率的观点计入价格。这不仅仅是美联储主席的问题，而是整个委员会的问题。（就美元走 势）货币涨跌是自然现象，并非异常波动。 美财长：未来48小时将公布几项贸易相关消息 ...

美国财长贝森特：市场可能在将特朗普对利率的观点计入价格。这不仅仅是美联储主席的问题，而是整 个委员会的问题。 ...

美国财长贝森特：（关于利率）市场可能正根据可能的降息预期对经济基本面进行定价。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares reached a new high in 2025, while U.S. stocks hit historical highs, indicating a synchronized upward trend[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 5.9% from April to July 2025, while the S&P 500 rose by 16.1% during the same period[12] - Historical instances of synchronized rises between Chinese and U.S. markets include periods from January to April 2019, March 2020 to February 2021, October 2022 to April 2023, and April 2025 to July 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Drivers - The stock market's rise is driven by three main factors: interest rates, risk appetite, and profit growth[3] - Monetary easing expectations have led to a decrease in interest rates, which supports stock market growth[3] - The U.S. dollar's depreciation is beneficial for liquidity and market expectations, impacting non-U.S. assets positively[3] Group 3: Historical Context - The synchronized rises often follow significant events that lead to improved market sentiment and valuation expectations[4] - The period from January to April 2019 saw a 24.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, driven by easing trade tensions and monetary policy shifts[12] - The period from March 2020 to February 2021 experienced a 46.4% increase in the S&P 500, supported by aggressive policy measures amid the pandemic[12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Trade uncertainty is expected to decrease, which may stabilize market volatility but could also introduce new fluctuations[6] - Short-term economic fundamentals in both countries are unlikely to drive stock market growth, with a focus on policy expectations instead[7] - The anticipated monetary easing in both the U.S. and China is expected to support market confidence until actual policy changes are implemented[7]

Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：必须在利率问题上保持完全的可选择性。 ...