Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August, according to a survey of 30 economists [1] - The median forecast indicates a further reduction to 3.35% by the end of 2025, up from a previous median prediction of 3.10% before the July meeting [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rate Forecast** - Economists unanimously predict a cash rate decrease to 3.60% in August [1] - The median forecast for the cash rate by the end of 2025 is now 3.35%, reflecting a downward adjustment from earlier predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) highlights the significant growth and optimization of the Swap Connect since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction volumes increasing from 50 billion RMB to 380 billion RMB by May 2025, representing a 660% growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Scale and Growth - The Swap Connect officially launched on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a transaction volume of 50 billion RMB in the first month [2]. - By April 2025, the total value of onshore fixed-income products held by international investors reached 4.4 trillion RMB, a 10% increase from the previous year [2]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction volume of 380 billion RMB in May 2025, far exceeding initial expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Optimization and Future Prospects - Since its inception, the Swap Connect has undergone continuous optimization, including the expansion of eligible collateral and the extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [4]. - The HKEX anticipates further product expansions, including the introduction of interest rate swap contracts referencing the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for offshore investors [4][5]. - The Swap Connect has become the preferred tool for offshore investors to hedge interest rate risks, with a notable shift from the NDIRS (offshore RMB interest rate swap) market to the Swap Connect market [6][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Demand - The increasing interest from international investors in RMB interest rate swaps has led to a demand for improved infrastructure and product offerings within the Swap Connect [8]. - Recommendations include expanding transaction limits and diversifying product types to meet the growing needs of offshore investors [8].

1. 利率决议：新西兰联储将基准利率维持在3.25%不变，符合市场预期，此前连续六次会议降息。委员 会讨论了本次会议的两种选项，一是降息25bp，二是维持利率不变。 2. 通胀预期：到2025年中期，CPI通胀年率可能会上升到货币政策委员会1%至3%的目标区间的顶部。 随着经济中闲置的生产能力和国内通胀压力的下降，整体通胀率预计将保持在区间内，到2026年初将恢 复到2%左右。 3. 利率预期：如果中期通胀压力继续如预期般缓解，预计将进一步降低官方现金利率。 金十整理：新西兰联储利率决议重点一览——维持利率不变 未来有望进一步降息 4. 经济前景：经济前景仍然高度不确定。全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。这可 能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的步伐，减轻通胀压力。 5. 市场反应：利率决议公布后，纽元兑美元NZD/USD短线波动近20点。 纽元/美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's bond yields continue to rise as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains its interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep the official cash rate steady, which has implications for the bond market [1] - Rising bond yields indicate market expectations of future interest rate hikes or inflation concerns [1] - The decision to maintain rates reflects the central bank's assessment of the current economic conditions and inflation targets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations and indicating potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease as anticipated [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Decision - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.25% [1] - This decision is consistent with a Reuters survey where 19 out of 27 analysts expected the central bank to hold rates steady [1] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Since August of the previous year, the Reserve Bank has reduced interest rates by 225 basis points [1] - Current inflation stands at 2.5%, with concerns regarding trade tensions potentially exacerbating price pressures [1] - The central bank is adopting a cautious approach in light of these economic factors [1]

国际白银周二（7月8日）日K收平，截至收盘，报36.74美元/盎司，上涨0.00%，日内最高上探36.86美 元/盎司，最低触及36.27美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至7月7日，白银ETF持有量为14935.15吨，较上一交易日 增持66.41吨。 白银etf最新持仓数据： 白银etf最新持仓数据（2025年7月9日） | 日期 | 净持仓量（吨） | 净持仓量（盎司） | 总价值(万美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-7-8 | 14935.15 | 480176269.30 | 17656567841 | | 2025-7-7 | 14868.74 | 478040946.50 | 17324916907 | （注：白银etf持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨白银的情绪升温，利多银价；白银etf持仓减少，表 明卖盘增加，市场看跌白银的情绪升温，利空银价。） 【要闻回顾】 美国总统特朗普周二在内阁会议上表示，若有关美联储主席鲍威尔美联储行总部翻新项目上误导国会的 指控属实，这位联储主席应当"立即辞职"。 特朗普重申对鲍威尔的批评，称其" ...

新西兰联储：委员会预计将进一步降低官方隔夜拆款利率，与5月的预测大致一致。 ...

新西兰官方现金利率 3.25%，预期 3.25%，前值 3.25%。 ...

智通财经7月9日电，新西兰联储将基准利率维持在3.25%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

新西兰联储：委员会讨论了本次会议的两种选项，一是将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至3%， 二是维持官方现金利率在3.25%不变。 ...