Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent macroeconomic indicators, including the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI of 2.4% for May, and anticipates significant central bank decisions this week, particularly from the U.S., Japan, and the UK [1] - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, while the previous value was revised from 2.3% [1] - The U.S. May PPI year-on-year remained at 2.6%, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 2.4% to 2.5% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were reported at 248,000, slightly above the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised to 248,000 [1] - China's May CPI year-on-year was reported at -0.1%, better than the expected -0.2%, while the previous value remained at -0.1% [1] - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth was reported at 7.9%, below the expected 8.1% and the previous value of 8% [1] - The Federal Reserve's quarterly financial accounts report indicated a decline in U.S. household assets for the first quarter of 2023, marking the first decrease since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and economic projections on June 19, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [1] - The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will also announce their rate decisions on June 19 [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak at a trust association meeting on June 20 [2]

目前，期货市场押注美联储本次"按兵不动"的概率高达99%。交易员关注的焦点将重点转向政策声明、美联储 主席鲍威尔新闻发布会以及利率点阵图，试图寻找未来降息路径的信号。 另外，日本央行的动作也备受市场关注。尽管市场普遍预计日本央行本周将维持利率不变，但市场焦点将转向 前瞻指引。如果日本央行官员更强调"谨慎"和"无需急于行动"，市场可能将下一次加息预期推迟到2026年第一 季度。 中东局势突变搅动市场 全球"超级央行周"即将来袭。 上周金融市场动荡不安，以色列空袭伊朗引发市场避险情绪升温，美股三大指数全线下挫，恐慌指数VIX飙 升。本周市场将迎来极为关键的美联储利率决议，同时日本、瑞士、英国等央行也将陆续召开货币政策会议。 上周，受中东紧张局势升级的影响，美股三大指数全线下挫，道指上周累计跌幅达1.32%，标普500指数累计 下跌0.39%，纳指累跌0.63%，均终结周线两连涨。 衡量市场波动性的芝加哥期权交易所（Cboe）恐慌指数VIX卷土重来，暴涨22%，重返长期均值20上方。 蒙特利尔银行金融集团（BMO）首席经济学家波特表示："中东紧张局势给本已紧张的全球经济前景突然注入 了又一个新的风险源。" 目前来看 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release macroeconomic data for May on June 16, with expectations of positive indicators in industrial output, consumption, and investment [2] - Predicted year-on-year growth rates include 5.85% for industrial added value, 4.85% for retail sales of consumer goods, and 3.96% for fixed asset investment [2] - The latest confidence index from First Financial indicates a value of 50.50, suggesting a return to above the neutral line, reflecting optimism in the economy [2] Group 2: Index Sample Adjustments - Shenzhen Stock Exchange indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index will undergo sample adjustments effective June 16 [3][4][5] - New additions to the Shenzhen Component Index include 20 stocks such as Zhongtung High-tech and Gansu Energy, while 20 stocks like Nanbo A and Tianmao Group will be removed [3] - The ChiNext Index will add 8 stocks including BlueFocus and Changying Precision, while removing 8 stocks such as Anke Bio and Steel Research High-tech [4] Group 3: Oil Price Adjustment - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take place on June 17 at 24:00, with a projected increase of 155 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel based on current crude oil prices averaging 66 USD per barrel [6] Group 4: Upcoming Events - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum is scheduled for June 18-19, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on financial openness and high-quality development amid global economic changes [7] Group 5: Stock Unlocking - From June 16 to June 20, 48 stocks in the A-share market will face unlocking, with a total market value exceeding 454 billion CNY, including over 100 billion CNY from Diya Shares [9][10] Group 6: New Stock Issuance - One new stock, Xintong Electronics, is set to be issued on June 20, with approximately 39 million shares expected to raise 541 million CNY [14]

Group 1 - The demand for USD put options is strong amid a weakening dollar, with prices for these options exceeding those for call options, particularly in the euro to USD risk reversal options, where the premium for USD puts reached a five-year high in May [1] - Two main factors supporting the dollar are the extreme divergence between the dollar and interest rates, and geopolitical tensions leading to rising oil prices, which may favor the dollar due to liquidity advantages [1] - The Swiss franc has seen the largest fluctuations against the dollar across all time frames, particularly a -1.12% change over one week, while the dollar index has remained relatively stable [2] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate rose from 1.3525 to 1.3598, reaching a high since June 5, driven by USD selling pressure, despite previous declines due to weak UK GDP data [5] - Analysts expect the UK economy to contract more than anticipated in Q2, with a 0.3% contraction in April, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts later this year [5] - The Japanese yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency has been bolstered by the Japanese government's cautious stance on trade negotiations with the US, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rate policy [6] Group 3 - The euro to USD exchange rate surpassed 1.1600, reaching a three-year high, with the options market prepared for this rise through risk reversal options and direct purchases of euro call options [7] - The European Central Bank's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, although there may be policy adjustments in upcoming meetings [8]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

提醒：北京时间20:15，欧洲央行公布利率决议。 ...

摘要北京时间周四(6月5日)亚欧时段，美元指数上涨，现报98.89，金价目前交投于3375.10美元/盎司， 涨幅0.07%，最高触及3383.91美元/盎司，最低触及3360.88美元/盎司。本交易日需关注欧洲央行利率决 议和美国初请失业金人数变动，市场预计欧洲央行将降息25个基点，中长线而言，偏向支撑金价。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)周三公布的非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至49.9，为2024年6月以来首次跌 破50的荣枯线，标志着占美国经济三分之二的服务业出现萎缩。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 3375.10 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 781.00 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 779.08 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 783.72 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 瑞士百达财富管理高级经济学家Nadia Gharbi在一份报告中表示，预计欧洲央行在本周四的会议上将不 会释放有关7月利率行动的明确信号，但风险偏向于释放暂停降息的信号。 德意志银行坚持认为，欧洲央行宽松周期的终端利率应保持在1.50%，但同时指出， ...

Key Points - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [1] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May will be announced, which is crucial for understanding the service sector's performance [1] - The unemployment rate for Switzerland in May will be adjusted and reported [1] - Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be released, indicating inflation trends [1] - Challenger's report on U.S. job cuts for May will be published, reflecting employment trends [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy [1] - The U.S. trade balance for April will be reported, providing insights into trade dynamics [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 will be released, indicating labor market conditions [1] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, likely discussing monetary policy and economic outlook [1] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published in the U.S., reflecting supply chain conditions [1] - EIA's natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 30 will be released, impacting energy markets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on economic outlook, providing insights into future monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss economic prospects, which may influence market expectations [1] - Federal Reserve's Schmidt will address banking policies, relevant for financial sector stability [1]

加拿大掉期市场预计7月降息的概率为46%，今年总共可能进一步降息36个基点，低于加拿大利率决议 公布前预期的42个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% [1] - The Bank of Canada may not provide much forward guidance, with an increased likelihood of a dovish tone due to potential economic damage from trade wars [2] - Attention is focused on the Bank of Canada's views regarding trade wars, the economy, and inflation [3] Group 2 - There is also a focus on the Bank of Canada's perspectives on geopolitical situations, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar exchange rate [4] - The interest rate decision will be announced at 21:45 Beijing time [5]