欢迎进入链接网页右侧下载本周财经数据与事件精美周历壁纸：今日有1310亿元7天期逆回购到期、 澳 洲联储利率决议、美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期。 相关链接 ...

Economic Events and Data Summary - Japan's May trade balance will be released at 07:50 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - France's May trade balance will be available at 14:45 [1] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be available at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's trade balance for May will be released at 07:50 [1] - Key Point 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - Key Point 3: RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 4: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 5: France's trade balance for May will be available at 14:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 04:30 [1]

Group 1 - The financial market is set to face a series of key events this week, including the approaching deadline for US tariffs, central bank interest rate decisions in Australia and New Zealand, and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the developments of these events to manage potential market volatility [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the US market returns from a holiday, with a focus on Eurozone data, specifically the July Sentix Investor Confidence Index and May retail sales data, which are expected to show moderate growth [2] - On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to announce an interest rate decision, likely raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.6%, amid a complex economic outlook [3] - On Wednesday, the US tariff deadline is highlighted, with attention on whether the US will reach a tariff agreement or extend the deadline, alongside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision, which is expected to maintain current rates [4][5] - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from June, where rates were held steady, and the market will look for insights that could influence expectations for potential rate cuts in September [7] - On Friday, the UK will release May GDP data, following a contraction in April, with market implications for the British pound and potential impacts from recent fiscal challenges [8]

Group A: ETF Holdings - In June, gold holdings changed 19 times, with 11 increases and 8 decreases [3] - The last significant increase in gold prices was influenced by risk aversion, which is expected to continue until a substantial reduction in holdings occurs [3][5] - Recent frequent reductions in holdings indicate that retail investors are cautious about breaking through current price levels, suggesting gold may fluctuate around 3300 [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The gold total ratio approached a critical 60% line in late June, with many institutions taking short positions [6] - The market saw a spike above the upper limit, indicating potential short squeezes, but the overall sentiment has returned to a balanced state [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's stance remains slightly softened, with market expectations leaning towards potential interest rate cuts in September if inflation eases and employment data weakens [8] - Predictions for upcoming FOMC meetings show a significant probability of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% until late July, with a gradual shift towards lower rates anticipated [8] Major Legislative Proposals - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is under negotiation, with implications for tax cuts, social security reductions, and increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [11][12] - The Senate has passed the bill, but the House's response remains uncertain, which could impact market sentiment [9] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The ADP employment data showed a significant drop, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, which may affect the upcoming non-farm payroll report [12][15] - Expectations for non-farm payrolls are set at 110,000, with variations in the actual data likely to influence gold and dollar valuations [15]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]

市场终于跌了…不过市场跌不多，现在的买盘还是很强！板块之间的变化会比大盘的变化更多一些，机会也一样更多些。 我们对于本次股市出现短暂下跌，是乐观且期待的，因为这样，短暂的机会才会出现。但是我们还在等待的趋势性机会，可能还是不会有。 在今天这次的展望里，我们会给出对于目前市场上的几个主流资产的观点看法。 大家好，我是老丁 看一下本周整体的大盘情况，本周上证指数下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌1.66%，恒生科技指数下跌2.03%，恒生指数下跌1.52%，纳斯达克上涨0.72%（截止 周五盘前）。 现在市场上最值得关注的就是，茅台为首的白酒下跌，寒武纪为首的芯片阴跌，泡泡玛特为首的新消费回调，还有地缘政治带来的原油上涨。（因为所属 不同市场，我们会在下文详细表述这些） 这也是在下周如果要看机会需要着重关注的地方。其实这种机会，都是点状的，目前市场上没有发现趋势性机会….由此，我们也只能在暂时捉不到大鱼 的时候，也看看小鱼，哪怕不参与，验证一下观点也好。 刚过去的这一周，美联储公布了利率决议，表示不降息。现在利率还是维持在高位…根据历史经验，当美联储过去有过大的货币政策，居民和企业都大幅 借贷，然后后续货币政策从宽松又 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak adjustment due to tight raw materials and weak demand. For nickel, it is expected to be adjusted at a low level, and for stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel. For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Nickel** - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.37% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 118,280 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fundamentally, the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore decreased. The high raw material price and the downward trend of nickel price led some non - integrated smelters to cut production. The demand of new energy vehicles increased, but the proportion was small. Recently, supply and demand were both weak, domestic inventory decreased, and overseas inventory remained stable. Technically, the short - selling power weakened, and it was expected to be adjusted at a low level [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Stainless Steel** - This week, stainless steel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 0.36% and an amplitude of 1.20%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,505 yuan/ton [7]. - The implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines planned to implement a nickel ore export ban. The cost support of raw materials weakened. Steel mills maintained normal production, but the supply pressure still existed. Entering the traditional off - season, the downstream was cautious. The domestic inventory removal was not good. Technically, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement** - This week, the futures prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel declined. As of June 20, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 925 yuan/nickel, a decrease of 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 118,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,640 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - **Basis Situation** - This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel was low, and the basis of stainless steel was high. As of June 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,625 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,345 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 945 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratio** - This week, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel fluctuated, and the ratio of tin to nickel increased. As of June 20, the price ratio of nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.46, a decrease of 0.1 from last week; the price ratio of tin to nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.2 yuan/ton, the same as last week [22]. - **Net Buying Volume of the Top 20** - This week, the net buying volume of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel increased, and that in stainless steel also increased. As of June 20, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 16,361 lots, a decrease of 7,310 lots from June 16, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was 653 lots, a decrease of 5,027 lots from June 16, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit** - The port inventory of nickel ore increased, and the production profit of electrowinning nickel shrank. As of June 20, the national nickel ore inventory in major ports was 739,240 tons, an increase of 2.41% from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was - 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton from last week [34][35]. - **Production and Import and Export of Electrolytic Nickel** - The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased, and the import and export volume increased significantly. In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory in Exchanges** - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained stable. As of June 20, the LME nickel inventory was 21,669 tons, a decrease of 1,473 tons from last week. The inventory of Shanghai nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,304 tons, a decrease of 1,651 tons from last week [41][45]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export** - The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased steadily, and the export volume rebounded. In May 2025, the total production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [49]. - **Inventory in Key Regions** - The destocking of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi was not good. As of June 20, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 329,227 tons, an increase of 322 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 596,595 tons, an increase of 8,635 tons from last week [53]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit** - As of June 20, the production profit of stainless steel was 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Related Industries' Demand** - The real estate industry recovered slowly, and the home appliance industry was at the end of the peak season. From January to May 2025, the new construction area of houses was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the completed area of houses was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [59]. - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry improved steadily. In May 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the production of small tractors was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [64].

2025 年 6 月 20 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 原油、燃料油、PTA 期货将偏强震 荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃期货将震荡整理 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3778 和 3794 点，支撑位 3751 和 3724 点；IH2509 阻力位 2623 和 2632 点，支撑位 2605 和 2590 点；IC2509 阻力位 5520 和 5572 点，支撑位 5455 和 5403 点；IM2509 阻力位 5816 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 国债期货周报 期债震荡走强，长短分化明显 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、6月18日，2025年陆家嘴论坛开幕式上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布八项重磅金融开放举措，包括 设立银行间市场交易报告库、同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易等。2、6月18日，中国证监会发布公告称，经商中 国人民银行、国家外汇局，将从2025年10月9日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内ETF期权交易，交易目的限于套期保值。 3.金融监管总局会同上海市人民政府联合印发《关于支持上海国际金融中心建设行动方案》。 基本面：1、国内:1）5月经济数据偏弱，工增小幅回落，社零超预期回升，固投规模持续收敛，失业率环比改善；2） 出口前置的拉动作用持续弱化，5月出口同比增长4.8%，较前值回落3.3个百分点；3）5月金融数据小幅超预期，财政持 续发力，政府债有力支撑社融，但企业信贷需求走弱，经济内生动能仍待提振。 海外： ...