Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices rose during the National Day holiday period, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.1% respectively [3][8] - Gold prices reached new highs, increasing by 4.0%, while oil prices fell significantly, with WTI and Brent crude down by 7.5% and 8.3% respectively [3][20] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7.0 basis points to 4.13%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.5% [12][14] Overseas Economic Data - The U.S. government shutdown has minimal impact on GDP, estimated at only 0.02% for a month-long closure, but may temporarily raise unemployment rates [4][25] - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [45][46] - The ISM services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity [50][51] Domestic Events and Data - During the National Day holiday, travel intensity decreased compared to the May Day holiday, with an average daily flow of 154 million people, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [5][55] - Cross-border travel and niche tourism remained popular, with significant increases in bookings for border tourism [6][72] - The new round of growth stabilization plans focuses on quality and efficiency rather than mere scale expansion, emphasizing the need for AI empowerment [6][54]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in October may be premature, with a suggestion from a key economic advisor to consider December instead [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Reactions - High-profile economic advisor Honda Yoshirou indicates that a 25 basis point hike in December is more feasible than in October, depending on the macroeconomic environment [1]. - Following the election of Sanna Takashi, the market's expectations for an October rate hike have significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 68% to below 20% [5]. - The Nikkei 225 index surged to record highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassed the critical 150 mark, reflecting market optimism about potential stimulus measures and a slower pace of rate hikes [2][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Currency Concerns - Honda warns that excessive weakness in the yen could lead to persistent inflation, suggesting that a USD/JPY rate above 150 is excessive [3]. - Despite the recent drop in rate hike expectations, Japan's inflation rate has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, and the economy has shown consistent growth [5]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Future Outlook - Takashi's victory was unexpected for some investors, and her stance on maintaining cautious monetary policy aligns with the principles of "Abenomics," which emphasizes flexible fiscal and monetary policies [2][5]. - There is speculation about revising the joint statement from 2013 that underpins the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary easing, with Takashi considering whether the current agreement is optimal [6][7]. - The relationship between Takashi and U.S. President Trump is anticipated to be positive, potentially influencing Japan's foreign policy and economic strategies [8].

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking through 48,000 points and gaining nearly 5% in a single day, resulting in an increase of almost 3,000 points over two days [1][3] - The primary catalyst for this market explosion was the election of former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan, whose economic policies are closely aligned with "Abenomics" and emphasize expansionary fiscal policies [3] - Analysts have reduced the probability of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December from 68% to 41% following Takaichi's election, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Major Japanese stocks saw substantial gains, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel both rising over 12%, and several other companies like Hitachi and Subaru also experiencing significant increases [5] - Mizuho's chief strategist warned that without a "safety net" accompanying the issuance of new Japanese government bonds, there could be selling pressure on bonds, aligning with predictions of a steeper yield curve for Japanese government bonds [6] - Investors are now focused on how Takaichi will balance her growth stimulus commitments with the long-term challenge of controlling government debt, as well as her potential influence on the future policy direction of the Bank of Japan [7] Group 3 - Notable stock movements included significant increases in companies like Toyota and Sony, reflecting the market's positive response to Takaichi's policies, with stock price increases ranging from 4.1% to 12.9% across various sectors [8] - Warren Buffett's investment in Japan has been highlighted, with his holdings in Japanese companies valued at $23.5 billion by the end of 2024, indicating strong foreign interest in the Japanese market [8][9]

Group 1: Gold Market - During the National Day holiday, gold prices surged significantly, with London spot gold prices breaking the $3960 per ounce mark and reaching a high of $3977.25 per ounce on October 7 [1] - New York futures gold prices also surpassed $4000 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical issues, which have heightened market risk aversion [12] - The price of gold jewelry has also risen, with many brands' gold jewelry prices exceeding 1000 yuan per gram [9][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - Overseas stock markets generally performed well during the holiday, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 4% on October 6 [3] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.61% on October 2, reaching a nearly four-year high of 27187.12 points, although it experienced a decline of 0.67% on October 6 [3][15] - The strong performance of the Japanese stock market is linked to the election of a new leader who is expected to continue expansionary fiscal policies [14] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 15.84% and the ChiNext Index up 51.2% year-to-date [19] - Investor confidence is high, with significant trading activity observed before the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for post-holiday performance [21] - Historical data suggests that sectors such as computer, communication, electronics, and banking have a high probability of rising in the week following the National Day holiday [22]

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 1,000 points, closing at 47,873, marking a historical high and a 4.6% increase, breaking the 47,000-point barrier for the first time [1][3] - Major stocks like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nippon Steel saw gains exceeding 12%, with the automotive and electronics sectors also experiencing significant upward movement [1][3] Currency and Bond Market - The Japanese yen weakened significantly against the US dollar, dropping 1.5% and approaching the critical level of 150 [3] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 14 basis points, indicating volatility in the bond market [3] Political Catalyst - The recent election of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is seen as a key driver behind the market movements, with expectations that she will become Japan's first female Prime Minister [3][5] - Takaichi's policies are aligned with "Abenomics," which includes measures to combat inflation and maintain loose monetary policy, influencing market expectations [3][5] Economic Policy Impact - Since the implementation of "Abenomics" in 2013, the Nikkei 225 index has increased by over 270%, outperforming other major stock indices [5] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy, characterized by negative short-term rates and zero long-term rates, has supported market confidence, with the central bank being the largest buyer of ETFs, holding about 6% of the total market capitalization [5][6] Foreign Investment - In 2023, foreign net inflows into the Japanese stock market reached approximately 6.3 trillion yen (about 434 billion USD), the highest since 2014 [6] - The favorable interest rate differential of 5.5% between Japan and the US has attracted foreign investments, enhancing returns through currency hedging [5][6] Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector, particularly electronics, automotive, and heavy industries, led the market rally, benefiting from the yen's depreciation which enhances export competitiveness [8] - Notable stock performances included Advantest rising nearly 10%, and companies like Fujitsu and Honda seeing gains over 5% [8] Governance and Market Structure - The Tokyo Stock Exchange's governance reforms, aimed at improving corporate valuations, have also contributed to the market's upward trajectory [8][10] - The government is reforming personal savings account plans to attract retail investors, enhancing the market's microstructure [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Takaichi's focus on economic security may benefit defense, critical resources, and technology stocks, while the nuclear sector could gain from her support for nuclear power initiatives [12] - The market is expected to remain volatile as Takaichi's government outlines specific stimulus policies, with potential for the Nikkei to reach 48,000 points in the short term [12]

日本央行本月加息可能性大幅降低。 高市早苗的谨慎立场 作为前首相安倍晋三的门生，高市早苗的政策立场深受"安倍经济学"的影响。 10月6日，高市早苗的核心经济顾问本田悦郎（Etsuro Honda）表示，10月加息"可能很困难"，建议12月加息时机更佳，届时加息25个基点不成 问题。 交易员对10月30日央行加息的押注大幅下降，从一周前的约68%降至周一的约25%。高市智敏希望日本央行在加息问题上保持谨慎态度，尽管她 尚未提及具体的加息时间表。 华尔街见闻此前提及，高市智敏在自民党总裁选举中获胜后，市场对央行政策预期发生重大转变。日经225指数周一创下历史新高，日元兑美元汇 率跌破150关键关口，反映投资者对更多刺激措施和更缓慢加息步伐的预期。 本田悦郎发出警告，认为日元过度贬值将推高通胀水平，并表示汇率突破150"有点过头"。受此言论影响，日元短暂反弹至149.90附近，但随后美 元兑日元继续走高，日内贬值1.91%。 经济数据与央行内部分歧 尽管市场预期转向，但支持加息的宏观经济背景依然存在。 日本的通胀率已经连续三年多保持在或高于日本央行2%的目标水平，同时，截至今年6月的第二季度，日本经济已实现连续五个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential return of "Abenomics" is being priced into the Japanese financial markets following the election of Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as the new leader of the ruling party [1][12]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4.7%, marking the largest single-day gain in months, while the Topix index rose by 3% [2]. - The Japanese yen weakened significantly against the US dollar by 1.9%, reaching the critical level of 150, and the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [4]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced volatility, with long-term interest rates rising due to concerns over future fiscal expansion, as the yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds surged by 15 basis points to 3.54% [7]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are actively engaging in the "Takaichi trade," anticipating that Takaichi's policies will lead to fiscal expansion and a rightward political shift, which may further weaken the yen and boost the stock market [10]. - Analysts predict that Takaichi's victory could lead to a weaker yen and a steeper yield curve for Japanese government bonds [10]. Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi's economic policy proposals are heavily influenced by "Abenomics," focusing on large-scale fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy [12]. - She has committed to addressing inflation through measures such as increasing subsidies to local governments and potentially lowering consumption tax [12]. - Takaichi advocates for close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan to achieve demand-driven economic growth [13]. Market Expectations - The market is preparing for potential fiscal expansion, with Takaichi's election seen as a surprise for investors who expected a more fiscally conservative candidate [15]. - A strategist from VanEck Australia noted that this could be a positive surprise for the stock market [16]. - However, there are concerns that increased fiscal spending may lead to a higher debt burden and potential bond market sell-offs if not managed with appropriate safeguards [19].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lead to her becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae's campaign reflected a pragmatic shift from her previous hardline positions, avoiding past statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes, which helped her gain more support within the LDP [2][3]. - The concept of "Responsible Expansionary Fiscal Policy" proposed by Kishi emphasizes strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, aiming for job and income growth, and a gradual reduction of government net debt-to-GDP ratio, contrasting with modern monetary theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - She has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low, despite previous proposals to raise the tax rate on financial income over 500,000 yen [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, aligning her economic judgments with the cautious stance of Bank Governor Ueda Kazuo, which may lead to a cooling of market expectations for imminent interest rate hikes [5]. - If economic recovery is clear and wage growth stabilizes inflation at 2%, Kishi's government would not oppose interest rate increases, indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [6]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology through tax incentives, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [6]. - Additional reforms aim to address rising prices, enhance energy security, and ensure food safety through agricultural structural reforms [6].

10月6日，日股大涨，日经225指数、日本东证指数均创历史收盘新高。日经225指数盘中一度站上48000点，截至收盘涨4.75%，报47944.76点；日本东证 指数涨3.1%，报3226.06点。 经济热点问答｜高市早苗将给日本经济带来什么影响 新华社北京10月5日电（记者宿亮）4日，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在执政党自民党的总裁选举中胜出，有望成为日本首位女性首相。 当前，日本经济面临财政和货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等多重困境。在上述背景下，高市早苗执政会给日本这一世 界第四大经济体带来什么样的影响？ 高市的财政扩张主张是否有风险？ 对于经济和财政领域的不少热门议题，高市早苗的立场与刚刚辞去首相职务的石破茂鲜明对立，两者主要分歧在于对前首相安倍晋三的"安倍经济学"的看 法。 高市的宽松货币主张是否影响加息？ 此次自民党总裁选举中，与其他四名竞选人主张逐步加息的立场不同，高市避谈明确的货币政策主张。而在去年的选举中她曾明确反对加息。 高市4日表示，日本政府和央行必须密切合作，确保经济实现由工资和企业利润上涨支撑的需求驱动型增长。她认为，当前日本通胀的主要原因是原材料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic policies of Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, who is expected to adopt a fiscal approach similar to Abenomics, emphasizing the need for active fiscal measures to address rising prices and inflation risks [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae identifies herself as a successor to Abenomics, advocating for active fiscal policies and monetary easing, while expressing caution regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2][6]. - She has proposed a "responsible active fiscal" approach, suggesting that issuing deficit bonds may be acceptable if necessary, which distinguishes her from other candidates [5][6]. - Kishi's fiscal target is based on "net debt balance," which is calculated by deducting financial assets from the total debt of the national and local governments, with a current ratio of 136% relative to GDP as of 2023 [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The Japanese government's debt-to-GDP ratio is reported to be as high as 240%, indicating significant room for increased fiscal spending under Kishi's proposed framework [6]. - Kishi has previously advocated for temporarily freezing the goal of achieving a primary balance surplus, prioritizing flexible fiscal spending in response to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. - The article highlights concerns regarding the potential for rising prices if demand is stimulated without fiscal reform, as Japan faces a new inflationary environment [8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Perspective - Kishi is viewed as a monetary policy "dove," emphasizing that both fiscal and monetary responsibilities lie with the government, and she has criticized the idea of raising interest rates at this time [7][8]. - She has previously stated that raising interest rates would be detrimental to personal consumption and corporate investment, expressing concerns about a return to long-term deflation [7]. - The rising interest rates in Japan, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.67%, are expected to increase the financial burden on households, particularly in terms of housing loans [8].