【光大证券科技研究】两光符合预期、存储超级周期、航天全面超预期-20260202 一、AI：两光符合预期 1.1、中际旭创2025年归母净利润98~118亿元，剔除股权激励前的净利润108-131亿元。 一、AI：两光符合预期 1.1、中际旭创2025年归母净利润98~118亿元，剔除股权激励前的净利润108-131亿元。 2025Q4约27~47亿元，中值约37亿元。 考虑2025Q4约~2亿元汇兑损失和研发费用等扰动客户，2025Q4中值39亿元符合预期，2025Q4上限49亿元超预 期。 1.2、新易盛2025年归母净利润94~99亿元，2025Q4约31~36亿元，符合预期。 1.3、Scale Up有望新增数百亿美元以上市场空间，Scale Up NPO/CPO将为光模块公司打开全新空间。 OCS、3.2T铌酸锂光模块等创新不断。 2025Q4约27~47亿元，中值约37亿元。 考虑2025Q4约~2亿元汇兑损失和研发费用等扰动客户，2025Q4中值39亿元符合预期，2025Q4上限49亿元超预 期。 【光大证券科技研究】两光符合预期、存储超级周期、航天全面超预期-20260202 #存储行业建议关 ...

美联储提名：特朗普提名前理事凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席，市场解读此举强化2026年降息预期。 地缘动态：围绕格陵兰岛的谈判据称进展顺利；美乌俄三边会谈、伊朗谈判架构均在推进中。 国内经济：卖方指出1月PMI放缓略超季节性，原材料价格上涨形成抑制。 相关ETF： 国债政金债ETF(场内：511580)、有色矿业ETF招商(场内：159690，场外：026477) 【卫星互联网】 SpaceX激进计划：向FCC申请部署最多100万颗卫星用于AI推理与数据中心，被解读为对近地轨道资源 的极限挤压。 商业进展：路透披露SpaceX财务状况，并称其可能与XAI商讨合并。 【宏观与政策】 应用热潮：腾讯"元宝"下载量剧增，并推出社交新玩法，重现红包盛况；人类无发言权的AI社交平台 Moltbook受关注。 巨头动态：黄仁勋透露英伟达将参与OpenAI下一轮融资，并看好台积电产能及存储需求；谷歌推出世 界模型原型Project Genie。 硬件与需求：网传谷歌新方案因HBM短缺探讨独立DRAM内存机柜；卖方强调2026年为CPO突破关键 年，LightCounting大幅上调远期出货预测。 基础设施：变压器工厂满产，订 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant decline, with London silver dropping by 27.63% and London gold falling by 10.18% [1][2] - The core reason for the drop in precious metals is the nomination of Kevin Warsh by former President Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, which is perceived as a hawkish move [3] - Warsh's proposed combination of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction has negatively impacted the precious metals market and also put pressure on U.S. stocks [3] Group 2 - The market's reaction to Warsh's nomination may not be as severe for the stock market, as there was no significant drop in U.S. stocks despite the decline in precious metals [6] - The A-share market is characterized as being particularly sensitive to both domestic and international issues, leading to a quick sell-off in response to external pressures [6] - Current market expectations are focused on sectors like AI, CPO, and concepts related to Elon Musk, with potential for new investment opportunities emerging [6][7]

《公告全知道》每周日至每周四推送明日股市重大公告！内容包含"停复牌、增减持、投资中标、收 购、业绩、解禁、高送转"等一系列个股利好利空公告，其中重要公告均以红色标注，帮助投资者提前 寻找到投资热点，防范各类黑天鹅事件，并且有充足的时间进行分辨和寻找合适的上市公司。 ①存储芯片+CPO+卫星互联网+机器人+PCB！这家公司800G光模块用PCB已稳定供货国内外一线光模块 厂商；②CPO+算力租赁+商业航天+机器人+PCB！这家公司在低轨卫星领域多年配合科研机构研发且实 现定量交付；③油服+数据中心+核电+锂电池！公司签署超亿美元燃气轮机发电机组销售合同。 前言 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and optimistic earnings forecasts of leading CPO companies in the A-share market, specifically Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, collectively referred to as "Yizhongtian" [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [6]. - Xinyi Sheng (300502.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected increase of 231.24% to 248.86% compared to the previous year [8]. - Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 1.881 billion to 2.150 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 40.00% to 60.00% year-on-year [10]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of January 30, 2023, the stock prices of the three leading CPO companies have seen significant increases over the past year, with Zhongji Xuchuang up 468%, Xinyi Sheng up 368%, and Tianfu Communication up 248% [2]. - The CPO sector experienced a collective surge on January 30, with stocks like Jieput and Zhishang Technology hitting a 20% limit up, and Tianfu Communication seeing a nearly 17% intraday increase [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Catalysts - The growth in the CPO sector is supported by the AI industry's development and increased investment in computing power infrastructure, which has led to a surge in demand for high-speed optical devices [4][12]. - A report from CignalAI predicts that the revenue for the optical module market driven by AI will exceed $18 billion by 2025, with related optical modules reaching nearly $6 billion [13].

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净度以号含就能质量人 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰优选领...F) | 1.7001 | 6.88% | 4 | | | 013279 | 2026-1-28 | | | | 2 | 浦银安盛数... A | 1.4112 | 6.79% | | | | 025421 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 3 | 浦银安盛数 ... C | 1.4096 | 6.78% | 7 | | | 025422 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 4 | 长城久祥混合A | 1.7830 | 5.78% | 13 | | | 001613 | 2026-1-30 | | | | 5 | 长城久祥混合C | 1.7508 | 5.78% | | | | 017462 | 2026-1-30 | | | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating increased bearish momentum [6] - A total of 2,449 stocks rose, while the decline-to-rise ratio was 59:61, reflecting a mixed market sentiment with localized recovery in profitability [7] - The main funds saw a net outflow of 4.868 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [8] Trading Volume and Sentiment - The total trading volume of the two markets was 0.84 trillion yuan, down 12.21%, showing a notable decrease in trading activity and a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors [9] - Institutional investors are primarily focusing on portfolio adjustments and structural optimization, moving away from defensive sectors to growth sectors like CPO, semiconductors, and agriculture [11] Investor Behavior - Retail investors are showing rational behavior, avoiding short-term volatility risks while selectively investing in quality stocks during sector rotations [11] - The sentiment among retail investors indicates a preference for strategic positioning rather than impulsive trading, with a notable portion of funds being allocated to high-potential sectors [11]

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced that the securities transaction stamp duty is expected to reach 203.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 57.8% [1] Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration will increase the proportion of fixed costs recovered through capacity pricing for coal-fired power plants to no less than 50% [2] Telecommunications Industry - According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the domestic smartphone shipment in December 2025 is projected to be 24.473 million units, a year-on-year decline of 29.1%. For the entire year of 2025, the total smartphone shipment is expected to be 307 million units, down 2.4% year-on-year [3] Financial Institutions - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 8.542 billion yuan and 10.535 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% [9] Market Data - The A-share market showed mixed results on January 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%. The total trading volume was approximately 283.55 billion yuan, a decrease of about 39.44 billion yuan from the previous trading day [10] Company Dynamics - Sino Medical announced an expected revenue of 519 million to 526 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13% to 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 43 million and 50 million yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 2767% to 3233% [13]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 财政部：2025年证券交易印花税增长57.8% 1月30日，财政部举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年财政收支情况。会上，财政部国库司副司长郑涌介绍，2025 年，证券交易印花税达到2035亿元，增长57.8%。 两部门：将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于50% 国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知。其中提出，完善煤电及天然气发电容 量电价机制。各地按照《关于建立煤电容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2023〕1501号）要求，将通过容量 电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于50%，可结合当地市场建设、煤电利用小时数等实际情况进一 步提高。省级价格主管部门可对天然气发电建立容量电价机制，容量电价按照回收天然气发电机组一定比例固 定成本的方式确定。 中国信通院：2025年12月国内市场手机出货量2447.3万部，同比下降29.1% 据中国信通院，2025年12月，国内市场手机出货量2447.3万部，同比下降29.1%，其中，5G手机2213.2万部， 同比下降27.3%，占同期手机出货量的90.4%。2025年1-12月，国内市场手机出货量3.07亿部 ...

【后市展望】 全球人工智能浪潮快速发展，后续催化密集，运力仍是核心关注。2月份之后，谷歌、英伟达等大 厂或相继披露财报，存在超预期可能。此外，光入柜内、CPO等叙事持续强烈，人工智能产业链或进一 步成长。有兴趣的朋友可以关注聚焦光模块、服务器、光纤等核心环节的通信ETF（515880），2025年 二级市场涨幅位于沪深两市ETF中第一名。 风险提示：涨幅比较范围为沪深上市的ETF，共计1381只（截至2025年12月31日）；提及个股仅用 于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表现，亦 不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提及基金 风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收益分配 原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 【市场表现】 每日经济新闻 受有色板块回调影响，今日大盘整体疲软，上证、深证指数回调。通信ETF（515880）逆势上涨， 盘中上涨近4%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【上涨因素】 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点 ...