Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley supports Nvidia, highlighting three growth drivers that will provide additional momentum, maintaining an overweight rating and a target price of $170, indicating approximately 20% growth potential, and listing it as a preferred stock in the semiconductor sector [1] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Nvidia is expected to benefit from accelerated AI data center investments in Europe, opportunities in quantum computing, and industrial/physical AI applications [1][3] - The company reported that its top four cloud customers plan to deploy 1.3 million Hopper chips in 2024 and 3.6 million Blackwell chips in 2025, indicating a significant increase in demand [1][2] - Morgan Stanley noted that the power capacity of 5GW corresponds to a demand for about 2 million Blackwell chips, slightly exceeding the orders from the four major U.S. cloud service providers [1] Group 2: European AI Investment - The EU launched a €200 billion AI investment plan earlier this year, which includes €20 billion for the construction of five AI super factories, each equipped with over 100,000 GPUs [3] - Nvidia's plans require "over 3000 exaflops of Nvidia Blackwell computing power," with GPU installations expected to triple from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Revenue from the European market is projected to increase eightfold or more from 2024 to 2026, with a growth rate exceeding 150% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Quantum Computing - CEO Jensen Huang indicated that quantum computing is reaching a critical turning point, with the potential to solve significant global issues in the coming years [4] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the commercial application timeline for GPU/QPU hybrid systems, despite a cautious outlook on the timeline beyond the NISQ era [4] Group 4: Industrial AI and Physical AI - The focus is shifting towards physical AI and industrial applications, with significant investments being made despite the long development timeline for humanoid robots [5][7] - The use of Omniverse for creating digital twins for manufacturing and warehousing planning is highlighted as a key area of investment [7] - Collaborations with various partners aim to establish the first industrial AI cloud in Europe, equipped with 10,000 Blackwell GPUs [6]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, resulting in over 2800 stocks declining in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets [1] - New consumption concepts surged, particularly in the IP economy and beauty care sectors, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The innovative drug sector remained active, with companies like Haishi Ke and Aosaikang reaching the daily limit up [1] - Gold stocks collectively strengthened, while the shipping sector faced adjustments, with Lianyungang dropping over 7% [1] - Today's trading volume reached 1.3 trillion [1] Hot Sectors IP Economy - The IP economy sector continued to rise, with stocks like Yuanlong Yatu and Hars hitting the daily limit up [4] - The catalyst for this surge includes the continuous historical highs of Pop Mart's stock and a 30% increase in the overnight performance of Chinese concept stock Quantum Song [4] - The Chinese trendy toy market is expected to reach a market size of 110.1 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2024 to 2026 [5] Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials sector remained active, with companies like Beikong Technology and Huayang New Materials achieving consecutive limit ups [6] - The Chinese government is reviewing export license applications for rare earth materials, having approved a certain number of compliant applications [6] - Market expectations of gradual relaxation of export controls are likely to push up prices of rare earth raw materials [7] Quantum Computing - The quantum computing sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Geer Software and Electronic City hitting the daily limit up [9] - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun stated that quantum computing is reaching a turning point and will be powerful enough to help solve complex global issues in the coming years [9] - The global quantum computing industry is projected to exceed $800 billion by 2035 [11]

Market Performance - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with mixed results among the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.26% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Movement - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated between a low of 3388.87 and a high of 3408.20, closing at 3402.66 [2] - There was a tug-of-war around the 3400-point mark, with both bullish and bearish forces actively engaging [3] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included beauty care, IP economy, controllable nuclear fusion, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while sectors such as port shipping, liquor, pork, and coal saw declines [1] - The insurance sector contributed significantly to the index's performance during the early trading session, with major insurance stocks showing positive gains [10][13] Investment Insights - The insurance sector was pivotal in supporting the index, particularly when it dipped below 3400 points, indicating a strategic effort to maintain the index's appearance [13] - The overall market sentiment improved when major stocks rallied, suggesting a correlation between the performance of heavyweight stocks and market mood [15] Sector Highlights - The top-performing sectors included precious metals (+3.26%), beauty care (+2.39%), and new metal materials (+2.37%), with year-to-date gains of 46.22%, 36.75%, and 31.67% respectively [17] - The quantum technology sector is gaining attention, with advancements reported by major companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [18] - The cultural media sector is also seeing increased interest, driven by the rising popularity of IP economy and related entertainment segments [20] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation rates, which has bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, positively impacting gold prices [21]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia plans to establish 20 new "AI factories" in Europe, aiming to increase AI computing power in the region by tenfold within two years, equipped with 10,000 GPUs [1][2][52]. Group 1: AI Factories and Infrastructure - Nvidia's AI factories will serve as "super factories" to accelerate manufacturing applications across various sectors, including design, engineering, simulation, and robotics [2][4]. - The transition from traditional data centers to AI factories signifies a shift towards producing "intelligent tokens," which will drive a new industrial revolution [7][50]. - Nvidia's new architecture, Blackwell, is designed to meet the growing demands of AI model inference, boasting an internal connection bandwidth of 130 terabytes per second, surpassing global internet peak traffic [9][38]. Group 2: Quantum Computing - Nvidia's CEO highlighted that quantum computing is at a critical turning point, with expectations for rapid advancements in robustness and performance [12][28]. - The integration of quantum computing capabilities with Nvidia's Grace Blackwell 200 chip will enable the acceleration of quantum algorithms, enhancing the potential for solving complex global issues [13][30]. Group 3: Collaboration and Ecosystem Development - Nvidia is forming deep partnerships with leading European manufacturers, including BMW, Maserati, and Mercedes-Benz, to transition to AI-driven operations and logistics [23][55]. - The establishment of AI technology centers in seven different countries aims to foster local ecosystem development and collaborative research [53]. - Nvidia's collaboration with various software leaders will facilitate the integration of AI applications into manufacturing processes, enhancing productivity and innovation [23][54]. Group 4: Future of AI and Robotics - The next wave of AI, termed Agentic AI, is expected to enable machines to understand tasks, reason, plan, and execute complex operations, with robotics as a physical manifestation of this evolution [18][33]. - Companies like BMW and Toyota are already utilizing Nvidia's Omniverse to create digital twins of their factories and products, showcasing the practical applications of this technology [20][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth potential in AI computing power, particularly in Europe, with NVIDIA planning to invest in 20 "AI factories" to increase AI computing capacity tenfold within two years [1] - The telecom ETF fund closely tracks the China Securities Telecom Theme Index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in telecom operations, value-added services, communication equipment, technology services, and data centers [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Telecom Theme Index account for 78.18% of the index, with major players including China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom [2] Group 2 - The demand for AI is driving strong performance in leading companies in sectors such as servers and connectors, with expectations for a recovery in the Ethernet switch market [2] - The domestic development of large AI models and their application is anticipated to accelerate, suggesting a positive outlook for sectors like servers, IDC, switches, and connectors [2] - The announcement by NVIDIA's CEO indicates a pivotal moment for quantum computing, which is expected to address significant global challenges in the coming years [1]

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："硅锂"有意，"钢矿"无情 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增 2.4%，核心 CPI 环比增 0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期。美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线 低于预期，能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电 受关税影响更直接的品类价格上涨。特朗普对伊朗核谈判"信心减弱"，美将减 少驻伊拉克使团规模，布油涨超 5%。特朗普表示，伊朗方面似乎在拖延。他强 调，无论协议是否达成，伊朗都不会拥有核武器。黄仁勋 GTC 大会表示，量子计 算正迎来拐点，计划在欧洲新建 20 家"人工智能工厂"。 重点品种：原油、股指、玻璃 玻璃：玻璃期货窄幅整理。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌。不过，整体 而言市场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻 璃生产企业库存 6011 万重箱，环比增加 222 万重箱。纯碱期货低位整理。数据 层面，上周纯碱生产企业库存 167.5 万吨，环比增加 0.6 万吨。综合而言，国内， 玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产 ...

Group 1 - The global IoT chip market is expected to reach approximately $494.89 billion by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by consumer electronics and building automation applications [4] - The development of smart transportation systems and the growth potential of connected vehicles are anticipated to boost the automotive and transportation application sectors for IoT chips [4] - The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the demand for IoT chips, particularly in non-contact temperature measurement, remote healthcare, and smart logistics, leading to increased diversification and specialization of IoT chips [3][4] Group 2 - The global cellular IoT chip market is highly concentrated, with the top 10 chip manufacturers holding over 98% market share, and six of these companies being Chinese, accounting for over 55% of the market [7] - Major players in the global IoT chip market include Intel, Qualcomm, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, and MediaTek, employing various growth strategies such as partnerships, acquisitions, and new product launches to enhance their market presence [9] - The future trend in the global IoT chip market indicates significant growth in dedicated MCU and SoC designs [11]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Strategies - The recent trade negotiations between the US and China on June 9 in London highlighted the US's passive stance, with former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns criticizing Trump's fundamental errors in handling US-China relations [1][4] - Trump's strategy of imposing tariffs as leverage against China has backfired, with tariffs on Chinese goods rising to 125% after multiple increases, failing to compel China to concede [1][3] Group 2: China's Response and Economic Impact - China has responded decisively to US tariffs, implementing countermeasures such as a 15% tariff on US coal and LNG, and an 84% retaliatory tariff, while also taking the US to the WTO with 37 other countries [3][4] - The US's tariff policies have adversely affected American consumers and businesses, with families losing up to $3,800 annually due to rising prices, and major manufacturers like General Motors and Ford adjusting profit expectations down by $5 billion [3][6] Group 3: International Relations and Alliances - Trump's indiscriminate tariff approach has alienated traditional allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, who are now seeking to strengthen ties with other nations, reducing reliance on the US market [4][6] - Canada and Mexico have expressed dissatisfaction with US tariffs, with Canada increasing exports to China by 21% in early 2025, and Mexico negotiating to delay tariffs while enhancing cooperation with China [6][7] Group 4: Misjudgments and Underestimations - The Trump administration underestimated China's resilience and strategic capacity to handle trade tensions, believing that increased tariffs would lead to economic collapse and concessions from China [6][7] - There is a significant misperception in the US regarding China's technological capabilities, with the belief that China only engages in technology theft, while in reality, China has made substantial investments and advancements in technology [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the acceleration of de-dollarization globally and the rise of China's technological strength, indicating a shift in investment focus towards markets outside the US, particularly in Germany and Hong Kong [4][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference, themed "In the Midst of Turmoil, Heroes Emerge," featured one main forum and twelve sub-forums covering key market topics such as asset allocation, AI and chips, financial innovation, and more, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The current global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a notable shift in capital flows from the US to other markets, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 20% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The trend of capital accumulation in the US since 2020 is reversing, with international investors increasingly focusing on other markets [4]. Group 3: China's Economic Outlook - China's economic growth momentum is solidifying, with foreign investment banks raising their growth forecasts for China and recommending an "overweight" position in the Chinese stock market [4]. - The proportion of new driving forces in China's economy has reached a significant scale, with high-tech industries accounting for 16.3% of industrial output [6]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - China is a key participant in the current technological revolution, with significant advancements in AI, quantum computing, and renewable energy, supported by increased R&D investment, projected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024 [5]. - China ranks 11th in the global innovation index, being the only middle-income economy in the top 30, reflecting its strong position in patent applications and authorizations in AI and renewable energy [5]. Group 5: Economic Transformation - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, with a focus on high-quality development and service sector expansion to absorb employment pressures during the economic transition [7]. - The service sector is identified as a critical area for job creation, with policies expected to enhance supply and stimulate demand in this sector [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The A-share market is poised for a potential bull market, with 2025 marking a peak for asset reallocation as deposit maturities increase [8]. - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" phase, characterized by gradual improvements in fundamentals and a higher return baseline for investments [8][9]. - By 2026, the supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve, leading to a more favorable market environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The quantum technology sector is experiencing significant stock price increases, driven by positive developments in quantum computing and strategic partnerships announced by industry leaders [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as Geer Software (603232) and Jida Zhengyuan (003029) have reached their daily price limits, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Shenzhou Information (000555), Keda Technology (300520), Xiongdi Technology (300546), and Xin'an Century, have also seen notable price increases [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that quantum computing is reaching a turning point during his speech at GTC Paris, suggesting a pivotal moment for the industry [1] - Nvidia plans to collaborate with various quantum computing companies globally, which may enhance innovation and investment in the sector [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable influx of dark pool capital into quantum technology stocks, indicating growing institutional interest and potential for further price appreciation [1]