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白银期货价格的基本格局,为什么中国出口管制很关键,2022年“妖镍风波”不能再出现了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-03 13:16
与世界上多种金属一样,银最终的精炼环节多半会在中国进行。白银原矿在拉美开采后,又在当地粗加 工,变成银精矿。中国大量进口银精矿,每年大约160-170万吨,然后用电解法等精细的办法进行精 炼。最终,中国提供了全球60%-70%的白银供应。 黄金其实并不短缺,工业上需求不多。价格机制会自动调控,人们可以不买高涨的黄金。而白银在AI 数据中心、光伏、新能源多种需求拉动下,已经短缺了五年,但有库存撑着才没有大涨。2025年的新情 况是,库存迅速减少。 2026年1月1日,中国正式实施白银出口管制。这在全球白银期货领域,相当于黑天鹅因素。据传,花旗 与美国银行积累了相当于白银年产量5.5倍的空单,高达44亿盎司,而全球一年只生产8.2亿盎司。这未 必是两家投行自己下的空单,应该是在那开户的客户。无论如何,巨量空单出现了。COMEX库存仅1.4 万吨,但纸白银合约规模是实物储备的350倍。 期货市场上,空单的意思是,以70美元之类的价格卖出一定数量的白银。然后在交割期之前,它可以下 一个多单平掉,也可以搜罗到白银现货,交出去完成合约。中国管制之后,西方精炼银供应将减少60- 70%,现货市场流动性枯竭会是显然的结果。伦 ...
吵翻了!金银铜暴跌9%是顶还是坑?两大硬核逻辑锁定上涨趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-03 08:36
在阅读文章前,辛苦您点下"关注",方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望,按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 金属价巨震藏陷阱? 先别急着割肉emo,听我唠唠——这波巨震顶多是"上涨路上的小插曲",相当于游戏闯关时遇到个小 boss,根本改不了最终通关的大趋势!核心原因就俩,听懂你就稳了。 第一个关键buff:全球央行都在"放水"送福利!你就想,美联储、中国央行、欧洲央行这三大巨头,相 当于全球经济的"总开关"。 美国已经连着三次降息了,特朗普还亲自把关新美联储主席人选,放话"不降息就别来",加上通胀压力 小了,2026年接着降息几乎是板上钉钉,高盛这些大投行都预测要降1-3次。 咱们央行也明确说了,2026年继续适度宽松,简单说就是"钱可能更值钱",欧洲央行早就降了八九次, 利率低到地板价,经济没起色肯定不敢随便加息。 文 |小戎 哈喽,大家好,小戎这篇国际评论,主要来分析黄金白银铜价高位巨震后,为何上涨趋势仍未改变,帮 大家理清市场脉络。 家人们谁懂啊!12月30号凌晨的贵金属市场,简直比过山车还刺激!黄金跌了4.5%,白银更狠,伦敦 现货直接跌9%,创下2021年以来最惨单日跌幅,这波操作把不少投资者整懵了:"这是 ...
2026年度策略:物少天成贵,势来价自高
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-01-03 07:50
Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold remains a strong investment, with central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings, and gold ETFs experiencing sustained inflows during the interest rate cut cycle, indicating a bullish trend for gold prices [1][20] - Silver is expected to see significant price increases, driven by financial demand rather than industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold [1][20] Industrial Metals - Copper is projected to experience a bullish market due to a clear supply-demand gap, supported by macroeconomic factors such as tariff reductions and increased capital expenditures, alongside strong demand from the energy and AI sectors [2][3] - Aluminum supply may face constraints due to high demand from data centers, with potential production risks and a tightening global supply-demand balance expected in 2026 [3] - Tin supply is limited due to global resource scarcity, while demand is expected to rise from the semiconductor and AI sectors, leading to a price increase [4] - Nickel prices are anticipated to recover as supply disruptions in Indonesia continue to impact the market [4] Energy Metals - Lithium demand is expected to surge, particularly from energy storage applications, with supply growth projected to slow down due to reduced capital expenditures by producers [7] - Cobalt prices are likely to rise due to export controls from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will create a supply gap that cannot be compensated by increases in Indonesian production [8] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited new supply expected before 2027 [9] - Antimony prices are projected to remain high due to rigid supply constraints and potential easing of export controls, which could enhance price elasticity [10] - The rare earth sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with prices likely to rise as demand from electric vehicles and robotics increases [11]
12月新能源重卡破3.4万辆抢疯了!徐工/三一/解放/陕汽/重汽超4000,谁斩销冠?| 头条
第一商用车网· 2026-01-03 05:14
Core Insights - The new energy heavy truck market achieved record sales of 34,500 units in December 2025, surpassing the previous record set in November by over 10,000 units, marking a 44% month-on-month increase and a 191% year-on-year increase [4][25]. Monthly Sales Performance - In December 2025, the total sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 34,500 units, creating a new monthly sales record. This figure represents a significant increase of approximately 10,500 units compared to November and is 2.91 times higher than December 2024 [4][5]. - The average monthly sales for new energy heavy trucks in 2025 exceeded 16,000 units, with sales consistently surpassing 10,000 units from March to December [5]. Regional Sales Distribution - In December 2025, 30 provincial-level administrative regions reported new sales of new energy heavy trucks, with 19 regions adding over 500 units. Notably, Shanghai alone contributed over 7,000 units [7][9]. Annual Sales Overview - The total sales of new energy heavy trucks for the entire year of 2025 reached 195,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 190%. The top seven companies, including XCMG and SANY, each sold over 30,000 units [17][18]. - The cumulative sales figures for the leading companies in 2025 were as follows: XCMG at 31,200 units, SANY at 30,100 units, and several others exceeding 20,000 units [18][19]. Company Performance - In December 2025, the top five companies in terms of sales all exceeded 4,000 units, with XCMG leading at 4,967 units, followed closely by SANY and Jiefang [12][15]. - Year-on-year growth rates for the top ten companies in December were impressive, with several companies achieving over 200% growth, including Shaanxi Automobile and Heavy Truck [15][21]. Market Share Analysis - For the year 2025, the market share of the top five companies was significant, with XCMG holding 15.93%, SANY at 15.41%, and Jiefang at 14.78%. The competition among these companies remained tight throughout the year [23]. Conclusion - The new energy heavy truck market in 2025 demonstrated robust growth, with December sales marking a new high. The trend of doubling or even tripling sales figures has become a norm for leading companies, indicating a strong market outlook for 2026 [25].
2022年以来第一次:伦敦铝价突破3000美元/吨!发生了什么?对我们普通人有何影响?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-03 04:48
王爷说财经讯:3年第一次突破每吨3000美元!铝也开始暴涨了! 同花顺金融数据库显示,2025年12月初,伦铝价格还在2800美元/吨左右徘徊,之后逐步震荡上行,12月31日收盘价已经达到2997美元/吨,距离3000美元 关口仅一步之遥。 进入2026年1月2日,市场买盘发力,直接推动伦铝触及3000美元/吨的关键点位,完成了四年后的再次突破。 更值得注意的是,当前全球铝库存处于历史低位,伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝库存已降至80万吨,创下5年新低,国内铝社会库存也从2025年12月的120万 吨降至110万吨,周度去化量达5万吨。库存持续走低,无疑为铝价上涨提供了"助推器"。 发生了什么?2026年1月2日,全球大宗商品市场传来重磅消息——伦敦铝价正式触及每吨3000美元,这是自2022年以来的首次突破! 可能有朋友觉得不就是一个金属价格上涨吗?但要知道,伦铝作为全球工业金属的"风向标"之一,其价格突破关键关口,背后往往牵动着全球产业链的神 经。这波上涨到底是短期炒作还是趋势反转?会影响我们身边的新能源汽车、光伏产品价格吗?对A股相关板块又会带来哪些冲击? 01、伦敦铝触及每吨3000美元,2022年以来首 ...
观察 | SpaceX万亿IPO要来了!国内5家“平替”扎堆冲刺
▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们! "地球是人类的摇篮,但人类不可能永远被束缚在摇篮里。"——齐奥尔科夫斯 史上最大IPO要来了——SpaceX可能要在今年上市,估值直奔1.5万亿美元,募资规模超过300亿。 看到这条推送的时候我的第一反应是: 终于来了。 其实圈内很多人前几年在二级市场买了SpaceX的老股份额,现在估值已经从4000亿美元翻到8000亿,这回终于等到兑现了。 但今天我不想讲投资机构怎么暴富的故事。我想跟你聊的是:这个万亿级IPO背后,藏着什么样的商业逻辑?对你我这样的普通人,到底意味着 什么机会? 拆解SpaceX:1.5万亿估值的底层逻辑 很多人第一反应是凭什么值这个价:一家火箭公司,值1.5万亿?特斯拉现在才1万亿出头啊! 这就是外行看热闹了。SpaceX现在可不只是个"放火箭的",它已经构建了一个完整的商业闭环: 说完美国,咱们看看中国。你可能不知道,就在最近,中国有5家"中国版SpaceX"集体冲刺IPO—— 蓝箭航天、天兵科技、星河动力、中科宇 航、星际荣耀 ,总估值加起来850多亿人民币。 扎堆上市的核心原因:国家星网计划启动 第一层赚钱逻辑:火箭发射服务的降维打击 猎鹰9号现在是全球发 ...
每周股票复盘:融捷股份(002192)拟设新能源子公司
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-02 19:33
截至2025年12月31日收盘,融捷股份(002192)报收于51.75元,较上周的55.46元下跌6.69%。本周, 融捷股份12月29日盘中最高价报55.8元。12月30日盘中最低价报49.99元。融捷股份当前最新总市值 134.37亿元,在能源金属板块市值排名12/13,在两市A股市值排名1447/5181。 公司拟在2026年度继续开展与锂盐产品相关的商品期货套期保值业务,仅限于广州期货交易所的碳酸锂 期货品种。保证金金额不超过8,000万元,任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超过50,000万元,资金来源 为自有资金,交易期限自董事会审议通过之日起一年内有效。该事项已由董事会审议通过,无需提交股 东大会审议。公司已制定内控制度并明确风险控制措施。 公司制定《子公司管理制度(2025年12月)》,规范对全资及控股子公司的治理结构、重大事项报告、 财务管理等内容。子公司需遵循公司战略规划,重大事项须报公司审批,定期报送经营及财务信息。公 司实施内部审计监督,明确董事、监事及高管职责,并建立考核激励机制。 公司发布《内部控制缺陷认定标准(2025年12月)》,明确内部控制缺陷分为设计缺陷和运行缺陷,按 严重程 ...
复旦教授疑问:美国的核心技术,为何让中国赚走全球超70%红利
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-02 11:41
复旦教授发出疑问:美国人的新能源技术,为何七成红利却进了中国口袋? 2025年,一组数据震惊了能源圈:全球风电和光伏发电总量,头一次超过了煤炭,而更让人瞠目的是,这场被称为"能源革命"的变革,竟是由中国主导推动 的。 美国发明了很多新能源技术,但赚得最多的,却是中国,这到底是怎么回事? 真正的较量,不在实验室,而在工厂里。 先说个大家可能没注意的细节,太阳能电池的初代原型,1954年美国贝尔实验室就搞出来了;锂电池的关键技术,早年也由美国企业率先突破。 按说这些都是"技术原产地",可现在市场上的主角早就换人了。 太阳能电池,全球八成产自我国;风力涡轮机,七成来自我国;锂电池的产能,也有七成掌握在我国企业手中。 什么意思?就是全世界新能源设备这摊大买卖,绝大多数是在中国工厂里制造出来的。 这不是"抢生意",而是把实验室里的技术变成人人用得起的产品,很多国家发明了东西,却做不出量、降不了本,最后也没法普及到市场。 技术要"活"起来,必须落地,必须量产,必须便宜好用,而这三点,正是我国制造业的强项。 中国制造的太阳能板不仅便宜,而且稳定,维修率低、寿命长,能适应各种气候。 风电设备也是一样,从零部件到整机,从高原到 ...
中美博弈新变局!美国收缩不是让步,而是换了种更狠的玩法
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-02 05:32
Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic adjustments made by the U.S. in response to the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, highlighting that the new national security strategy reflects an upgrade in U.S. strategy towards China rather than a reduction in tensions [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Strategic Adjustments - The U.S. is shifting from overt confrontation to a more covert and sustained competitive approach against China, indicating a strategic upgrade rather than a retreat [3] - The U.S. is focusing on consolidating its resources and reducing its global military footprint while urging allies to take on more defense responsibilities [3][5] - Internal challenges such as rising national debt, a shrinking middle class, and manufacturing hollowing out are driving the U.S. to concentrate its strategic efforts on China [5] Group 2: Ineffectiveness of Previous Strategies - The strategy of using military conflict to maintain dominance has failed, as China's comprehensive war readiness has deterred U.S. military action [7] - The U.S. alliance system is showing cracks, with European and Asian allies heavily reliant on China, undermining U.S. attempts to isolate China [9] - Attempts to provoke China through geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan, have not yielded the desired results, as China maintains strategic composure [11] Group 3: Focus Areas of Competition - In trade, the U.S. is pressuring allies to impose trade restrictions on China while attempting to limit China's trade influence through protective measures [12] - In technology, the U.S. is implementing chip export restrictions to constrain China's technological advancements, reminiscent of Cold War tactics [12] - Geopolitically, the U.S. is increasingly emphasizing Taiwan and encouraging regional tensions, while also fostering alliances to counter China's influence [14] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The competition between the U.S. and China is fundamentally about the control of global order and pricing power, with China's rise challenging the established U.S.-centric order [14] - China's strategy focuses on enhancing its industrial resilience, achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and maintaining strategic stability without being provoked into military escalation [14] - The future of U.S.-China relations is likely to be characterized by a "cold peace" with ongoing friction and competition, emphasizing technological advancement and internal governance resilience [14]
毅华新能源取得复合固态电解质及其制备方法专利
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-02 04:22
深圳毅华新能源有限公司,成立于2022年,位于深圳市,是一家以从事电气机械和器材制造业为主的企 业。企业注册资本625万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析,深圳毅华新能源有限公司共对外投资了1家企 业,专利信息27条,此外企业还拥有行政许可8个。 声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成,仅供参考,不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示,湖南毅华新能源有限公司、深圳毅华新能源有限公司取得一项名为"一种复 合固态电解质及其制备方法和应用"的专利,授权公告号CN120978176B,申请日期为2025年10月。 来源:市场资讯 天眼查资料显示,湖南毅华新能源有限公司,成立于2022年,位于长沙市,是一家以从事科技推广和应 用服务业为主的企业。企业注册资本300万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析,湖南毅华新能源有限公司 专利信息32条,此外企业还拥有行政许可1个。 ...