虽然市场对最新一轮关税威胁反应平淡，但投资者切不可掉以轻心。美银和摩根大通均发出警告，美国面临的滞胀风险正在上升，这可能比短期关税波动 更具威胁性。 美国政府此前宣布新一轮关税措施。据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣 布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。而根据之前信息，日本和韩国面临25%的关税税率，巴西则面临高达50% 的惩罚性关税。 据追风交易台信息，美银分析师在7月11日的报告中表示，如果这些威胁全面落实，美国有效关税税率将从目前的13.4%升至14.9%，而在"无协议"情景 下更可能达到18-20%的水平。 分析师警告，新关税措辞增加了滞胀的风险，即更高的通货膨胀和更低的经济活动，因为不确定性增加，且在关税提高和供应链中断共同导致的供应冲击 对通货膨胀预期影响的推动下，通胀预期上升。 在这种情况下，由于担心关税对通胀的滞后影响，美联储不太可能边际降息。企业为避免失去市场份额，会平稳地将成本转嫁到价格上。从时间上延 续"先升级再降级"的策略，而这只会增加美联储观望的可能。 下半年不确定性将持 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17085 | 10 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2017 | -20 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 94820 | -1037 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1632 | 407 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55130 | 2229 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55149 | 1846 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 249375 | -3000 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17040 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -210 | -60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -33.62 | -11.04 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WB ...

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 11, 2025. The video was published on July 13, 2025. The president spent this week ramping up his threats while extending the deadline by which the higher tariffs will start to be collected. ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas tariff disturbances have resurfaced, but the impact is controllable. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Primary and secondary lead smelters are resuming production, but the supply recovery is slow. Meanwhile, demand is entering the peak season, and some battery companies are stocking up as usual, with the enterprise operating rate continuously improving month - on - month. Short - term inventory increases suppress the enthusiasm of long - position funds. The expectation of improved demand and rigid cost support the lead price. The contradiction between long and short positions is limited, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and wait for the effective realization of the peak season [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From July 4th to July 11th, the SHFE lead price decreased from 17,295 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a drop of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price decreased from 2,057 dollars/ton to 2,017 dollars/ton, a drop of 40 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.41 to 8.47, an increase of 0.06. The SHFE inventory increased from 53,303 tons to 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 263,275 tons to 249,375 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons. The social inventory increased from 5.79 million tons to 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 195 yuan/ton to - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated within a narrow range, with the final closing price at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. The LME lead price fluctuated horizontally around 2,050 dollars/ton, with the final closing price at 2,017 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%. In the spot market, there were still differences in the shipment of electrolytic lead smelters. Some enterprises increased the discount for shipment, while others had firm quotes. The recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some raised prices for shipment. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices and preferred to purchase the ex - factory goods of electrolytic lead smelters, with part of the demand diverted to recycled lead, while the warehouse goods transactions remained sluggish. As of July 11th, the LME weekly inventory was 249,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,900 tons; the SHFE inventory was 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons compared with last week. As of July 10th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons compared with Monday and an increase of 0.32 million tons compared with last Thursday [5][6]. 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, both remaining unchanged. Near the shipping period of the US REDDOG lead mine, the previously undecided additional tariff negotiation will eventually end with both the buyer and the seller bearing half each, and the lead will enter the domestic market in late Q3 [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead ingot premiums, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, the price of waste batteries, the profit situation of recycled lead enterprises, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber futures is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. The interference of weather in the main producing areas supports the raw material price to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, and the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, driving the rubber market higher [8][83] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of the close on July 11, 2025, it closed at 14,360 yuan/ton, up 355 points or 2.53% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of July 11, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two slightly shrank. As of July 11, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 10 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton narrower than the previous week [24] - As of July 11, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [26] Important Market Information - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [28] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe in multiple rate cuts this year, while others are cautious due to tariff - induced inflation concerns [27][29][30] - China's June CPI rose year - on - year, and PPI declined month - on - month. The auto market showed signs of recovery in June [32][33][34] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of natural rubber in major producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [40] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [44][48] - As of May 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.92%, up 2.51% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.56%, up 0.81% from the previous week [54] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; monthly sales were 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74% [58][61] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [66] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [69] - As of May 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [74] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 188,690 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from the previous week [81] - As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons or 0.02%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45% [81] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons or 0.05%; the bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41% [82] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded. The terminal auto market showed signs of recovery in June, and consumption - boosting policies were continuously introduced. In May 2025, China's tire exports increased year - on - year [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory changed little [82] 后市展望 - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [83] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84]

Core Viewpoint - The statement by European Commission Vice President Šefčovič indicates that a 30% tariff effectively eliminates trade [1] Group 1 - The imposition of a 30% tariff is highlighted as a significant barrier to trade [1]

Central Bank Dynamics - The Trump administration is using the $700 million overspend on the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential reason to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term ends in May 2026 [1] - Federal Reserve officials show significant disagreement regarding interest rate cuts, primarily due to differing expectations on the inflation impact of tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.7 trillion, with bank reserves at $3.3 trillion, and discussions on further balance sheet reduction are ongoing [3] Global Central Bank Responses - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering maintaining flexible monetary policy in response to economic growth risks and potential deflation [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey prefers central banks to provide tokenized deposits [6] - The Bank of Japan has completely sold off its holdings in bank stocks, focusing attention on its larger ETF holdings, which could take over 200 years to liquidate at the current pace [6] Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. inflation indicators are showing signs of upward pressure, with companies beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [9] - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, with a net addition of 83,100 jobs, which may influence the Bank of Canada's upcoming monetary policy decisions [10] - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts, citing significant economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Group 1: Trade Tariffs - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU starting August [2] - Over 20 countries received new tariff notices from Trump, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, threatening Brazil with a 50% tariff [2] - Mexico's government views the new tariffs as "unfair treatment" and has initiated negotiations with the U.S. to protect border businesses and jobs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Risks - Deutsche Bank warned that Trump's potential forcing of Fed Chair Powell to resign is a significant and underestimated risk, which could lead to a sharp sell-off in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [4] - ING strategists noted that while Powell's early departure is unlikely, it would steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors price in lower rates and faster inflation [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $119,000, driven by optimism in the cryptocurrency market [6] - Upcoming congressional reviews of cryptocurrency-related laws are expected to enhance regulatory transparency for the industry [6] - Market sentiment is bullish, with a significant volume of call options indicating traders expect continued price increases [6] Group 4: Investment in AI - SpaceX plans to invest $2 billion in Elon Musk's AI company xAI as part of a $5 billion equity financing round [7] - This investment marks SpaceX's first foray into funding xAI, which has a combined market value of $113 billion after merging with Musk's social media platform [7] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. is set to release the June CPI report, with expectations of an increase in the annual rate from 2.4% to 2.7% [9] - Key financial reports, including PPI and the Fed's Beige Book, will also be published this week [9] - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, will kick off Q2 earnings reports [10]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特朗普贸易战引发的通胀究竟在哪？目前几乎没有证据显示其到来，但许多经济学家称，通胀很快就会 显现，或许最快就在本周。 作为美国两大通胀指标之一的消费者价格指数（CPI），预计将在6月录得自特朗普将关税提至数十年 最高水平以来的最大涨幅。 市场预测，6月整体消费者价格将环比上涨0.3%，剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率也将上涨0.3%。核心通 胀率更受美联储关注，因其能更好地预测未来通胀趋势。若预测准确，美国CPI同比增速将进一步偏离 美联储2%的目标，向3%逼近。 更重要的是，6月如此显著的物价上涨，将是美国加征关税推高通胀的首个真正信号——这也将让美联 储7月意外降息的可能性彻底落空。 美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）上月就曾对国会表示，"我们应该会在夏季看到这种影响（指通 胀），在6月和7月的数据中。" 为何与关税相关的通胀迟迟未现？经济学家给出了多个解释： 1、关税调整缓冲：白宫取消或降低了多项关税，缓解了部分潜在涨价压力。 2、企业提前囤货：企业在关税生效前囤积了大量关键进口商品，在库存耗尽前能维持价格 稳定。 3、部分领域通缩对冲：经 ...