降息利多美股 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，从历史走势看，美联储降息通常有利于改善市场流动性、提振风险偏好，并推动利 率中枢下移，利好美股。理论上，降息会通过降低企业借贷成本、增加市场流动性、刺激经济活动、提升资产估值、提振市场 信心这五大路径对美股产生影响。 自8月初以来，美国三大股指纷纷摆脱调整态势，不断刷新高点。本轮上涨与市场对美联储将在9月启动降息的预期高度吻合， 基本上可以认为是对降息的提前反应。截至9月10日，美联储观察工具显示，市场预计美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为93%， 降息50个基点的概率为7%。至于10月议息会议，累计降息25、50和75个基点的概率分别为21.4%、73.2%和5.4%。在降息几乎已 经成为定局的背景下，流动性环境趋于宽松，预计将为美股市场注入新一轮动力。 市场完全定价美联储9月降息 美国8月非农就业人数仅增加2.2万人，较7月修正后的7.9万大幅下降，远不及市场预期；失业率较上月上升0.1个百分点至 4.3%，创下近四年以来的新高。就业市场依然处于边际放缓状态，由原先的平稳状态转向疲软。就业数据降温可能迫使美联储 启动降息。回顾2024年9月，类似就业走弱的 ...

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Conditions - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest decline in nearly four years [1]. - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but remained cautious about further rate cuts this year due to growing concerns about inflation rebound [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July, with Japan's holdings hitting a more than one - year high, China's hitting a more than sixteen - year low, and Canada's holdings decreasing sharply by $57.1 billion [1]. 2. Key Investment Products Analysis Stock Index - US stock indexes rose, while the domestic stock index fluctuated. The trading volume on the previous trading day was 3.17 trillion yuan. On September 17, the margin trading balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 23.88522 trillion yuan [2][11]. - The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after a long - term rise. The strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Gold - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot shows that the Fed expects to cut rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and below 3.5% next year [3][19]. - US economic data shows a mixed picture. Retail sales in August were strong, but employment data was weak. The long - term drivers for gold are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur due to profit - taking [3][19]. Copper - Copper prices rose 0.1% at night. The supply of concentrates remains tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. 3. Daily News Highlights International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [5][6]. Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand the scope of unilateral visa - free countries, promote service exports, and implement tax - refund policies. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a consumption plan and issued over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. Industry News - The research paper on the DeepSeek - R1 inference model co - completed by the DeepSeek team and Liang Wenfeng was published on the cover of Nature, filling the gap of mainstream large - language models without independent review [8]. 4. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, it is in a high - level consolidation phase, with different index characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rising to 1.7825%. The central bank increased net investment, but the money market tightened. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The Fed's rate cut may boost oil demand but also raises concerns about the economy. Global oil inventories have increased for six consecutive months [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.98% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal inventories are at a high level, and the short - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Thursday. Supply has increased, and demand has improved seasonally. The short - term decline is expected to be limited, and the market may fluctuate [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The fundamentals are mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous decline, the market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the supply - side reduction effect [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the gold analysis, prices fell after the Fed's decision. Long - term drivers are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose slightly at night. Multiple factors are intertwined, and prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.09% at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has increased, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. Prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased slightly, while demand shows a mixed picture. The futures price may be volatile, and the price is supported by downstream procurement demand [22][23]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The inventory pressure and profit contraction of finished products restrict the market, while policy expectations provide support [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventories are decreasing rapidly. The market is expected to be bullish [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is mixed. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the overall view is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. The expected improvement in trade relations may put pressure on domestic prices [27]. - **Edible Oils**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed oil were strong at night, while palm oil prices fell slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have decreased, and the market may fluctuate [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply and inventory. Domestic sugar prices are supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but may be dragged down by import pressure [30]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices showed a mixed performance. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased during the National Day holiday, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak, with the 10 - contract falling 6.72%. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased significantly, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [32].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After a 25bp interest rate cut and the dot - plot indicating two more cuts this year, the dollar index first fell then rose. With the exhaustion of positive factors, non - ferrous metals declined, and copper and tin led the fall. Shanghai zinc closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 1.10%, with a 10 - 11 spread of - 10. The fundamentals changed little. Enterprises' point - price purchases led to a slight decline in inventory, but the sustainability of de - stocking is to be observed. Spot premiums rose due to increased point - price purchases during the price decline. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc markets continued, and there is an expectation of opening the refined zinc export window. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,000 - yuan level of Shanghai zinc [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc 2510, it opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,205 yuan/ton, a low of 21,950 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 6,337 to 71,757. For SHFE zinc 2511, it opened at 22,215 yuan/ton, closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan or 1.08%, and the position increased by 15,427 to 109,570. For SHFE zinc 2512, it opened at 22,230 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan or 1.03%, and the position increased by 2,794 to 33,436 [7]. - Inventory: Seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.21 million tons to 15.85 million tons [7]. - Spot Premium: Shanghai market quoted a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 10 - contract, Tianjin quoted a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market, and Guangdong quoted a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract, with the Shanghai - Guangdong spread narrowing [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,930 - 22,070 yuan/ton, and different brands had different premiums or discounts to the contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 21,930 - 22,050 yuan/ton, with different quotes to the 2510 contract and the Shanghai spot [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 21,970 - 22,090 yuan/ton, and different brands had different quotes to the 2510 contract and the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 21,830 - 22,030 yuan/ton, with a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread narrowed [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes charts on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][13]

【华泰证券：降息落地后金价短期或承压，长期配置价值不变】华泰证券表示，短期来看，由于美联储 降息利好已被充分定价，黄金可能面临"卖事实"的回调压力。本次降息属于预防式降息，参考2024年9 月降息后的情况，金价可能在降息之后一定时间形成"阶段性"顶部。 华泰证券认为，中长期黄金配置 价值不变。一方面，联储在上调、通胀粘性的背景下仍延续降息路径，叠加市场对2026年鲍威尔任期结 束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美滞胀的隐忧仍在。另一方面，在全球格局重塑的年代，去美元化趋 势、地缘政治风险以及投资组合多元化的需求，都在推动全球央行和投资者持续增配黄金。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve is impacting the economy through exchange rates, prices, and investment returns, challenging the independence of the Fed, which is a cornerstone of the modern financial system [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The detachment of the dollar from gold in 1971 led to the "stagflation" of the 1970s, with inflation peaking at 12.3%, resulting in soaring prices and unemployment [3]. - The painful experience of the 1970s highlighted the necessity of entrusting monetary policy to independent technocrats rather than short-sighted politicians [3]. Group 2: Current Dynamics - Trump's real estate background drives his instinctive pursuit of low interest rates and easy credit, conflicting with the Fed's mission to prevent a repeat of the 1970s economic nightmare [3]. - The Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, exemplified by a mere 25 basis point reduction, contrasts sharply with Trump's demand for aggressive rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Implications for the Economy - If Trump succeeds, a short-term asset bubble may lead to severe inflation, diluting the purchasing power of deposits and reshuffling societal wealth [4]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its stance, the economy may endure short-term pain but lay the groundwork for long-term health [4]. Group 4: Global Impact - Fluctuations in the dollar, as a global reserve currency, can trigger capital flow effects, with Fed rate cuts potentially leading to capital inflows into emerging markets, while rate hikes could cause capital withdrawals and financial crises in other countries [6]. - Chinese investors are advised to adapt to volatility, seek quality assets that can withstand inflation, and avoid poor liabilities like consumer loans [6]. - In the current complex global environment, the stable development of the Chinese market is seen as a primary choice for attracting capital, particularly focusing on quality assets in the technology sector [6].

Group 1 - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a collaboration agreement to jointly develop artificial intelligence infrastructure and personal computing products [1][2] - Intel's stock surged by 22.8%, marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987, following Nvidia's investment announcement [2] - The collaboration includes Intel customizing x86 CPUs for Nvidia in the data center sector and producing SoCs integrated with Nvidia's RTX GPUs for personal computing [2] Group 2 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 3.6%, with the S&P 500 Technology sector increasing by 1.36% and the Nasdaq Technology sector up by 0.94% [3] - Seven out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher, with consumer staples and discretionary sectors experiencing the largest declines [4] - The Russell 2000 Index reached a closing high of 2466 points, the first since November of the previous year, benefiting from a low interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, below market expectations of 240,000, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the focus on the weak job market and hinted at potential future rate cuts [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, while the 2-year yield increased by 2.5 basis points to 3.572%, with a yield spread of 53.4 basis points [4]

美国经济迷雾重重：就业数据疑云与降息抉择悬念 刚刚过去的这一年，美国劳工部的一份意外"账单"震动了整个华尔街：高达91.1万的就业人数被悄然上调，平均每月虚增近7.6万。这一数字的 披露，无疑为过去一年来我们对美国经济的认知蒙上了一层"注水"的阴影，真相远比账面数据来得复杂。 此刻，全球投资者的目光如探照灯般聚焦在华盛顿那座庄严肃穆的灰色建筑——美联储。今夜，这里即将上演2025年度最扣人心弦的金融大 戏：一次25个基点还是50个基点的降息，将不仅左右华尔街的瞬息万变，更深刻地牵动着每一个普通人的钱袋子。 最新的8月非农就业数据，仅录得2.2万人，远逊于市场普遍预期的7.5万人。更令人担忧的是，6月份的数据甚至出现了负增长，而失业率更是 攀升至4.3%，创下近四年来的新高。这一系列疲软的数字，共同勾勒出一幅美国经济正在步入"慢车道"的图景。 与此同时，美国国债利息支出已如滚雪球般突破万亿美元大关，占到了联邦总支出的惊人17%。这意味着，政府每收取100美元的税款，就有 17美元被"吞噬"于利息偿还，可用于基础设施建设、民生福利的资金愈发捉襟见肘。 特朗普的考量则更为现实和迫切。临近明年的中期选举，经济表现的疲 ...

现在看来，美联储的这次降息是为了让经济慢慢恢复元气。问题是，降息虽然能缓解短期压力，但长期来看是否有用呢？也许下一步他们 会加大力度，但如果经济本身的问题没有根本解决，恐怕降息也只能起到拖延作用。 你有没有发现，最近美国经济不太对劲？美联储就像是在玩"过山车一会儿加息，一会儿又降息。这不，9月18日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔 宣布了降息25个基点，这是今年的第二次降息。我们先不急着庆祝，降息到底是为了什么？ 鲍威尔这次可没拐弯抹角。他直言，美国的通胀依然很高，8月份的通胀率居然还是2.7%。但与此失业率却悄悄飙升到4.3%，创下近四年 来的最高点。就连工作机会都变得稀缺了。换句话说，经济不好，百姓的日子也不好过。 说实话，美联储的这种决策就像被逼上梁山。通胀没法完全压住，但如果经济再不好，恐怕连撑下去的底气都没有了。鲍威尔自己都说， 降息是"管理风险试图缓解这种经济疲软的困局。但换句话说，就是给经济打个"预防针不让它彻底崩溃。 我有个朋友在佛罗里达开卡车，他跟我吐槽过：现在油价越来越贵，车子也越来越难保养。上个月他才跑了两趟长途，收入直接掉了不止 一截。他很无奈，说连原本的生活也跟不上了。你可以想象，这种"卡住脖 ...

特朗普团队非常兴奋的表示，美联储将在18日凌晨两点降息25个基点，恐怕远在英国访问的特朗普也高兴得手舞足蹈。 不过呢，之前特朗普与鲍威尔大吵 了几次，甚至要换掉他，但是，特朗普没有如愿以偿，毕竟，特朗普说了不算。 特朗普曾经说过，美国要降300个基点才算得上合理，不过，此次如果降息 25个基点，与特朗普预期降了十倍，但我认为，特朗普应该很开心了，因为美联储能降息，已经是给特朗普面子了。 美联储不可能一次性降300个基点，温 水煮青蛙的方式是美国资本家最擅长玩的，如今实现了年内首降，也是特朗普上任来第一次降息，是个好的开端，特朗普略胜一筹，不过，特朗普没有把鲍 威尔赶下台，心头大患。 如果美联储再不降息，美国的银行入不敷出，将一个接一个的倒闭。 ...

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a significant decline last week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years, which contrasts with the previous week's unusual spike and aligns with lower layoff levels in the economy [1] - The total number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits remains above the critical threshold of 1.9 million, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market despite the recent decline in initial claims [1] Group 1 - Initial jobless claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, which is consistent with levels seen earlier this year and close to pre-pandemic trends [1] - The previous week's surge in initial claims was attributed to volatility around Labor Day and was particularly pronounced in Texas, where officials linked it to fraudulent attempts [1] - The overall decline in initial claims suggests that companies are still retaining employees despite an uncertain economic environment, although signs of labor market weakness persist [1] Group 2 - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims remained relatively stable at 240,000, indicating minimal change in the underlying trend [2] - The unadjusted initial jobless claims also fell by over 10,000 last week, with Texas accounting for about half of this decline, alongside significant decreases in Connecticut and Michigan [2] - The report challenges theories regarding a sudden surge in layoffs and diminishes calls for more aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2]