Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high while experiencing the largest net sell-off by clients in 10 weeks, primarily driven by institutional clients and hedge funds [1] - The sectors most affected by the sell-off were industrials and real estate, which have seen outflows for four consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - UBS lowered its 10-year U.S. Treasury yield forecast from 4.20% to 4.10% due to a weakening employment outlook, with a stop-loss level set at 4.40% [2] - The latest yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury was reported at 4.199%, having previously reached a two-month low of 4.191% [2] Group 3 - The term premium for bonds has increased globally, with a notable rise of over 40 basis points in Japan's 10-year government bonds since early last year [3] - In the U.S. bond market, the term premium has surged due to heightened concerns over fiscal policy and a lack of clarity in government economic policies [3] Group 4 - Eurozone inflation pressure is easing despite a slight increase in the inflation rate to 2.0% in June, attributed to slowing wage growth and a weak economy [4] - The inflation rate is expected to remain stable, with potential risks from oil price fluctuations and trade negotiations [4] Group 5 - German bank analysts predict that Eurozone inflation may decline again in the coming months, primarily driven by falling oil prices [5] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause its actions due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [5] Group 6 - The European Central Bank faces a delicate balance regarding future rate cuts, as inflation remains stable but core inflation is slightly elevated [6] - Predictions indicate that inflation may stay below 2% for most of the next two years, suggesting a victory in the anti-inflation battle [6] Group 7 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a macro environment characterized by "funding boom + asset scarcity," leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends [7] - Investors are advised to reduce positions in the short term while preparing for future opportunities, particularly in stable dividend-paying stocks [7] Group 8 - The internationalization of the Renminbi is deepening, with significant potential for growth in financial asset investments and official reserve assets [8] - Future strategies may include expanding bilateral currency swap agreements and exploring new payment methods through digital currencies [8] Group 9 - The telecommunications sector is expected to see improved performance driven by AI demand, particularly in North America, with significant growth anticipated for leading companies [9] - The domestic demand for computing power is also improving, benefiting local leaders in optical modules and switches [9] Group 10 - The Chinese government has introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which is expected to enhance the sector's growth [10] - The focus on innovation and internationalization is seen as a key strategy for the pharmaceutical industry moving forward [10] Group 11 - The soft drink industry is entering a peak season, with strong demand and resilience in sales despite pricing pressures [11] - Companies are expected to ramp up promotional activities and product launches as they approach the critical operating period [11] Group 12 - The pig farming industry is projected to maintain profitability in the second half of the year, with a slight increase in the number of pigs being marketed [12] - The average price of pigs is expected to range between 14-16 yuan per kilogram in the latter half of 2025 [12] Group 13 - The electronic sector is anticipated to continue its high growth trajectory, particularly in AI-related applications and domestic manufacturing advancements [13] - AI glasses are expected to reach a turning point in the second half of the year, driven by price reductions and increased demand [13] Group 14 - The media industry is poised for structural growth opportunities supported by policy, technological advancements, and product cycles [14] - Key areas of focus include the gaming sector, AI applications, and the rapid development of IP derivative markets [14] Group 15 - The solid-state battery industry is entering a phase of accelerated development, with applications expanding beyond automotive to include robotics and low-altitude vehicles [15] - The industry is expected to see significant advancements in performance and commercialization [15] Group 16 - The A-share market is still some distance from a bull market, with weak macroeconomic expectations and a lack of strong catalysts for structural improvement [16] - The market is characterized by a split in investor sentiment, with active trading but cautious long-term outlooks [16]

稳定币作为数字金融领域的新兴产物，近年来在全球范围内快速发展，其对主权货币体系、跨境支付与 金融稳定的影响日益凸显。 复旦大学金融研究院执行院长王永钦从货币体系演进的历史视角分析了稳定币的定位与局限。他认为， 稳定币的发展经历了从无抵押的比特币、算法稳定币到如今以主权货币为抵押的阶段，目前的形式本质 上类似于货币市场基金。王永钦指出，稳定币无法满足货币的三大特性（单一性、弹性、诚信），其快 速发展可能加剧美国国债短缺问题，进而影响全球金融稳定。他认为，美国经济实力的相对下降和中国 的崛起和亚洲经济地位的提升将进一步凸显安全资产短缺的挑战，中国应尽快推动国债成为全球性安全 资产，来缓解全球安全资产短缺问题，进一步提高人民币的国际地位和推动人民币国际化。 上海金融发展与金融与发展实验室首席专家曾刚从货币本位演进的角度解读稳定币。他回顾了从金本 位、布雷顿森林体系到信用本位的货币体系发展历程，指出信用本位下央行与商业银行的双层货币发行 体系虽赋予了货币供给弹性，但也带来了管理挑战。曾刚认为，稳定币作为数字货币的一种形式，对传 统货币体系既有挑战也有补充，未来货币体系可能呈现多元化发展态势。他特别提到，数字原住民对资 ...

Group 1 - The historical context of the "petrodollar" system established by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in the 1970s is paralleled with the current opportunity for China to create a "rare earth RMB" system due to its dominance in rare earth resources [1][3] - China's absolute advantage in rare earth production, accounting for 68.6% of the global market in 2023, positions it as a critical player in modern industrial supply chains, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI [4][5] - The urgency of the West's "de-China" efforts is highlighted by the challenges faced in establishing alternative supply chains, with U.S. and other countries lagging significantly behind China in rare earth production capabilities [5][6] Group 2 - The concept of a "rare earth dedicated RMB stablecoin" is proposed, which would require all rare earth transactions to be settled in this currency, creating a substantial demand for RMB in the global market [6][7] - The integration of smart contracts with "payment upon delivery" clauses is suggested to enhance transaction efficiency and reinforce China's dominance in the supply chain [7] - Recent actions by global automotive manufacturers to secure rare earth supplies underscore the critical nature of China's resources, providing a strong foundation for the promotion of the rare earth RMB stablecoin [7]

信雅达 20250701 摘要 希尔达公司致力于将稳定币技术与业务场景结合，促进人民币国际化和 跨境交易，并积极参与全球支付新规则的制定，服务于发行方、托管行、 交易平台及场景用户。 通过推出与人民币或港元挂钩的稳定币，希尔达旨在维护国家货币主权， 防止美元等外币侵蚀市场份额，并创新支付系统，提升中国在全球金融 市场的话语权。 希尔达凭借丰富的金融 IT 经验、对跨境支付领军企业 Pingpong 的投资 以及在国际清算系统中的份额，具备全面服务能力和良好的政策环境， 有望在新兴市场中快速占领份额。 希尔达计划深化区块链技术研发与应用，拓展业务合作伙伴关系，扩大 市场覆盖面，尤其关注跨境支付及结算场景，以巩固其在稳定币领域的 领先地位。 希尔达通过香港子公司拓展海外业务，包括支付结算和跨境人民币清算， 并与中国人民银行深度合作，提供创新性的沙箱服务模式，积累了丰富 的国际业务经验。 Q&A 希尔达公司对稳定币的理解和布局是怎样的？ 希尔达公司认为，稳定币在当前环境下成为热点话题，是因为它作为主权货币 的自然延伸，可以维护货币主权。虚拟货币如比特币由于去中心化特性，会侵 犯国家货币主权，因此中国政府一直禁止其相 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，中信证券研报称，近年来，人民币国际化进程持续深化，支付、投资、融资和储备 功能均稳步提升，但与主流国际货币仍有差距。其中，人民币在金融资产投资、全球各国官方储备资产 等领域的提升空间较大。展望未来，扩大双边本币互换协议规模、充分挖掘"一带一路"共建国家和 RCEP成员国等跨境支付需求、保持谨慎开放态度探索数字货币和稳定币跨境支付等新方式和新技术应 用或是人民币国际化的发力重点。 中信证券：人民币在金融资产投资、各国官方储备资产等领域的提升空间较大 ...

Core Insights - The sudden rise in interest for stablecoins in June 2023 is attributed to regulatory signals from the People's Bank of China and the International Monetary Fund, indicating a shift towards a more positive stance on stablecoin exploration [1][4][5] - The U.S. has made significant strides in legalizing stablecoins, which may further enhance the global dominance of the U.S. dollar and reduce over-reliance on it by other economies [5][6] - Hong Kong is emerging as a key player in the stablecoin landscape, having established a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is set to take effect on August 1, 2023 [7][12] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China has expressed the need for a diversified global currency system, suggesting that digital yuan and stablecoins could play a role in cross-border settlements [3][4] - The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS" Act, which mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold 100% reserves in U.S. dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, thereby legitimizing dollar-pegged stablecoins [5][6] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" will classify stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar as "payment instruments," subjecting them to a licensing regime similar to the U.S. regulations [7][12] Market Dynamics - Stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, dominate the market, holding over 90% of the market share, and are primarily pegged to the U.S. dollar [2] - The use of stablecoins is expected to lower cross-border payment costs significantly by simplifying the transaction process and eliminating intermediaries [9] - The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is gaining traction, with stablecoins being positioned as a key medium for transactions in this emerging market [10][11] Industry Participation - Major players like Ant Group and JD.com are actively pursuing stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, indicating a strong interest from established companies in the stablecoin space [13] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is set to announce the first batch of stablecoin licenses, with several financial institutions already engaged in stablecoin projects [12][13] - Global banks such as Standard Chartered, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank are also exploring stablecoin initiatives, highlighting the growing interest from traditional financial institutions [14]

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币国际化进程加快的可能性，并对 由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球 认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 人民币适度升值将一定程度上降低对于年度 GDP 增速的下限要求，避免过多通过投资"快变量"拉动经济增长，有助于经济结构 转型。 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备货币等方面的国际占比远低于 经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和 CIPS 的使用规模明显增加， SWIFT 对人民币支付的统计不完全，实际人民 币支付结算比例估计在 8% 左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过 7 成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国 2005 年汇改后，人民币对美 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 香港的金融基因可以追溯到19世纪中叶，外资银行的进入是香港金融业务发展的雏形。1997年回归祖国 后，香港作为国际金融中心的地位得到空前发展。值此7月1日香港回归纪念日，淡水泉梳理香港金融市 场在发展演变过程中的一些事实，并分享我们对当前港股的观察。 19世纪香港开埠 01 数字解码香港金融实力 香港依托开放市场、背靠内地等独特优势，构建起完善的金融生态体系。最新一期《全球金融中心指 数》排名中，香港是全球第三和亚太第一的金融中心，仅次于纽约和伦敦，领先新加坡。 以资本市场为例，截至2025年5月，今年港股市值达40.9万亿港元，居全球前列；IPO融资规模超过600 亿港元，居全球第一。此前2014-2024的11年间，港股IPO累计募资规模同样位居世界首位。 资产管理方面，香港的资产及财富管理业务超过30万亿港元，私募基金管理规模超过2300亿美元，位列 亚洲第二（仅次于内地）。香港也是亚洲最大的对冲基金中心和跨境财富管理中心，市场估算香港有超 过2700家家族办 ...

与传统跨境汇款路径相比，跨境支付通大幅压缩了汇款链路和 中介成本，降低了交易手续费，减少了处理时间，显著提升了 汇款效率和用户体验。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 场景实践 当数字人民币持续推进场景应用时，上海地铁悄然完成了一次具有象征意义的升级。自6月28日 起，乘客可在上海轨道交通全线网使用数字人民币硬钱包以及银联、维萨（Visa）、万事达 （Mastercard）、美国运通（American express）等银行卡，刷卡进站。 当房女士掏出手机，仅用数秒便将1万元人民币从深圳实时汇至在香港求学的女儿账户时，她或许 没有意识到，自己已站在一间支付网络重构的"前沿实验室"里。 "过去要换港币，还得等半天。"房女士回忆起昔日跨境汇款的烦琐。2025年6月22日，"跨境支付 通"正式上线当天，她只需手机号和姓名，就能通过招商银行App（移动应用程序）向香港快速支 付系统"转数快"（FPS）账户实时汇款人民币。作为首批用户之一，她的体验，正是深港数字支付 互联落地的真实写照。 这项尚未直接嵌入数字人民币钱包的服务，其清算逻辑与技术接口，已被视作数字人民币（e- CNY）未来国际化落地的"前置跑道"。 同 一 ...

Group 1: Cross-Border Payment Innovations - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" allows real-time RMB transfers from Shenzhen to Hong Kong, significantly improving the efficiency of cross-border remittances [2][6] - As of June 26, 2025, the "Cross-Border Payment Link" has facilitated 2,506 transactions in Fujian Province, amounting to 8.34 million RMB, demonstrating its practical utility for residents [6] - The service simplifies the remittance process, requiring only a phone number and name, thus eliminating traditional complexities such as currency exchange and waiting times [6][7] Group 2: Hong Kong's Digital Asset Development - The Hong Kong government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," marking a shift towards a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets [3] - The declaration emphasizes the integration of blockchain technology to enhance financial transactions, aiming to create a more inclusive financial ecosystem [3] - Hong Kong's regulatory advantages position it as a leader in transitioning traditional finance into the digital asset era, fostering a sustainable digital asset ecosystem [3] Group 3: Digital Currency Features and Infrastructure - Digital RMB is characterized by features such as programmability, controllable anonymity, and integration with traditional banking systems, which are essential for its future internationalization [8] - The underlying infrastructure of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" is designed to meet compliance requirements, including anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing, thereby establishing a reliable framework for digital RMB trials [9] - The digital RMB's cross-border capabilities are still in early pilot stages, primarily utilizing platforms like mBridge, indicating a need for further development to achieve global circulation [5][8] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The competition between sovereign currencies like digital RMB and market-driven stablecoins, such as USDT, highlights the challenges in achieving efficiency and cost-effectiveness in cross-border payments [13] - Hong Kong serves as a testing ground for the integration of digital RMB into the global digital asset ecosystem, with the potential to bridge traditional finance and digital assets [14] - The future of digital RMB's internationalization is likened to a marathon, suggesting a long-term strategy rather than a quick rollout [15]