由于特朗普常常拖延作出最终决定，加上他年初推动的庞大财政法案在立法程序上非常复杂，7月将面 临多个重要截止时间，这些节点可能对美国股市乃至全球市场产生重大影响。 据道琼斯市场数据，自1950年以来，标普500在7月有45次上涨，平均涨幅达1.3%。 随着春季行情进入尾声，标普500自4月初低点已上涨超过20%。但在6月最后几周开始走弱，过去一个 月仅上涨了0.5%。这种季节性利好或许能为市场提供一些支撑。 Siebert Financial的首席投资官马克·马莱克（Mark Malek）表示："尽管目前尚无实质性协议，但许多关 税已被暂时削减或延后，且各方似乎都有意在某个时间点寻求共识。" 风险三：美方表态伊朗问题，或引发油价冲击 Navellier Calculated Investing创始人路易斯·纳维利尔（Louis Navellier）表示："伊朗局势的不确定性导 致能源价格高企，增加了通胀预测的复杂性，也阻碍了关税谈判的进展。与此同时，被称为'大而美'的 法案仍在朝7月4日的目标推进，而不断修改的内容也让市场中涉及补贴削减的板块持续动荡。" 风险四：财报季将揭示企业实际表现 首个可能影响下半年市场 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕高位震荡 （豆粕周报6.16-6.20） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期相对正常 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆偏强震荡，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计冲高回落，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回升，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高位 | ...

Group 1 - The G7 summit concluded with a significant bilateral meeting between Canada and the U.S., highlighting the importance of U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade tensions [1][3] - Canada aims to demonstrate its new government's stance towards the U.S., especially in light of the previous administration's tough approach, which included high tariffs on Canadian goods [3][5] - The urgency of the meeting was underscored by the impending expiration of a 90-day tariff "grace period," with ongoing negotiations showing little progress [3][8] Group 2 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's approach included flattery towards President Trump, emphasizing U.S. leadership in the G7 and the importance of cooperation [5][7] - Carney's strategy reflects a diplomatic inclination to resolve issues through personal rapport, aiming to influence U.S. policy towards Canada [7] - The G7 summit was prepared to forgo a joint statement to maintain unity and avoid public disagreements among member countries [7][8] Group 3 - Initial feedback from Trump suggests that Carney's flattery may have been effective, as there was no outright rejection of a potential tariff agreement with Canada [8]

来源：新华国际头条 英国《金融时报》20日披露，美国官员要求日本进一步提高防卫费比例，日方被激怒，取 消定于7月初举行的两国高级官员会晤。 两名日本官员和一名消息人士说，美国国防部负责政策事务的副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比近 期要求日方把防卫费占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例进一步提高至3.5%，日方不满，决定 取消定于7月1日举行的日美防长和外长"2+2"年度会晤。 一名日方官员说，日方决定取消会晤，原因还包括日本定于7月20日举行新一届参议院选 举。曾为美国政府工作的资深日本问题专家克里斯托弗·约翰斯通告诉《金融时报》，日方 把日美防长和外长"2+2"会晤视为"展示日美联盟力量的宝贵机会"，但现在，"东京方面看 似认定，在选举前举行会晤的政治风险高于政治收益"，推迟会晤显示"日方对双边关系现 状和未来感到非常不安"。 特朗普今年再次出任总统后继续就防务费向盟友施压。科尔比今年早些时候提出，日本应尽 快将防卫费比例提升至3%。对此，日本首相石破茂回应道，日本的防卫费由日本决定，而 不是根据其他国家说了什么来决定。 日本政府在2022年底正式通过文件，规定要在2027财年实现防卫费在GDP中占比提升至 2%的目标。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-20 成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 风险 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹本 周产量较上周有所上升，库存、需求略微下降；热卷产量和消费上升，库存小幅下降。昨日，全国建材成交9.01 万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求维持韧性，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累 ...

桥本英二会长兼首席执行官（CEO）（左）以不退让的决心面对美国总统特朗普，致力于完成经营改革（REUTERS） 尽管美国前总统拜登下达叫停收购的命令，但日本制铁没有放弃。突破口是喜欢推翻拜登政策的特朗普 上台。在日美关税谈判的幕后，日本制铁打出了最后一张牌——投资约110亿美元…… 日本制铁和美国围绕收购美国钢铁公司（US Steel）的攻防战事实上已经结束。尽管此前僵持不下，但 日本制铁没有让步。美国是否需要日本制铁来重振制造业？日本制铁的会长兼首席执行官（CEO）桥本 英二通过软硬兼施的博弈，将与美国总统特朗普的交易引向了"逆转胜利"。 带来逆转突破口的是美国政权换届。 特朗普喜欢推翻拜登的政策，具有灵活性。日本制铁踏实地采取了游说和私底下交涉等行动。多次与美 国商务部长卢特尼克会面，也接触了对收购计划表示理解的议员。 特朗普喜欢以关税为契机、重振美国制造业的故事。4月9日，随着金融市场出现美国股票、债券、货币 同时下跌的"三杀"，特朗普把刚刚启动的对等关税的大部分暂停90天。为了摆脱困境，美国与日本等国 正式展开关税谈判，随后围绕收购美国钢铁公司的博弈也明显取得进展。 在举行第3轮日美关税谈判的5月23 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆因假日休市一天，消息面短期平静和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...

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Economic Growth and Consumption - The core viewpoint is that consumption will play a more significant role in driving economic growth this year, with retail sales expected to exceed a 5% growth rate, compared to 3.5% last year [2][5] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [4][5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [5] Foreign Trade Performance - The total value of goods trade in the first five months was 17.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, indicating better-than-expected foreign trade performance [10] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased significantly by 9.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% due to tariff increases [10] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" has contributed to the positive foreign trade data, as companies rushed to export before anticipated tariff hikes [9][10] Service Consumption and Innovation - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of the post-95 and post-00 generations, is driving demand for emotional value and personalized consumption [6] - Service consumption can be categorized into survival, development, and experiential services, with a focus on promoting experiential services through innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Increasing public service investment and improving income distribution are essential for enhancing overall consumption [8] Policy Recommendations - To address weak price levels and stimulate consumption, targeted policy measures should include improving income distribution and increasing public consumption [8] - The government could consider expanding subsidies from durable goods to service consumption and providing direct consumption subsidies to low-income groups [5][8]

Economic Data Overview - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1][2] - For the first five months, China's total import and export value of goods was 17.94 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a sustained growth trend [1][5] Consumer Spending Insights - The growth in consumer spending in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and emerging consumption trends like "self-indulgent consumption" [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales, contributing 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories in the first five months [2][3] - The retail sales growth is expected to surpass 5% this year, compared to a 3.5% growth in the previous year, as consumption plays a more prominent role in economic growth [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The foreign trade performance in the first five months was better than expected, influenced by "export rushes" and a notable increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN, despite a decline in exports to the US due to tariffs [1][5][6] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 2.9% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 8.1% [5] Policy Recommendations - Future consumption policies could expand from durable goods to service consumption and provide direct subsidies to low-income groups [2][3] - To enhance service consumption, there is a need for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios, integrating new business models and products [3] Inflation and Economic Balance - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in the first five months, indicating a need for policies to promote economic balance and reasonable price recovery [4][5] - The weak price level is attributed to intense competition in investment-driven sectors, income distribution disparities, and underutilized public consumption [4][5] Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for gold prices is characterized by short-term volatility and long-term upward trends, influenced by interest rates, the dollar's performance, and geopolitical risks [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 30% this year, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [8]