Core Point - The South Korean presidential office indicates that U.S. trade negotiations will include increased defense spending and the purchase of American weapons [1] Group 1 - The negotiations are focused on enhancing defense collaboration between South Korea and the United States [1] - There is an emphasis on the financial commitment from South Korea towards U.S. defense products [1] - The discussions may lead to significant changes in South Korea's defense procurement strategy [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment and its implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding both domestic and international factors affecting market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Fundamentals - The report highlights the resilience of the domestic economy, noting that key indicators such as industrial profits and consumer spending remain robust despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It points out the dual mission of consumption in driving economic growth while also addressing structural challenges within the economy [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Insights - The analysis indicates a trend of increasing financial support from the government to stabilize market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector [4]. - It discusses the implications of monetary policy adjustments and the need for careful monitoring of financial indicators to gauge future economic performance [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The article reviews recent policy measures aimed at fostering economic growth and stability, emphasizing the ongoing commitment to reform and opening up [4]. - It notes the significance of fiscal policies in supporting key sectors and the potential for new policies to emerge in response to evolving economic conditions [4]. Group 4: International Context - The report examines the impact of global economic trends, including U.S. monetary policy and trade dynamics, on the domestic market [3][4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding international economic signals to make informed investment decisions [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing positive changes due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and optimistic signals regarding new trade agreements between the U.S. and its major trading partners, leading to a significant recovery in investor risk appetite and a strong performance in capital markets, particularly in U.S. equities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index rising by 31.88 points (0.52%) to close at 6204.95, marking a historical high. The S&P 500 accumulated a 10.57% increase in Q2 and a 5.50% rise in the first half of the year [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 275.50 points (0.63%) to 44094.77, with a June cumulative increase of 4.32%. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 96.28 points (0.48%) to 20369.73, with a June increase of 6.57% and a Q2 surge of 17.75% [3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The global market is closely monitoring the expiration of the "90-day tariff suspension" announced by President Trump, which is set to end on July 9. This suspension was intended to create space for trade negotiations [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about signing a series of trade agreements before the deadline but warned of high tariffs on countries that fail to reach agreements. The decision on whether to extend the suspension lies with President Trump [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The market is increasingly focused on the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations that inflation may continue to decline. There is speculation that the Fed could begin rate cuts as early as September, with a possibility of action in July [3][6]. - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that various paths are possible regarding interest rates, emphasizing the need for more economic data to make informed decisions. The market currently assigns a 21.2% probability to a July rate cut and a 75.1% probability to a September cut [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the geopolitical dynamics following US military actions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Iran and its implications for various sectors including oil and trade. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US Intervention and Regional Dynamics** - The US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites have raised questions about the continuation of US intervention and its impact on regional dynamics. Key Gulf states are concerned about potential escalation and threats to oil infrastructure [2][4] 2. **Political Coalition Stability** - There is a growing divide within the Republican party regarding foreign policy, particularly between isolationist factions and traditional hawks. Polls indicate that 53% of Republicans oppose military action in Iran, which could affect President Trump's domestic agenda [3][4] 3. **Impact on Domestic Policy Agenda** - The recent events may delay the passage of key domestic policies, including the OBBB and tax cut extensions. Increased military involvement could exacerbate fiscal deficit concerns, with past US military engagements costing trillions [4][5] 4. **Oil Prices and Inflation** - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude prices to nearly $77 per barrel, a more than 30% increase from May lows. This rise in oil prices could hinder recent disinflation trends and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][6] 5. **Trade Negotiations with China and Europe** - The US's military actions have strained relations with China and the EU, complicating ongoing trade negotiations. Key deadlines for US-EU tariffs and US-China talks are approaching, raising questions about the future of these negotiations [6] 6. **Constitutional Concerns** - The strikes have raised constitutional questions regarding the War Powers Resolution, with lawmakers divided on the need for congressional oversight. This situation may reshape the balance of authority between the executive and Congress in national security matters [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report highlights the potential for increased volatility in oil prices as a key variable for inflation and monetary policy direction, emphasizing the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and economic indicators [5][6] - The implications of US military actions extend beyond immediate regional concerns, affecting domestic policy, trade relations, and constitutional governance, indicating a complex web of consequences that investors should monitor closely [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa Ryozo refrained from commenting on the details of trade negotiations with the United States [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is currently engaged in trade negotiations with the United States [1] - Minister Akizawa's lack of comments may indicate a cautious approach towards the negotiations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Next week (April 28 - 30), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should avoid risks during the May Day holiday. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations and spring - planting weather for US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures market has recently been affected by the sharp rise and fall of the spot market, and the current concerns in the spot market have been initially alleviated. The soybean meal futures price may decline and may pre - trade the pressure of arrivals in May - June. If the soybean spot crushing capacity increases rapidly after May Day, the spot price may decline rapidly; otherwise, it may decline slowly. Domestic soybeans have recently mainly followed the price fluctuations of soybean meal. When the soybean meal price rises, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increases, driving up the price of food soybeans. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the external and domestic spot markets, so it is necessary to avoid holiday risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of US Soybeans and Domestic Futures Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybeans**: The prices of US soybean futures showed mixed trends with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The decline was due to President Trump's criticism of the Fed Chairman for not cutting interest rates in a timely manner and China's denial of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The increase was due to hopes of US trade negotiations, the US saying that Sino - US negotiations were ongoing, and Trump saying that he had no plan to fire the Fed Chairman. There were no large - scale sales orders for US soybeans this week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.62% [1]. - **Domestic Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean futures first rose and then fell. For soybean meal, the price fluctuations on the futures market mainly came from the indirect influence of the spot market and the 05 contract. At the beginning of the week, the spot price rose significantly, and the northern region drove up the price in the southern region due to spot shortages. On Thursday afternoon and Friday, the spot price dropped significantly, and the tension in the spot market was initially alleviated. For soybeans, the price mainly followed the large - scale fluctuations of the soybean meal spot price. When the soybean meal price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increased, driving up the price of food soybeans. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 0.33%, and the main a2507 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.94% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were lower than expected, which had a negative impact. In the week of April 17, for shipments, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 500,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 31%. The cumulative export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 4.276 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments of US soybeans to China were about 70,000 tons, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 2.214 million tons (about 2.351 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current season (2024/25) were about 280,000 tons (about 550,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales in the next market season (2025/26) were about - 12,000 tons (about 180,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 280,000 tons (about 730,000 tons in the previous week), lower than the expected 300,000 - 700,000 tons. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop season (2024/25) were about 180,000 tons (about 700,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales to China in the next crop season (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week of April 21, the US soybean planting progress was 8%, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average of 5%, which had a neutral impact [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit**: As of the week of April 25, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for June - July decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased slightly week - on - week [2]. - **Weather Forecast in US Soybean - Producing Areas**: According to the weather forecast on April 26, in the next two weeks (April 27 - May 11), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas was basically normal, and the temperature was relatively high, which had a neutral impact [2]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 260,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 115,000 tons, compared with about 117,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 649 yuan/ton, compared with about 231 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 82 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of April 18, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 58% and a year - on - year decrease of about 73% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of April 25, the weekly domestic soybean crushing volume was about 1.41 million tons (1.32 million tons in the previous week and 1.92 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 40% (37% in the previous week and 55% in the same period last year). Next week (April 26 - May 2), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.47 million tons (1.72 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate is 41% (49% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On April 28, there will be another auction of imported soybeans. On April 23, the planned auction of imported soybeans was about 624,000 tons, and the actual transaction was about 107,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 17.2% and an average price of 3,780 yuan/ton. According to the announcement of the National Grain Trading Center on April 24, the planned auction of imported soybeans on April 28 is 456,000 tons, which has a negative impact and will relieve the tight spot market [4]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Price Differentiation**: The prices of soybeans in the Northeast production area and the Inner - Pass area increased, while the prices in the sales areas were stable. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas was in the range of 4,120 - 4,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the Inner - Pass area, the purchase price range of clean soybeans was 5,060 - 5,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,480 - 4,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Impact of Soybean Meal Price on Soybean Purchase in the Northeast**: With the significant increase in the soybean meal price, the production enthusiasm of processing enterprises in the region has increased, and they are actively purchasing raw soybeans. The prices of oil soybeans and low - protein soybeans have risen, driving up the price of food soybeans. The sowing time of the new crop is postponed compared with last year due to more precipitation and lower temperatures in the production area, and soybean sowing is expected to start after May Day [5]. - **Soybean Auction in Inner Mongolia**: The soybean auctions in Inner Mongolia were successful. On April 23, the first auction planned to sell 142,500 tons, and the actual transaction was 133,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,884 yuan/ton. The purchased lots were mostly obtained by processing enterprises and large - scale groups. After adding the cost of discount, miscellaneous fees, and warehousing fees, the cost of this batch of soybeans was above 4,050 yuan/ton, which strongly supported the price of soybeans produced in 2024. On April 27, the second auction planned to sell about 87,000 tons, and the actual transaction was 77,500 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,881.5 yuan/ton. In addition, the market expects that policy - based reserve soybeans will be put into the market in May, which needs continuous attention [5]. - **Stable Demand in Sales Areas**: Although the prices of soybeans in the production areas have risen, the selling prices in many markets are stable. Most dealers still have unsold inventory from the previous period, and the new demand for soybeans from terminal soybean product manufacturers is limited. Various soybean product manufacturers are cautious in purchasing raw soybeans, the transaction of Northeast soybeans is slightly slow, and it is difficult for dealers to increase prices [5].