1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent and WTI may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel; in the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, while SC may test 420 yuan per barrel this year [6]. - In the first half of the third quarter, the market is bullish, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center with difficult - to - refute inventory drawdown; in the long - term, the market is bearish, mainly because of the large long - term surplus pressure from production increases in OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., with difficult - to - refute inventory build - up [6]. - For trading strategies, go long on dips in the short - term and conduct band trading; go short on rallies in the long - term and trend - follow short positions. Clear and take profits on calendar spreads and avoid reverse spreads [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [11]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the Sino - US "trade" relationship eases [16]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [17]. 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ production increase falls short of expectations, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early July. In different countries/regions, there are various supply situations: Qatar shows supply tightness; Iraq's Basrah crude export has issues; the UAE reduces oil allocation; Saudi Arabia may use more heavy crude for domestic power generation; Russia's crude export decreases; the US sees changes in production, drilling, and inventory; Kazakhstan and other regions face supply shortages; Venezuela has supply changes; and Iran's export is at high risk [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - In June, refinery operating rates continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the seasonal demand surge. In different regions, demand varies: in Asia, China's refinery demand is affected by sanctions and conflicts, and India, Japan, and South Korea have slow demand recovery; in the Americas, the US is a major consumer, and its demand is affected by the economy and policies; in Europe, refineries are highly dependent on Middle - Eastern sour crude, and the conflict makes buyers cautious [9]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories decline; Cushing inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined oil profit margins recover [59][68][71]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly. The monthly spread declines. SC underperforms overseas markets, and the monthly spread also declines. Net long positions increase [75][76][80].

Core Viewpoint - The premium space created by geopolitical tensions has been fully absorbed, leading to a significant drop in SC crude oil prices, raising questions about whether this is a short-term adjustment or a long-term trend [1] Group 1 - Analysts warn that the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices has not been completely factored in, suggesting potential for further price stabilization [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Support for Consumption**: On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, and taking various measures to promote consumption [7][8] - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. There may still be a chance for a rebound in the first half of the third quarter. Brent and WTI may break through $80/barrel, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. However, in the medium - to - long term, the downward pressure on oil prices is large [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously being removed, and lithium prices have rebounded from a low level. Although the supply - demand pattern has not significantly improved, the outflow of warehouse receipts and high virtual - to - real ratios may lead to increased market volatility [11] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. It is expected to be under pressure in the future [12][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have ceased, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [20][24] - **Silver**: It continues to rise, and the trend strength is - 1 [20][24] **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Inventory decline supports prices, and the trend strength is 0 [26][28] - **Aluminum**: It is operating weakly, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Alumina**: It is oscillating at the bottom, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The off - season is deepening, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Zinc**: It is adjusting in a narrow range, and the trend strength is 0 [32] - **Lead**: It is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the trend strength is 1 [34][35] - **Tin**: There is a tight current situation but weak expectations, and the trend strength is 0 [37][40] - **Nickel**: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] **Energy and Chemicals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are accelerating their removal, and the virtual - to - real ratio of near - month contracts is high. The trend strength is 0 [46][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being removed again, and attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is 0 [50][52] - **Polysilicon**: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. The trend strength is - 1 [50][52] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [53] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [55][57] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [59][61] - **Coke**: After four rounds of price cuts, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Coking Coal**: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. The trend strength is not mentioned [12][13]

2025 年 6 月 25 日 原油：不宜追空，或再次转强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI8 月原油期货收跌 4.14 美元/桶，跌幅 6.04%，报 64.37 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 4.34 美元/桶，跌幅 6.07%，报 67.14 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 51.30 元/桶，跌幅 9.27%， 报 502.30 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 哈萨克斯坦国家石油公司 KazMunayGaz：预计 2025 年腾吉兹油田的原油产量将达 3570 万吨。 2. 特朗普呼吁压低油价，同时鼓励美国能源部加大钻探力度。 3. 俄罗斯六月份的炼油厂产量有望达到今年最高水平。 4. 消息人士：委内瑞拉第二大炼油厂因停电而停产。 5. 市场消息：中东油轮收益跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平。 6. 日本经济产业大臣武藤容治：如果霍尔木兹海峡局势扰乱供应，可能动用石油库存。 7. 消息人士称，俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 将在八月暂停萨哈林-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent may challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter, but faces significant downward pressure in the medium to long term, potentially testing $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to uncertain Middle - East geopolitical situation, risk premium can be speculated or reversed. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase is lower than expected, Iranian supply is shrinking, inventory levels are low, and US shale oil supply growth is slowing, which may drive oil prices up. However, if OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the market will face greater oversupply pressure in the medium to long term, and there may be deeper price drops within the year due to trade - war uncertainties [6]. - The recommended strategies are to hold long - position single - side orders and take profits as appropriate, and to clear long - spread positions and take profits [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - US long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [13]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and Sino - US trade relations ease [17]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens, and social financing recovers [18]. 2. Supply - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Al - Shaheen crude in Qatar has a soaring premium, indicating supply tightness; Iraq is a key country for production - cut compensation; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation; Saudi Arabia is expected to be the main driver of OPEC+ production increase, but other members' compensation cuts slow down the overall pace; Russia's oil revenue may be alleviated by rising oil prices [7]. - **Non - OPEC+ and Other Regions**: The US EIA predicts that 2025 crude oil production will reach a peak and decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and the number of active rigs is at a low level. Iran's oil supply is at risk of interruption due to conflicts, and OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts [8]. 3. Demand - Asian demand: China's crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are significant. If Iranian supply is interrupted, refiners may turn to other sources. India's oil demand is growing, and Asian countries' demand for Saudi crude is affected by price [9]. - American demand: The EIA predicts an increase in US crude oil demand in 2026, and US refineries are increasing jet - fuel production [9]. - European demand: European refineries increase crude oil processing due to strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the cost of importing Atlantic - basin crude has risen [9]. 4. Inventory - US inventory: Commercial inventory declines, and Cushing inventory stabilizes at a level significantly lower than the historical average [62]. - European inventory: Crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline [66]. - Domestic inventory: China's refined - oil profit margin recovers [69]. 5. Price and Spread - North American basis: It rebounds slightly [73]. - Calendar spread: It rebounds [74]. - SC performance: It is weaker than the overseas market, with a declining calendar spread and low valuation [75]. - Net long - position: It stabilizes [77].

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

分析师们正努力预测以色列和伊朗不断升级的冲突可能对油价产生的影响。 继上周五以色列对伊朗的军事和核基础设施发动突然袭击后，这两个地区宿敌之间已经展开了五天的螺 旋式升级战。 美国总统特朗普周二要求德黑兰"无条件投降"，并警告华盛顿的耐心正在耗尽。作为回应，伊朗最高领 袖哈梅内伊威胁称，如果美国进行军事干预，将给其带来"无法弥补的损害"。 近几日大幅上涨的油价在周三继续走高。 投资管理公司Clean Energy Transition的创始人Per Lekander形容，在上周以色列袭击伊朗之前，鉴于欧 佩克（OPEC）和非欧佩克产油国供应增长充足而需求疲软，石油市场的状况很"糟糕"。 "我越来越相信，我们正走向像2014年或2020年那样，即油价跌至30-50美元的低价，以压低资本支出并 开启新周期。事实上，当前的冲突使得冲突结束后出现这种结果的可能性更大，因为生产商现在正尽可 能多地生产和进行套期保值，"Lekander在一份报告中说。 能源市场正在权衡美国直接卷入冲突的可能性，以及出现重大供应中断的潜力——特别是最坏的情况， 例如伊朗封锁连接波斯湾与阿曼湾的、具有高度战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。 石油经纪商P ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 18 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 中东局势持续紧张，油价高位盘旋 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 6 月 17 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 3.07 美元/桶，至 74.84 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 3.22 美元/桶，至 76.45 美元/桶， 涨幅 4.40%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 中东地缘局势紧张。美国总统特朗普表示，从未以任何方式、任 何形式与伊朗就"和平会谈"联系。以色列国防部长卡茨称，以军已 摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并计划摧毁伊朗核计划的所有 基础设施。以方将继续针对伊朗军事领导人、核计划和导弹系统发动 袭击。 四、后市展望 短期内市场仍将交易中东地缘局势，油价高位盘旋。从基本面来 看，夏季驾车旅行旺季临近，主要石油消费大国炼厂开工率已从检修 中恢复，在伦敦结束的中美经贸谈判取得积极进展，宏观环境目前亦 较为宽松，且 OPEC ...