Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are under pressure from multiple factors, including potential supply increases and limited geopolitical premiums, despite seasonal demand expectations for refined oil products [1] Industry Summary - Geopolitical premiums are providing some support, but potential supply increases are suppressing oil prices [1] - The third accelerated production increase by OPEC+ may impact the market [1] - Trade tensions are expected to lead to long-term demand suppression [1] Company Summary - U.S. oil production stands at 13.392 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.04% and a year-on-year change of 2.23% [1] - U.S. net crude oil imports are at 2.582 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.45% and a year-on-year increase of 33.57% [1] - U.S. refinery throughput is 16.49 million barrels per day, with a month-on-month change of 0.54% and a year-on-year change of 0.05% [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rate is at 90.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [1] - China's major refinery utilization rate is 73.26%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points [1] - Shandong independent refineries have a utilization rate of 46.09%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0 percentage points [1] Inventory Summary - U.S. total oil inventory (excluding SPR) is 1.223 billion barrels, compared to 1.218 billion barrels the previous week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.19% [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory is 444.3 million barrels, compared to 442 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [1] - U.S. gasoline inventory is 226 million barrels, compared to 225 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.57% [1] - U.S. distillate inventory is 104 million barrels, unchanged from the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.80% [1] - European crude oil inventory is 56.794 million barrels, compared to 55.133 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.60% [1] - European refined oil inventory is 5.18 million barrels, compared to 5.265 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.07% [1] - Global floating storage is 88.198 million barrels, compared to 83.761 million barrels the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.08% [1] Price Spread Summary - The crack spread in the U.S. Gulf Coast is $21.61 per barrel, down from $22.91 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 14.84% [1] - The Brent transatlantic crack spread is $26.26 per barrel, down from $26.56 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 21.53% [1] - The Middle East crack spread is $13.71 per barrel, up from $12.52 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 10.11% [1] - The Southeast Asia crack spread is $12.40 per barrel, up from $11.76 per barrel the previous week, with a year-on-year change of 34.99% [1] Price Differential Summary - The WTI 1-6 month spread is $1.69 per barrel, down from $1.95 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent 1-6 month spread is $1.37 per barrel, up from $1.27 per barrel the previous week [1] - The Brent-WTI spread is $3.24 per barrel, down from $3.38 per barrel the previous week [1] - The EFS is $1.79 per barrel, up from $1.54 per barrel the previous week [1] - The SC-BRENT spread is -$1.07 per barrel, down from -$0.70 per barrel the previous week [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a divergence in aromatics profitability with PX strengthening while pure benzene weakens [4][5]. Core Insights - Aromatics prices have followed a downward trend alongside oil prices, with pure benzene margins at 619 CNY/ton, near historical lows, and PX margins at -41 USD/ton, showing some recovery from previous lows [4][5]. - The demand for pure benzene is suppressed due to low profitability in downstream products, while PX demand is positively influenced by the recovery in PTA production and margins [4][13]. - The report anticipates a short-term stabilization for pure benzene and a gradual recovery in the medium to long term as overseas refineries exit the market [4][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends, with oil prices declining and drilling day rates showing variability, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [4][26]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a rebound in oil prices, although the overall margins remain low [4][19]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to 64.78 USD/barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.54%, while WTI prices also fell [4][26]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 443 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising as well, indicating a widening supply-demand trend [4][28]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 566, reflecting a reduction in exploration activity [4][36]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin decreased to 12.23 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread also saw a slight decline [4][19]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price reaching 4922 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend in the polyester supply chain [4][19]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][19]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. in the polyester sector [4][19].

Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% at 42,322.75 points and the S&P 500 up 0.41% at 5,916.93 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 19,112.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, Tesla down over 1%, and slight declines in Apple, Nvidia, and Google; Netflix rose over 2%, while Microsoft and Intel saw minor increases [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Up Fintech down over 8%, Alibaba and WeRide down over 7%, and Futu Holdings down over 5%; JD.com, Baidu, and NIO also saw declines of over 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX up 0.72% at 23,695.59 points, France's CAC40 up 0.21% at 7,853.47 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.57% at 8,633.75 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% at $3,243.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% at $32.79 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell significantly, with the main U.S. oil contract down 2.31% at $61.69 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.22% at $64.62 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.24% to 100.83, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 69 basis points against the dollar to 7.2045 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 7.95 basis points to 3.963%, the 3-year yield down 9.23 basis points to 3.951%, the 5-year yield down 10.6 basis points to 4.056%, the 10-year yield down 10.08 basis points to 4.434%, and the 30-year yield down 8.09 basis points to 4.89% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 4.658%, France's 10-year yield down 8.5 basis points to 3.291%, Germany's 10-year yield down 7.7 basis points to 2.619%, Italy's 10-year yield down 8.4 basis points to 3.624%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 8.2 basis points to 3.233% [1]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 API 数据显示，美国原油库存增长 428 万桶，但成品油库存回落明显，叠加 宏观预 ...

Supply and Demand - Asian PX prices have significantly increased due to unexpected losses in multiple PX facilities, tightening near-term supply and demand expectations [1] - Asian PX operating rates have improved to 70.6% (+2.7%), while domestic PX operating rates have risen to 78.6% (+5.6%) following the restart of some PX facilities [2] - PTA operating rates have decreased to 72.5% (-5.2%) due to planned shutdowns of certain facilities [2] Market Outlook - Recent progress in US-China trade negotiations has improved market sentiment, supporting a rebound in oil prices, although there are concerns about potential downward pressure due to Iran's willingness to negotiate and OPEC+ production increases [3] - PX supply is expected to tighten in the second quarter due to increased unexpected losses in PX facilities and delayed maintenance in some PTA plants, which supports short-term PX demand [3] - Despite potential short-term pressures on PX prices due to weak oil price momentum and expanded losses in downstream polyester, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain strong, leading to a bullish outlook for PX prices in the near term [3]

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.52美元，收于每桶63.15美元，跌幅 为0.82%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.54美元，收于每桶66.09美元，跌幅为0.81%。 美国能源信息局在当日发布的数据显示，美国上周商业原油库存量为4.418亿桶，环比增加350万桶，而 此前市场预期为减少110万桶。同期，美国汽油和蒸馏油库存分别环比下降100万桶和320万桶，丙烷和 丙烯库存则环比增加220万桶。 数据还显示，上周美国炼厂日均原油加工量为1640万桶，环比增加33万桶；上周美国炼厂平均开工率为 90.2%，高于前一周的89%；上周美国日均汽油供应量为879.4万桶，环比增加7.7万桶；上周美国日均原 油净进口量为247.2万桶，环比增加42.2万桶。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2390万桶，环比减少110万桶；上周美国战略原油 储备为3.99亿桶，环比增加52.8万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1338.7万桶，环比增加2万桶。 新华财经纽约5月14日电（记者刘亚南） 上周美国原油库存意外增加和市场获利了结双重利空共振，国 际油价14日震荡收跌。 瑞银集 ...

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 60.97 | 61.53 | 63.13 | 60.56 | 1.57 | 22.33 | | Brent | 主力 | 64.05 | 64.99 | 66.40 | 63.88 | 1.69 | 41.80 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 489.3 | 479.5 | 489.9 | 477.1 | 1.08 | 7.7 | 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@c ...