7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇诚邀您莅临【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】！ 我们邀请到了东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果先生莅临现场，基于最新市场数据与独家研究框架，深度剖析 2025 下半年中国资 本市场发展路径与机遇。从"流动性牛"到"基本面牛"，资本市场中期震荡上行趋势明确，把握关键窗口，共话市场新局！ 2025 年，宏观环境从"弱复苏"到"强预期"，全球经济复苏动能分化，地缘政治与货币政策交织扰动， A 股在估值修复与盈利验证中震荡前 行。中国证监会" 1+N "政策体系加速落地，结构性货币政策工具精准发力，叠加居民储蓄转化趋势与外资配置周期重启，市场正处于关键 的"信心重估"窗口期。 分会场3 主持人开场 09:00-09:05 神秘大咖 09:05-09:20 演讲嘉宾:李开复博士 09:20-09:50 零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长 09:50-10:20 演讲嘉宾:陈果 东方财富证券研究所副所长、 首席策略官 演讲主题:百年之变局下的投资之道 10:20-10:50 演讲嘉宾:崔宸龙博士 10:50-11:20 前海开源基金投资部总监、基金经理、 直席 ESG 官 格隆汇金格奖ES ...

Core Viewpoint - The event held in Longhua District aimed to address challenges faced by companies seeking to go public and to enhance understanding of capital market dynamics, featuring discussions with experts [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Starry Longhua" listing event is the fifth in a series, organized by the Longhua District Development and Reform Bureau, with guidance from the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Committee and Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][5]. - The event included participation from nearly 20 companies planning to list, as well as representatives from specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [1]. Group 2: Market Development and Support - Longhua District has established a comprehensive cultivation system for companies aiming to go public, categorized into "reserve, cultivate, apply, and list" phases [8]. - Currently, there are 40 listed companies in the district with a total market value of approximately 1 trillion yuan, and initial fundraising totaling about 63.2 billion yuan [8]. - Among these, 29 companies are listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a market value of around 500 billion yuan and initial fundraising of about 28.9 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Industry Composition - Over 85% of the listed companies in Longhua District are in advanced manufacturing, and more than 80% are private enterprises, highlighting the strength of the advanced manufacturing sector and the vitality of the private economy as key drivers of high-quality development [8]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Experts from Galaxy Securities and Zhonglun Law Firm provided insights on topics such as IPO pathways, listing review focus areas, and the impact of the new Company Law on corporate governance [9]. - The event also included discussions on how the capital market can support new productive forces, with a focus on recent policies allowing companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [9].

Core Viewpoint - Companies are experiencing anxiety over uncertainty, leading to a stagnation in capital markets during April [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Investment banking activities prefer clear environments and will pause operations in the absence of clarity [1] - The level of activity in the bond market will depend on merger and acquisition transactions [1]

花旗：计划在资本市场和杠杆融资领域招聘人才。 ...

上周国内权益市场延续震荡走势，万得全A周涨幅1.61%，日均成交量维持在1.2万亿元附近。具体来 看，创业板、中证2000、和中证1000涨幅靠前。上周港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数均上涨2.2%。从行 业来看，上周通信、有色金属和电子上涨较多，交通运输、食品饮料和家电下跌较多。 事实上，自5月12日中美日内瓦会谈结束后，过去的4个交易周里，万得全A维持窄幅震荡，区间涨幅为 1.68%，区间振幅仅为2.84%。《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布后，双方承诺互相取消 91%的关税， 互相暂停24%的关税90天，仅保留4月2日以来10%的对等关税。然而从过去一个月的协议落实情况观 察，美方陆续新增出台多项对华限制措施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件 （EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。接下来将举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，意味着未 来中美沟通的领域将更加丰富。泓德基金认为，接下来的一周，全球资本市场会高度关注中美在英国会 谈结果。 从债券市场看，上周债市整体走出窄幅震荡状态，收益率"短强长弱"、曲线走陡。信用债收益率下行为 主。泓德基金分析，展望下一阶段，尽管目前市场对关税谈判逐步脱敏，但中美 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses upcoming positive news expected to impact the market next week, particularly focusing on the high-level talks between the US and China scheduled in London [3][4] - It highlights that while there was a positive sentiment from the recent communication between the two countries' leaders, it did not translate into immediate market gains, indicating a potential disconnect between sentiment and market performance [3][4] - The upcoming negotiations are anticipated to address sensitive issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, and rare earth exports, with a high probability of favorable outcomes for the capital market [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the market experienced slight declines despite the positive sentiment, suggesting that the market's reaction may not align with the underlying positive developments [3] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the developments from the upcoming talks, as they could lead to significant market movements depending on the outcomes [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Foreign Trade Trust has achieved significant recognition in the bond market by being listed among the "Top 100 Bond Market Traders" and "Top 10 Trust Companies in Bond Market Trading" for three consecutive years, reflecting its strong performance and commitment to serving the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Company Achievements - In 2024, China Foreign Trade Trust achieved a bond trading volume of nearly 820 billion yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company held approximately 640 billion yuan in bonds issued on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, ranking among the top in trading and new bond subscription volumes among trust companies [3]. - The company has been recognized for its comprehensive service system that includes trust, fundraising, valuation, trading, risk control, and settlement, which has garnered widespread market acclaim [3]. Group 2: Future Plans - China Foreign Trade Trust aims to deepen its participation in the bond market by enhancing both the breadth and depth of its services, focusing on stable trading and responsible financial practices [4]. - The company plans to contribute to the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality economic development while creating long-term value for investors [4]. - The commitment to financial innovation and service to national strategies will be central to the company's future endeavors in the capital market [4].

北京证监局、行业协会第三联合党委相关负责同志，协会理事长姜修昌同志，监事长袁正刚同志出席会 议。协会秘书长李洪海主持会议，北京证监局相关负责同志发表讲话。北京上市公司433家会员单位及 证券时报等新闻媒体代表参会。(燕云) 会议要求，面对当前资本市场复杂形势，各上市公司要在推动高水平科技自立自强、建设现代化产业体 系、增强市场信心等方面发挥重要作用，以合规稳健促高质量发展。一是稳市场，提升抗风险能力。要 切实落实市值管理要求，用好用足回购增持再贷款政策工具，全力维护资本市场平稳运行。利用并购重 组新政策推动自身产业升级，全方位强化实力。二是守底线，筑牢合规意识。要进一步健全财务管理制 度，规范财务核算，不断提升全员道德水平和财务人员专业能力，坚决杜绝各类造假行为。三是抓基 础，夯实治理根基。要强化内外部制约制衡，充分发挥独董、审计委员会、外部审计机构的监督作用。 要不断建立健全中国特色现代企业制度，持续提升公司治理水平。 会议强调，协会要围绕"协助监管、服务会员、规范提高"宗旨定位，认真倾听会员心声、积极回应诉 求，开展更多内容丰富、形式多样、扎实有效的工作；协会各工作委员会成员要切实履职担当，挖掘辖 区丰富 ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are showing signs of progress, with a joint statement indicating a 90-day pause on tariff increases, which is expected to boost global investor confidence [1][2] - The trade war initiated by Trump has led to significant volatility in global capital markets, with US bonds experiencing notable declines and a lack of buyers for maturing debt [2][7] Group 2: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The A-share market is showing potential for rebound after adjustments, with expectations for a stronger performance in July, particularly in sectors like humanoid robots and AI [3] - The Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is attracting foreign capital, indicating a positive outlook for tech giants [3][4] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong, including tea drinks and trendy toys, is outperforming traditional sectors like liquor and food, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards high-growth potential areas [4] - Investors are increasingly moving from traditional consumption stocks to new consumption opportunities, driven by the appeal of innovative business models [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Challenges - The electric vehicle industry is facing intense price competition, leading to concerns from industry associations about the sustainability of such practices [5] - The price war is a result of market imbalances, with production capacity exceeding demand, prompting manufacturers to lower prices to clear inventory [5] Group 5: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with the first quarter GDP indicating negative growth, raising concerns about a potential recession if the trend continues [7] - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position regarding interest rate adjustments, as rising bond yields reflect decreased interest in US debt, exacerbated by the trade war's impact on government credibility [7][8] Group 6: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's strategy of holding significant cash reserves while waiting for more favorable investment opportunities in the US stock market highlights a cautious approach amid current high valuations [8] - The emphasis on value investing remains crucial for navigating market fluctuations and achieving long-term success [8]

Group 1 - The core distinction between IPO and listing is that IPO is the initial public offering, while listing refers to the trading of stocks on an exchange [2][4] - The average fundraising size for A-share IPOs in 2024 is 1.23 billion yuan, with a preparation period of 18 months for companies [2] - The average interval between IPO approval and official listing is 15-30 trading days, during which companies must complete various administrative tasks [2][4] Group 2 - IPO serves as a source of fresh capital for companies, while listing acts as an accelerator for liquidity in the secondary market [3] - In 2024, the average daily trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is 800 billion yuan, reflecting active trading in listed stocks [3] - In 2023, 23% of companies seeking to go public withdrew their materials during the inquiry phase, highlighting the challenges faced in the IPO process [3] Group 3 - The nature of IPO involves direct capital inflow to the company, while listing does not affect the company's actual capital [4] - The pricing mechanism for IPOs is determined by the issuer and underwriters, whereas listing prices are dictated by market supply and demand [4]