Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report mediocre performance with earnings around $3.65, and the focus will be on consumer traffic and guidance for future performance [1][2][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is anticipated to show a mixed performance, as FedEx previously beat expectations but faced stock punishment due to lack of guidance for 2026 [3][4]. - Companies that provide clear guidance, especially regarding tariffs, have been rewarded, while those that are reluctant to give guidance have faced negative market reactions [4][5]. Operational Efficiency - FedEx is concluding its Drive program aimed at consolidating divisions and enhancing operational efficiencies, which may improve cost management [6]. - The company is also transitioning to a "Network 2.0" strategy to further enhance operational efficiency, although uncertainty around tariffs has impacted overall guidance [6][7]. Tariff Impact - The expiration of the de minimis exemption, which affects packages valued at $800 or less, could have significant implications for FedEx, although the immediate effects may not be visible in the current quarter [8][9]. Trading Strategies - Two trading strategies are being discussed: a bullish call diagonal and a bearish put calendar, both leveraging the dispersion in implied volatility levels [10][15]. - The bullish strategy involves buying a call option with a strike price of $227.12 and selling a higher strike call at $245, with a risk of approximately $740 [12][13]. - The bearish strategy involves buying a put option at $210 and selling the same put in a near-term option, with a risk of about $130 [16][17].

Core Insights - Switzerland's gold exports to the U.S. experienced a historic drop in August due to a temporary tariff decision by the U.S. government, leading to market panic [1][4] - The U.S. imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, causing Swiss gold exports to plummet from over 30 tons in July to just 0.3 tons in August, a 99% decrease [1][4] - The overall Swiss exports to the U.S. fell by 22% month-on-month, with gold exports dragging down the total performance [4] Export Dynamics - The tariff decision resulted in a significant decline in Swiss gold exports, with total gold exports decreasing by 19% to less than 105 tons in August [4] - In contrast, gold exports to China surged more than twofold to 35 tons, indicating a rapid adjustment in supply chains [4] Supply Chain Vulnerability - The incident highlighted the fragility of the global gold supply chain, as Swiss refineries play a crucial role in converting European gold into U.S. standard products [4] - The disruption in Swiss gold exports not only increased procurement costs in the U.S. but also raised concerns about potential short squeezes in the COMEX market [4] Government Response - Although the Trump administration eventually exempted gold bars from tariffs, the Swiss government initiated contingency plans, including proposals to establish refining facilities in the U.S. to balance trade flows [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips, while treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading, and glass recommends buying on dips [1][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; aluminum recommends buying on dips after a pullback; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin and precious metals like gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash recommends an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][18][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate. Apples are expected to be oscillating strongly, and red dates are expected to be oscillating weakly [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs recommend shorting on rallies. Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal is expected to have a weak oscillation, and oils are expected to be oscillating strongly [1][40][44] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by macro - economic factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, while others are influenced by industry - specific supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations [5][10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Driven by technology manufacturing sectors, the index oscillated upward on Wednesday. The market may be looking for a clear main line of prosperity, and a structural market may continue. Fed rate cuts in September may create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing, and the positive spiral of index profit - making effect and incremental funds is still in operation [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: After recent continuous recoveries, key - term yields are approaching important resistance levels. With the end of the tax - payment period, the return of loose liquidity, and the approaching end of institutional balance - sheet adjustment at the end of the quarter, the bond - market inflection point may be approaching, but there may still be fluctuations near the important resistance level [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices are rising across the board, and the procurement rhythm of some enterprises has accelerated [8] - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The anti - involution expectation has resurfaced, and the black sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, the apparent demand, production, and inventory have changed. The futures price is near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side production capacity has remained stable, and inventories have decreased. Demand has improved, and the market sentiment has warmed up. In the traditional peak season, there are positive expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1210 - 1220 for the 01 contract and buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has risen in the range this week. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is strong, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased in the peak season, and the supply is expected to tighten. Although there are concerns about high prices in the market, the copper price is expected to remain strong, and the Shanghai copper main contract may test the 82500 mark [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite production and transportation. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. Demand has entered the peak - season rhythm, but inventories have continued to accumulate. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [11] - **Nickel**: The uncertainty of nickel ore has increased, but the bottom support is still strong. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is strong. Stainless - steel demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and the price of nickel sulfate is rising. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 260,000 - 278,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 - contract [14][15] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: The market's expectation of multiple rate cuts within the year has increased, and the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the 9700 - 10500 range and the Shanghai gold 10 - contract in the 815 - 855 range [15][16] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, and demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. The inventory is high, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [18][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro - economic outlook is positive, supply inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is affected by factors such as crude - oil supply - demand and pure - benzene production. The port inventory is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 7000 - 7300 range [23] - **Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price is high, and the inventory has continued to decline. The macro - guidance has intensified, and the spot - market trading sentiment has weakened. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range consolidation, focusing on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The market's production and sales have weakened, and the price has continued to decline. The supply - side start - up rate has decreased, and the demand is scattered. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract and the positive - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][29] - **Methanol**: The supply has remained stable, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased. The inventory has changed. It is expected to have a weak oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [29] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - consumption season, the downstream start - up rate has continued to improve, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate, with the LL main contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has improved, and manufacturers' shipments have been smooth. However, the production has increased, and there is a surplus in theory. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, and the macro - environment has become better. However, the expected increase in new - cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [35] - **PTA**: After the end of the US traditional fuel - consumption peak season, the demand has weakened, and the international oil price has fallen. The cost and supply - demand are in a reverse - driving situation, and the PTA has accumulated inventory. Due to planned maintenance, the supply - demand pressure is expected to decrease [36] - **Apples**: The early - maturing Fuji in the west is coming to an end, and the quality of the remaining goods has differentiated. The red - general situation in Shandong has some problems, and the inventory - Fuji trading has slowed down. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [36] - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The current consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: On September 18, the pig price continued to decline. The supply in September has continued to increase, and the demand growth is slow. The state may start purchasing and reserve - rotation policies, and there is still pressure - holding and reluctance to sell. In the long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 and 07 contracts and shorting the 03 contract [40] - **Eggs**: As the egg price rebounds to a relatively high level, the cold - storage eggs are being released, and the stocking demand is coming to an end. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month 10 and 11 contracts or hold the 11 put options, and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [41] - **Corn**: It is currently the transitional period between old and new crops. The trade inventory is not high, and the market is waiting for new - crop listings. The new - crop opening price is higher year - on - year, and the price is seasonally under pressure. In the long - term, the corn planting is stable, and the cost support has shifted down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. Domestically, the arrival of soybeans from September to October is abundant, and the price is under pressure due to state - reserve sales, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2980 support level of the M2601 contract [44] - **Oils**: The prices of oils have corrected from high levels. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased, and the export data is conflicting. The US soybean production and supply - demand situation is complex, and the domestic rapeseed oil supply is facing uncertainties. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage of the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [46][51]

Core Viewpoint - Silicon Treasure Technology (300019) announced on September 18 that the impact of tariff policies on the company's hot melt adhesive sales revenue and profits will be negligible in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Strategies - The company is actively promoting product innovation by continuously launching industry-leading and competitive new technologies and products to meet diverse customer needs [1] - The company is enhancing its brand influence through precise positioning and marketing communication to improve brand recognition and reputation, while further expanding its brand competitiveness in overseas sales regions [1] - The company is focused on building a diversified sales network, actively expanding sales in different international regions to strengthen its resilience against risks and enhance growth potential in the global market [1]

Core Insights - Switzerland's gold exports to the U.S. plummeted in August due to a temporary tariff ruling, with exports dropping from over 30 tons to just 0.3 tons, a decline of over 99% [1][2] - The U.S. imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products, which took effect on August 7, prompting Switzerland to seek negotiations to lower the tax rate [3] - In the first quarter of the year, over two-thirds of Switzerland's trade surplus with the U.S. came from gold exports, totaling over $36 billion [3] Export Data - Switzerland's total exports to the U.S. fell by 22% in August compared to July, with gold exports decreasing by 19% to below 105 tons [4] - In contrast, Switzerland's gold exports to China more than doubled, reaching 35 tons in August [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its expansion in the U.S. market and has established a solid foundation for future revenue growth through effective customer acquisition [1] Group 1 - The company is actively developing its global supply chain system in collaboration with multiple partners to mitigate tariff risks [1] - The company will continuously monitor changes in tariff policies and adjust its production and operational strategies flexibly to ensure stable business development [1]

美议员：关税引发的通胀正在"吞噬美国人的薪水" 中新网9月18日电 综合美媒报道，美国消费者越来越感受到特朗普政府关税的影响，美国国会预算办公 室主任日前表示，这些关税正在推动通货膨胀。 据报道，美国国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔表示，关税已经推高通货膨胀，超出该机构最初的 预期。他强调，到目前为止，这些关税对通货膨胀的影响"不仅仅是一点点，而是足以在数据上显示出 来"。 斯瓦格尔还表示，高于预期的通货膨胀令人惊讶，因为有迹象表明，自2025年1月份以来，美国经济已 经显著放缓。 此外，美国《华盛顿邮报》日前报道称，特朗普政府的关税政策不仅伤害了美国国内的民众，也伤害了 生活在国外的美国人。 据《华盛顿邮报》解释，受特朗普政府的关税政策影响，生活在国外的美国人向国内邮寄东西的成本增 加，也导致外国放慢甚至完全停止向美国发货，因为他们不确定如何计算成本。 华盛顿州民主党众议员普拉米拉・贾亚帕尔补充道："从学习用品到汽油再到食品杂货，特朗普正在让 你的生活成本变得越来越高。"这位众议员表示："贫困人群和工薪阶层正在为特朗普鲁莽的(关税)政策 付出代价。" 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击 ...

Core Points - The imposition of a 39% tariff by the Trump administration has severely impacted Switzerland's exports to the U.S., with a notable 22% decline in foreign sales in August compared to July, marking a rare occurrence for Swiss exports [1][4] - The trade deficit with the U.S. has significantly narrowed from 2.93 billion Swiss francs to 2.06 billion Swiss francs (approximately 2.6 billion USD), reaching the second-lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic [1][5] - The Swiss government has been actively negotiating with the U.S. to lower the tariff rates, but efforts have so far been unsuccessful, despite ongoing dialogues [5][6] Trade Dynamics - The 39% tariff on Swiss goods is substantially higher than the average tariff rate of 15% imposed on developed countries, creating a unique challenge for Switzerland [5] - The Swiss agricultural sector remains sensitive to trade negotiations, with strong domestic opposition to increasing imports of U.S. beef and poultry, reflecting a commitment to food security and self-sufficiency [6] - Overall, Switzerland's exports to other European countries and North America have helped mitigate the impact of the U.S. tariffs, resulting in only a 1% decline in total export volume [6] Sector Performance - Exports of luxury watches from Switzerland decreased by 8.6% in August compared to July, while core pharmaceutical exports, which are exempt from tariffs, unexpectedly fell by 1.3% [7] - Despite the resilience shown by the Swiss economy, the government anticipates a significant slowdown in economic growth due to aggressive U.S. taxation policies [7] - Switzerland is actively seeking to diversify its export markets, recently signing a new free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc [7]

（文章来源：新华财经） 反之，他们补充称，若失业率突然飙升，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）或采取更激进的降息措施。 巴克莱预计，在2026年FOMC将维持利率不变，直到出现月度通胀数据放缓的迹象，并确信通胀正回归 2%目标的轨道。 新华财经北京9月18日电巴克莱经济学家指出，美联储利率路径的风险正倾向于推迟降息。他们在研究 报告中表示，若2026年初通胀数据持续显示价格强劲上涨，或关税政策在失业率温和上升背景下推动非 商品领域价格上涨，则可能出现这种情况。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. sanctions target key sectors such as semiconductors, biotechnology, and aerospace, claiming national security concerns while aiming to curb China's technological rise [1] - The sanctions disrupt normal operations of Chinese companies and significantly disturb global supply chain stability [1] - The timing of the sanctions coincides with upcoming U.S.-China negotiations, indicating a strategy to pressure China into concessions during talks [1] Group 2 - The upcoming negotiations in Madrid appear to focus on tariffs, technology restrictions, and cross-border data flow, but the underlying dynamics are more complex [1] - The U.S. aims not only to reduce trade deficits but also to comprehensively hinder the development of China's high-tech industries through tariff policies [1]