关于《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》的说明 习近平 同志们： 受中央政治局委托，我就《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建 议》）起草的有关情况向全会作说明。 一、《建议》稿起草过程 可以说，这次文件起草工作，是发扬党内民主和全过程人民民主的又一次生动实践。 二、起草《建议》稿的主要考虑和《建议》稿的基本内容 《建议》稿起草的总体考虑是，按照党的二十大作出的全面建成社会主义现代化强国"两步走"战略安排，准确 把握"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中的重要地位，深入分析国内外形势，对"十五五"时期我国 经济社会发展作出系统谋划和战略部署。 在《建议》稿起草过程中，我们注意把握以下几点。一是坚持目标导向和问题导向，立足于夯实基础、全面发 力的基本定位，以为基本实现社会主义现代化目标奠定更加坚实的基础为着眼点进行系统谋划，以有力有序有 效应对世界百年变局的新形势和发展中突出问题为着力点补短板、强弱项。二是坚持系统思维，按照统筹推 进"五位一体"总体布局、协调推进"四个全面"战略布局的要求，全面部署经济社会发展和党的建设各方面工 作。三是坚持进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the drafting process and key considerations of the "Suggestions for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing its significance for China's modernization and economic development [3][4][5]. Drafting Process - The drafting of the "Suggestions" was initiated by the Central Political Bureau, with a dedicated team formed to ensure comprehensive input from various sectors [3][4]. - Extensive research and public consultation were conducted, including soliciting over 1.5 thousand suggestions from more than 3 million online comments [4][5]. - The drafting process involved multiple meetings and revisions based on feedback from various stakeholders, reflecting a commitment to democratic practices within the party [5][6]. Main Considerations and Basic Content - The overall consideration for the "Suggestions" is to align with the strategic goals set by the 20th National Congress, focusing on the critical role of the 15th Five-Year Plan in achieving socialist modernization [8]. - The "Suggestions" are structured into three main sections: general overview, specific strategies across various sectors, and concluding remarks on governance and leadership [9]. Key Issues Addressed - The importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan is highlighted as a transitional phase that builds on the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to solidify the foundation for modernization by 2035 [10]. - Economic and social development goals are set, including maintaining reasonable growth rates and improving residents' income, with a focus on enhancing domestic consumption [11]. - High-quality development is emphasized as the central theme, with a strong focus on technological innovation and sustainable practices [12][13]. - The plan aims to strengthen domestic economic circulation while also expanding international trade and cooperation [13]. - The commitment to common prosperity is reinforced, with policies aimed at improving living standards and reducing regional disparities [14]. - The necessity of balancing development and security is acknowledged, with proposals for enhancing national security systems and capabilities [15]. - The importance of the party's leadership in guiding economic and social development is underscored, with mechanisms for improving decision-making and governance [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption and effective investment as a strategic foundation for China's economic development, aiming to enhance the internal circulation of the economy [2][5][15] - The article highlights that in the first three quarters, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with a notable increase in goods retail sales by 4.6% and a slower growth in catering revenue at 3.3% [2] - It is noted that the growth of service consumption outpaced that of goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior, although challenges remain with insufficient effective demand [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between boosting consumption and effective investment, stating that while consumption is prioritized, investment must be effective, focusing on sectors like AI and new infrastructure rather than traditional infrastructure [6][9] - The concept of "effective investment" is defined, emphasizing the need for investments in areas that support high-tech advancements and sustainable development, such as energy supply for AI computing [6][9] - The article mentions that the new policy financial tools introduced in the fourth quarter aim to support new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, contrasting with previous tools that included traditional infrastructure [9] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of public consumption in enhancing private consumption, particularly through social security and welfare programs, to support low- and middle-income groups [11][12] - It highlights the necessity of developing the service industry to absorb employment, especially as traditional industries become more automated [13] - The article suggests that relaxing regulations in certain sectors could stimulate domestic consumption among high-income groups, thereby creating job opportunities and increasing tax revenue [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the economic growth logic for the next five years will focus on both innovation and security, as outlined in the recent policy blueprint from the 20th Central Committee [1][2] - The document highlights seven major goals and twelve strategic tasks for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a strong emphasis on building a modern industrial system and enhancing national security [1][3] - The shift in focus from "supplementing and strengthening the supply chain" to "system restructuring" indicates a strategic elevation of industrial chain security [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of technological innovation and industrial integration as key directions for achieving breakthroughs and fostering new productive forces during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - It notes that the policy aims to enhance domestic demand as a long-term strategy, transitioning from merely facilitating domestic circulation to strengthening it [4] - The emphasis on creating a strong domestic market and improving income distribution reflects a shift towards a dual-driven supply and demand model, aiming for structural upgrades in the economy [4]

Core Insights - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first nine months, marking the highest cumulative growth rate since August of the previous year, with a notable acceleration of 2.3 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] - In September, the profit growth rate reached 21.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from August [1] - The revenue of these enterprises also saw a growth of 2.4% year-on-year in the first nine months, with September's revenue growth at 2.7%, indicating a favorable condition for sustained profit recovery [1] Industry Performance - More than half of the industries experienced profit growth, with 23 out of 41 major industrial categories showing year-on-year profit increases in the first nine months, and 30 industries reporting profit growth in September, representing 73.2% [1] - High-tech manufacturing significantly contributed to overall profit growth, with a year-on-year profit increase of 8.7% in the first nine months, accounting for a 1.6 percentage point increase in total profits for industrial enterprises [1] Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector demonstrated strong support, with profits rising by 9.4% year-on-year in the first nine months, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 6.2 percentage points, contributing 3.4 percentage points to the overall profit growth [2] Enterprise Size and Type - Profits improved across different enterprise sizes, with large, medium, and small enterprises seeing year-on-year profit growth of 2.5%, 5.3%, and 2.7% respectively. Private and foreign-invested enterprises also showed significant profit acceleration, with increases of 5.1% and 4.9% respectively [2] Profitability Metrics - The profit margin for industrial enterprises increased, with the profit margin on operating income reaching 5.26% in the first nine months, up by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year. In September, this margin further improved to 5.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.85 percentage points [2] Economic Outlook - The overall industrial profit growth and recovery are expanding, indicating improved profitability across large, medium, and small enterprises, suggesting a noticeable trend of structural repair amid ongoing global economic uncertainties [2]

大国经济都是内需为主导，市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源，强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。 我国产业体系和基础设施体系配套完善，14亿多人口的超大规模市场潜力巨大。面向未来，无论是深入 推进以人为本的新型城镇化、大力实施城市更新行动，还是扎实推进乡村全面振兴、在发展中稳步提升 民生保障水平，都将有力促进投资和消费良性循环，释放巨大内需潜力。 全会提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，体现了实施扩大内需战略的连贯性。坚持惠民生和促消费、投资 于物和投资于人紧密结合，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，旨在增强国内大循环内生动力和可 靠性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，打通各种卡点堵点，破除地方保护和市场分割，综合整治"内卷 式"竞争，旨在充分释放我国超大规模市场红利。加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，充分激发各 类经营主体活力，加快完善要素市场化配置体制机制，实现市场有效有序、政府有为有度，必将进一步 增强高质量发展动力。 全会对扩大高水平对外开放作出部署，展现了中国坚持开放合作、互利共赢的信心和决心。今年前三季 度，我国货物贸易进出口同比增长4%，其中出口同比增长7.1%，绘出逆势上扬曲线。尽管单边主义、 保护主义逆 ...

国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，各地区各部门认真落实更加积极有为宏观政策，培育壮大新 经济增长点，高技术制造业、装备制造业等新质生产力较快增长，叠加低基数效应影响，规模以上工业 企业利润增速继续回升。 工业企业营收增长加快。前9个月，规上工业企业营收同比增长2.4%，其中9月份营收增长2.7%。营业 收入当月增速连续两个月加快，为企业盈利持续恢复创造有利条件。 国家统计局10月27日发布数据，前9个月，规上工业企业利润同比增长3.2%，为去年8月份以来各月累 计最高增速；较前8个月加快2.3个百分点，呈现加快恢复态势。9月份，规上工业企业利润同比增长 21.6%，较8月份加快1.2个百分点。 不同规模类型企业利润均有改善，私营和外资企业利润明显加快。前9个月，规上工业大型、中型、小 型企业利润同比分别增长2.5%、5.3%、2.7%。分企业类型看，私营企业、外商和港澳台投资企业利润 分别增长5.1%、4.9%。 营收利润率回升。前9个月，规上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.26%，同比提高0.04个百分点；其中，9 月份规上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.49%，同比提高0.85个百分点。 国家金融与发展实验室 ...

国家统计局10月27日发布的数据显示，1~9月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3.2%，为去年8月份 以来各月累计最高增速；较1~8月份加快2.3个百分点，呈现加快恢复态势。 随着更加积极有为的宏观政策落地见效，叠加低基数效应影响，规模以上工业企业利润增速继续回升。 于卫宁分析，高技术制造业带动作用明显。1~9月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长8.7%，较 1~8月份加快2.7个百分点，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长1.6个百分点。其中，9月份高技术制造 业利润两位数增长，增速达26.8%，拉动当月全部规模以上工业企业利润增长6.1个百分点，成为工业企 业高质量发展的重要动力。 企业效益方面，1~9月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.26%，同比提高0.04个百分点；其中， 9月份规模以上工业企业营业收入利润率为5.49%，同比提高0.85个百分点，已连续两个月提高。 庞溟分析，从利润角度看，9月份营收利润率为5.49%，与8月份利润率相比大致保持稳定，且每百元营 业收入中的成本和费用继续环比减少，表明企业在成本控制和产品结构优化方面继续取得积极进展。 庞溟表示，9月工业企业利润增长面和回升面进一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic decision made by the Central Committee, led by Xi Jinping, to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, which is crucial for maintaining China's development initiative [1] - The "dual circulation" development pattern was conceived in response to the changes in the global environment due to the pandemic, highlighting the need for new development strategies [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant contributions from domestic demand, with an average contribution rate of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] Group 2 - China's goods trade volume is projected to grow from 32.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 43.8 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.0% [2] - The focus on strengthening domestic circulation is seen as essential for countering uncertainties in international circulation, with a strategic emphasis on building a robust domestic economic system [2] - The Central Committee's commitment to expanding domestic demand is aimed at enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic circulation [3] Group 3 - The importance of a strong domestic market is highlighted as a strategic foundation for China's modernization, supported by a well-developed industrial and infrastructure system [3] - The plan includes promoting urbanization, rural revitalization, and improving living standards to stimulate investment and consumption [3] - The Central Committee's deployment for expanding high-level opening-up reflects China's confidence in open cooperation and mutual benefits, with a 4% year-on-year increase in goods trade in the first three quarters of the year [4] Group 4 - Despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism, the commitment to high-level opening-up and the Belt and Road Initiative aims to enhance the efficiency of domestic and international market interactions [4] - Historical resilience against external risks has been a key factor in China's ability to navigate challenges, emphasizing the importance of focusing on domestic development [4]

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern [1] - The session highlighted the need to boost consumption and effective investment, while breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market [1][6] - Recent consumption data shows that China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.5877 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5% in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Consumption and Investment - The core task of macro policy in the next phase is to significantly boost consumption, with a focus on developing the service sector to absorb employment [4] - The relationship between boosting consumption and effective investment is crucial, with the emphasis on "effective" investment being a key distinction [7] - Effective investment should prioritize sectors like AI and new infrastructure, moving away from traditional infrastructure investments that have seen a decline [7][10] Group 2: New Infrastructure and Market Demand - New infrastructure projects should be aligned with real market demand, ensuring resources are allocated to areas that enhance economic density and facilitate the flow of factors [9] - The government is expected to introduce new policy financial tools to stimulate fixed investment, focusing on digital economy and green technology rather than traditional infrastructure [10] Group 3: Social Welfare and Employment - The Fourth Plenary Session stressed the importance of improving public welfare and ensuring common prosperity, particularly in the context of an aging population [12] - Public consumption spending is expected to expand rigidly, focusing on social security, childcare, and basic public services to encourage private consumption [12][13] - The development of the service sector is seen as a key area for creating quality employment opportunities, especially as traditional industries become more automated [13]