资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 研究助理 相关研究 A 股市场波动上行 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 1 月 19 日周一，A 股市场波动上行，成交量小幅回落；国债期货市 场多数下跌；商品多数下跌，沪金价格创新高。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：创业板 ETF 盘中放量下挫 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 1）股票市场：波动上行，部分宽基 ETF 盘中波动明显 市场波动上行，量能小幅回落。1 月 19 日，A 股缩量震荡。其中，上证指数收涨 0.29%报 4114 点，深证成指涨 0.09%，创业板指跌 0.7%，北证 50 涨 0 ...

盘面上，电网设备概念爆发，十余只成分股涨停，保变电气、中国西电、广电电气涨停。机器人概念震 荡拉升，五洲新春、日盈电子涨停。贵金属板块涨幅居前，四川黄金、招金黄金涨停。旅游酒店概念走 强，大连圣亚、九华旅游涨停。商业航天概念局部活跃，九鼎新材、越秀资本涨停，超捷股份涨超 15%。下跌方面，CPO概念震荡下挫，剑桥科技跌停，腾景科技、光迅科技下挫。 热点角度来看，涨停板最多的方向是"电网设备"！这板块无论持股还是追涨体验都不太好。上周五追涨 的套了一批，今天上午自救反包，然后又是各种炸板，到了下午再拉升，比较考验心态。"机器人"有10 来家上板，主要靠消息催化，持续性目前看不大。整体上，现在板块的持续情况是不怎么行的，上周四 五连续两天表现最强的"芯片半导体"，今天就没表现。其实，自从市场最大主线题材"商业航天"退潮以 来的三天，每天的板块都是在快速轮动，完全无法让市场资金形成市场共振，也就很难在短期内奢望指 数发动新一波上攻行情。关于这个话题更多独到见解尽在"有看投"APP上，大家赶紧扫描下方"有看 投"二维码，注册下载"有看投"APP，小编和各位投资大咖在那里恭候各位股友~让我们一起抓住大牛股 ~ 直播课程 ...

以封单金额计算，锋龙股份、特变电工、汉缆股份等涨停板封单资金居前，分别有12.93亿元、3.93亿 元、3.85亿元。 从封单力度（封单量占流通A股比例）来看，恒大高新、锋龙股份、天地在线等力度较大，分别为 9.66%、9.45%、4.08%。 | | | | 1月19日涨停封单资金居前的个股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨停封单额 | 涨停板 | 涨停原因 | | | | (亿元) | 情況 | | | 002931 | 锋龙股份 | 12.93 | 14连扳 | 优必选拟入主+机器人 | | 600089 | 特变电工 | 3.93 | 首板 | 特高压+沙特订单+多晶砖 | | 002498 | 汉缆股份 | 3.85 | 2连板 | 钱书记吧+世这山奥+话题学 | | 601179 | 中国西电 | 2.92 | 首板 | 电网设备+特高压中标+央企 | | 000987 | 越秀资本 | 2.30 | 自恢 | 减持中信证券+增持北京控股 | | 002539 | 云图控股 | 2.19 | 首板 | 磷复肥龙头+磷矿自给 | | ...

2025年12月证券类APP月活达1.75亿 创当年单月新高 易观千帆最新数据显示，2025年12月份，证券类APP月活跃人数达1.75亿，环比增长1.75%、同比增长 2.26%，创下2025年单月新高。具体来看，第三方证券APP占据显著流量优势，同花顺、东方财富、大 智慧分别以3670.25万、1822.32万、1297.38万的月活领跑行业；券商自营APP中，华泰涨乐财富通、国 泰海通君弘两家月活突破千万，分别为1212.07万、1040.1万；增速方面，仅有1家APP月活同比增幅超 10%，兴业证券优理宝月活达187.21万，同比大涨20.66%。 (21世纪经济报道) IMF将2025年中国经济增长率上调0.2个百分点至5% 国际货币基金组织（IMF）19日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，将2025年中国经济增长率上调 0.2个百分点至5%，同时上调2026年中国经济增长预期。（央视新闻） 央行正式下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点 专家：有助于增强对重点领域信贷投放积极性 1月19日起，央行下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，并增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，设立 民营企业再贷款等。中国民生 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index performing strongly while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback after a rise [1] - The semiconductor industry chain saw a collective strength due to multiple favorable factors, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Semiconductor ETF (588170) rising 10.17% and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590) increasing by 8.85% over the past week [1] - The domestic semiconductor manufacturing sector is experiencing a wave of expansion, driven by a significant demand for advanced production capacity, which is expected to create a market space of hundreds of billions of dollars for equipment [2] Group 2 - TSMC is projected to achieve record earnings in 2025, with a substantial increase in capital expenditures for 2026, indicating ongoing benefits from AI computing power and advanced processes [2] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is anticipated to see a doubling of the localization rate, supported by the dual drivers of advanced processes and domestic substitution [2] - Investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment are viewed positively, particularly for leading companies with platform capabilities and high-elasticity niche leaders [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 198.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.64% [1] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector saw significant gains, with companies like China Xidian, Dalian Electric Porcelain, and Guodian Electric reaching their daily price limits [1] - The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with stocks such as Jinding New Materials and Yuexiu Capital also hitting their daily limits [3] - The tourism and hotel sector strengthened, with Dalian Shengya and Jiuhua Tourism achieving price limits [7] - The robotics sector experienced fluctuations, with stocks like Riying Electronics and Zhejiang Xiantong reaching their daily limits [5] Notable Stocks - A total of 44 stocks hit their daily limits in the morning session, with a limit rate of 67%. Notable stocks included Fenglong Co., which continued its streak with 14 consecutive price limits, and Xinhua Department Store with 4 consecutive limits [1] - In the electric grid equipment sector, stocks such as Shuangjie Electric and Yinen Electric saw significant increases of 17.65% and 13.89%, respectively [2] Investment Insights - The State Grid Corporation of China announced that its fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which is anticipated to drive high-quality development in the new power system supply chain [2][3] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Zhongke Aerospace completing their IPO guidance work, marking it as one of the fastest in the sector [4][13] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the per capita disposable income for residents in 2025 is projected to be 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% [29] - The GDP for 2025 is expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.0% [30]

Core Viewpoint - MiniMax, a leading AI company focused on multimodal model development, has made significant strides in the market, achieving a record IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within just over four years of its establishment [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - MiniMax was founded at the end of 2021 and specializes in the research and development of multimodal models [1]. - The company completed its IPO on January 9, 2026, with an initial offering price of 165 HKD per share, experiencing a surge of over 70% on its opening day, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 90 billion HKD [1]. - The company is recognized as one of the first in Shanghai to receive approval for large model registration, focusing heavily on model intelligence breakthroughs [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, MiniMax reported total revenue of 53.44 million USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 175% [2]. - The gross margin for its ToB (business-to-business) operations reached 69.4%, while C-end (consumer-end) products achieved a positive gross margin of 4.7% [2]. - Projections from CITIC Securities indicate that MiniMax's revenue will maintain a high growth rate of over 90% from 2025 to 2027 [2]. Group 3: Subsidiary Developments - MiniMax has established five wholly-owned subsidiaries, with the latest being Guangzhou Yiyu Jizhi Technology Co., Ltd., registered on January 14, 2026, with a capital of 70 million CNY [3][4]. - The Guangzhou subsidiary is positioned as a significant expansion in the South China region, with its business scope prominently featuring "intelligent robot sales," unlike other subsidiaries [3][4]. - The establishment of the Guangzhou subsidiary is seen as a strategic move following the IPO, indicating MiniMax's commitment to expanding its footprint in the robotics sector [4]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - MiniMax has entered into a strategic partnership with ZhiYuan Robotics, providing comprehensive AI technology support for text-to-speech applications, which is expected to enhance the integration of multimodal AI technologies in robotics [5]. - This collaboration aims to accelerate the application of full-modal AI technology in the robotics industry, highlighting MiniMax's focus on AI and robotics [5].

二、当日热点 1.智能电网 智能电网概念今日大涨，汉缆股份、森源电气、广电电气等多股连板，三变科技、特变电工等反包。 据新华社1月18日报道，中国航空发动机集团有限公司"太行7""太行15""太行110"重型燃气轮机创新发展示范项目，近日成功通过国家能源局燃气轮机创新 发展示范项目评估验收。 中国航发专家表示，评估验收完成，标志着中国航发突破了燃气轮机研发设计、关键材料开发、关键部件制造、试验验证和运行维护等核心技术，将有力带 动我国燃气轮机行业产业化、商业化发展。 一、行情回顾 市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌互现。黄金股集体走强，四川黄金、招金黄金涨停。电网设备股再度爆发，中国西电、积成电子等多股涨停。商业航天概 念反弹，航发控制、九鼎新材等涨停。机器人概念拉升，五洲新春、日盈电子涨停。下跌方面，算力硬件股下挫，剑桥科技跌停，锐捷网络跌超10%。个股 涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3500股飘红，今日成交2.73万亿。 此前，央视新闻报道，1月15日，国家电网宣布"十五五"期间（2026-2030年）固定资产投资预计达4万亿元，较"十四五"增长40%，年均投资规模突破8000亿 元，创历史新高。 | 三变科技 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in major indices and the significant activity in specific sectors such as electric grid equipment and precious metals [2][4][11]. Market Performance - On January 19, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%. The total market turnover exceeded 27 trillion yuan [2]. Sector Highlights - The electric grid equipment sector saw a surge, with companies like Baobian Electric, China West Electric, and Guangdian Electric hitting the daily limit. The sector's positive outlook is attributed to favorable news and increasing industry prosperity [4]. - Sanbian Technology, a key player in the electric grid equipment sector, experienced a dramatic trading day, initially hitting the daily limit down before closing at the limit up, with a total transaction volume of 2.592 billion yuan. The company's stock has risen by 65.69% year-to-date [4][6]. Company Insights - Sanbian Technology specializes in oil-immersed transformers and modular substations, with over 1,600 specifications of power transmission and transformation equipment used in various sectors including national grid and photovoltaic [6]. - The company announced plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Europe with an investment of 500,000 euros to expand its cross-border trade and overseas market presence [6]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with companies like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold reaching their daily limits. The rise in gold and silver prices is linked to geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][11]. - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of over $4,690 per ounce, while silver prices also hit a record high of over $94 per ounce due to tariff announcements from the U.S. government [10][11]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector became active, with stocks like AVIC Aircraft and Aero Engine Corporation of China hitting their daily limits. The sector is experiencing a phase of strong growth driven by advancements in rocket manufacturing and satellite technology [12][16]. - Recent successful tests of the "Chuan Yue Zhe 1" manned spacecraft by Beijing Chuan Yue Zhe Manned Space Technology Co. mark significant progress in China's commercial aerospace capabilities [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in trading volume for major broad-based ETFs, specifically the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and the Southern CSI 500 ETF, on January 19 [1][3][5] - During the period from January 14 to 16, stock ETFs (excluding cross-border ETFs) experienced a net outflow of 163.54 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs alone seeing a net outflow of 198.48 billion yuan [9] - Despite the outflows, the new fund issuance market remains active, with some funds announcing early closure of fundraising due to high demand [12] Group 2 - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF recorded a trading volume of 138 billion yuan on January 19, with notable spikes in trading activity during specific time frames [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF also showed significant trading volume, reaching 127 billion yuan for the day, indicating a similar trend to the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF [5] - Other ETFs, such as the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF and the Huaxia CSI A500 ETF, also exceeded 100 billion yuan in trading volume, reflecting a broader trend in the market [7] Group 3 - Certain thematic ETFs, such as the Harvest Software ETF and the Southern Nonferrous Metals ETF, attracted significant inflows, indicating a divergence in investor interest within the ETF market [10] - The market outlook suggests increased volatility in 2026, but structural opportunities remain significant, particularly in sectors like AI, solid-state batteries, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [13]