特朗普：关税公式是基于常识，旨在保护美国的利益。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 10, 2025, including U.S. Treasury auction results and Federal Reserve announcements [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. will auction 10-year Treasury bonds with results expected to include the bid-to-cover ratio and the awarded yield [1] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 will be reported, providing insights into the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may influence market expectations [1] Group 2: International Economic Data - Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will be finalized, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials, including Musalem and Waller, will provide commentary on economic conditions and monetary policy outlook, which could impact investor sentiment [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar, influenced by Trump's tariffs and rising national debt, is prompting global investors to reconsider their reliance on the dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar Decline and Economic Impact - The dollar index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst start since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system [1]. - The US economy is facing significant issues, including a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and a consumer confidence index drop to 93, alongside a national debt exceeding $37 trillion [3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is evident, with BRICS countries increasing their local currency settlements by 47%, and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 58%, the lowest since 1995 [3]. Group 2: Trump's Influence on Dollar Value - Trump's imposition of widespread tariffs during his second term has contributed to the dollar's decline, creating market uncertainty [3][6]. - The weakening dollar is seen as beneficial for US exports, potentially reducing the trade deficit, as it makes American goods cheaper on the international market [6][10]. - Despite the short-term benefits of a weaker dollar, there are concerns that it may undermine the dollar's credibility and accelerate the trend of de-dollarization [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current dollar crisis mirrors the events of 1973, when the dollar depreciated due to the end of the gold standard and the oil crisis, leading to global inflation and a significant stock market decline [4]. - The weakening dollar has led to a stronger euro and yen, with capital flowing back to European and Japanese markets, while emerging markets like India attract foreign investment [4].

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group highlighted significant opportunities in the U.S. wealth management sector [1]

他同时称，对俄罗斯总统普京"很不满意"。特朗普当天在白宫举行的内阁会议上说，普京说过很 多，"态度一直非常好"，但结果"毫无意义"。 就在特朗普对俄罗斯怨念连连之际， 美国媒体8日爆料称，根据该媒体获得的一段音频，特朗普去年 在一次私人捐赠者聚会上透露，他曾威胁俄总统普京说，如果俄军进攻乌克兰，美国将"轰炸莫斯 科"作为报复，试图以此威慑俄罗斯。 "我对普京说，如果你进攻乌克兰，我就轰炸莫斯科，我告诉你，我别无选择。普京说他不信，但我 觉得他有10%信了我。"特朗普说。 特朗普还说如果是他而非拜登担任总统，俄乌冲突和本轮巴以冲 突就不会爆发。 据称 ，上述言论是在2024年特朗普为竞选连任时，在纽约和佛罗里达举行的筹款活动中发表的，并 被录音保存了下来。 2025.07. 09 本文字数：1019，阅读时长大约2分钟 来源 | 长安街知事、 中国经营报 综合 新华社、 新京报、 观察者网、环球时报、 参考消息 等 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间8日表示，已批准向乌克兰运送更多防御性武器，并考虑进 一步对俄罗斯实施制裁。 彼时，特朗普正在 竞选 第二个总统任期，在喀山参加金砖峰会的 普京则在 记者会上回应 ...

紧盯晚间美国贸易信号，美元和黄金的背水一战，鹿死谁手？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击 进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, increasing pressure on these key allies in trade and military spending [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 25% tariff on Japan is higher than the previously suspended "reciprocal tariff," indicating a significant escalation in pressure [2]. - Both Japan and South Korea have substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., making them primary targets for the Trump administration's tariff strategy aimed at correcting perceived trade imbalances [3]. - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a heavy burden for both countries, particularly given their reliance on exports to the U.S. for key industries like automotive [3]. Group 2: Military Spending Pressure - The Trump administration has repeatedly demanded that Japan and South Korea increase their military budgets and share more of the costs for U.S. troops stationed in their countries [3]. - Recent statements from Trump suggest that South Korea's payments for U.S. troop presence are "very low," further intensifying the pressure on both nations [3]. Group 3: Responses from Japan and South Korea - Japan's Prime Minister expressed regret over the tariff announcement and indicated a desire to negotiate terms that protect national interests while achieving a win-win outcome [4]. - South Korea is preparing for negotiations with a focus on national interests, emphasizing the need for thorough preparation in trade discussions with the U.S. [4]. - Both countries are employing a dual strategy of soft and hard measures in response to the tariffs, seeking concessions from the U.S. while protecting their core interests in critical sectors like automotive and agriculture [4]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Trust Issues - Trust in the U.S. has significantly declined in Japan, with a recent poll showing only 22% of the population expressing trust, a drop of 12 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - In South Korea, the perception of the U.S. relationship has worsened, with a doubling of respondents rating the relationship as "bad" over the past year [7]. - The ongoing pressure from the Trump administration has led to a shift in public sentiment, with calls for both countries to assert more independence in their foreign policies [6][7].

智通财经7月9日电，美国MBA抵押贷款申请指数上周上升9.4%。 ...