[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 市场点评 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-6-26 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 6 月 25 日创业板大涨，从行业上涨结构看，为创业板上涨贡献颇多的主要 是证券行业大涨，其原因在于港股券商强势表现的情绪传导，其背后催化 在于香港证监会批准国泰君安国际升级虚拟资产交易牌照，这为近期活跃 的稳定币主题在证券板块实现了联动，受此影响国泰君安国际港股收涨近 200%，同时也催化 A 股证券板块。 此外，国防军工大涨也提供一定贡献，原因在于近日存在较多催化剂：一 是 6 月 24 日官宣将于 9 月 3 日举行阅兵活动，即中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年纪念活动。二是上海合作组织成员国国防部长会 议参会国国防部长在青岛会见，其中包括伊朗、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯等今年 来地缘政治冲突热点地区的直接参与方，军工出口预期再起。 ⚫ 站上新中枢，积聚新力量，再做新突破 潜在流动性足、 ...

6月25日，A股银行板块继续强势上涨，申万银行指数当日涨幅达到1.05%。板块内42只成份股中，28只 实现上涨。其中，宁波银行以3.01%的涨幅领跑，江苏银行和成都银行也表现突出。 更为亮眼的是，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行等多家银行股价创下历史新高。市场交投活跃，板块单 日成交额突破360亿元，招商银行以28.63亿元的成交额位居榜首，农业银行、江苏银行成交额紧随其 后。 自年初以来，银行板块的表现堪称A股市场中最为亮眼的板块。Wind数据显示，从1月1日至6月25日， 申万银行指数累计涨幅达到15.77%，这一涨幅不仅远超同期仅上涨0.64%的沪深300指数，更是在31个 申万一级行业中位居第一。 展望下半年，银行板块的股息魅力仍将是吸引防御性资金、提供基础支撑的核心力量。 A股银行板块延续年初以来的强势表现，6月25日申万银行指数（WI.801780）涨1.05%，工商银行、农 业银行等国有大行股价更是创下历史新高。 在低利率与资产荒的双重背景下，兼具高股息稀缺性与经营稳健性的银行股，正成为保险资金等长期资 本热捧的"避风港"，推动板块年内累计涨幅已超15%，领跑全市场。 市场观点认为，下半年银行板块 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant IPO boom, with over 160 companies currently queued for listing, and more than 40 companies submitted applications in May alone [1] - The trend of dual listings in both A-share and H-share markets is becoming more common, with notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine leading the way [1] - Analysts expect the current trend to continue, as the discount for H-share issuance is relatively low, and the proportion of shares issued compared to total equity is also low, minimizing market impact [1][2] Group 2 - Hedge funds are increasingly adopting arbitrage strategies, going long on A-shares while shorting corresponding H-shares to hedge against macro uncertainties [2] - The rapid pace of IPOs in Hong Kong, with nearly 200 projects in reserve, is contributing to the popularity of this trading strategy [2] - The issuance scale of companies planning dual listings is typically only 3%-4% of their total market capitalization, indicating limited liquidity impact [2][3] Group 3 - The discount rates for H-shares are significantly lower than the historical average, with Haitian Flavor's H-shares at about 12% discount, compared to the 20%-30% range seen from 2021 to 2023 [3] - Institutional sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks is generally positive, with strong inflows of capital from the south, amounting to nearly $90 billion this year, primarily into high-dividend and AI-related stocks [3] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for both A-shares and H-shares, projecting a 9% profit growth for the MSCI China Index this year and a target point of 84 [4] - The firm is optimistic about sectors such as private enterprises, AI, emerging market exports, and high shareholder returns, while also favoring consumer, medical devices, media, and e-commerce retail sectors [4] Group 5 - The new consumption and pharmaceutical sectors are currently thriving in the Hong Kong market, attracting significant international investment [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, having faced pressure in recent years, is now seen as a long-term investment opportunity due to its favorable fundamentals and manageable policy disruptions [5] - The new consumption sector is viewed positively for its growth potential, although high concentration and valuation concerns are leading to cautious entry from new investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in holdings of domestic large bank stocks by Ping An Insurance and other mainland insurance companies, betting that high dividend yields will offset the adverse factors of narrowing bank profit margins and profit pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Ping An Insurance has substantially increased its holdings in several large banks listed in Hong Kong since the end of 2024, with a total holding size reaching HKD 180 billion (USD 23 billion) [1]. - The proportion of Ping An's holdings in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has risen to 18%, while holdings in China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China have exceeded 15% [1]. - The combination of low valuations and high dividend yields in Hong Kong bank stocks provides a more attractive allocation choice for insurance funds, highlighting the market's urgent demand for high-yield assets [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - The influx of insurance capital has led to a significant rise in the banking sector, with the Hong Kong-listed Chinese bank index reaching a seven-year high [2]. - Individual stocks like CITIC Bank have achieved historical highs, and Agricultural Bank of China also closed at its highest level since its listing in 2010 [2][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Insurance funds favor high dividend assets, with the average dividend yield of large Chinese banks in Hong Kong exceeding 4%, compared to a benchmark 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% [3]. - Ping An Insurance emphasizes that the low volatility and high dividends from bank stocks will contribute to considerable interest income, maintaining a balanced investment strategy between growth stocks and high dividend value stocks while increasing non-bank stocks to diversify risk [4]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Despite strong stock performance, Chinese banks face record-low profit margins and slow profit growth [7]. - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the upward momentum in bank stocks, as banks continue to deal with profit margin compression and high funding costs [8]. - Observations are needed to determine whether bank credit expansion can translate into real economic activity, as stock performance has diverged from the banks' fundamentals [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of Taibao Zhiyuan (Shanghai) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. as a registered securities private fund manager, marking a significant move by a major insurance company into long-term stock investment [1][3]. - The private fund is controlled by China Pacific Insurance, with its shareholders being Pacific Asset Management Company [2]. - The management team includes Xiang Tao, who has extensive experience in finance and investment, and He Jiacheng, who has a background in risk management [4]. Group 2 - The initial target scale for the private fund is set at 20 billion yuan, aimed at responding to national calls for expanding private securities investment fund reforms [5]. - Several major insurance companies have initiated private securities funds, including China Life and Xinhua Insurance, which have launched a fund with a scale of 50 billion yuan [6]. - Other insurance firms, such as Sunshine Life and Taikang Life, have also announced significant investments in private securities funds, with planned contributions of 20 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan respectively [7][8].

距离上半年结束还有4个交易日，截至2025年6月23日，银行(申万一级)指数今年以来累计涨幅14.11%， 在31个申万一级行业中排名第一，尤其二季度以来银行股持续上涨，一批银行个股连续创出历史新高。 作为普通投资者，如有闲置基金不妨考虑效仿险资，通过港股通金融ETF，H股银行含量最高的ETF， 一键打包在港上市的大金融企业。截至6月23日，其跟踪指数的近12个月股息率已达到8.08%，高出同 一时间的10年期国债收益率6.44%；当然如果对A股情有独钟，也可以选择银行ETF基金(515020)等A股 类似标的。 回顾上半年，高股息策略继续强势演绎，资金面催化下，银行板块绝对收益、相对收益明显。今年以来 全球宏观事件频发，不确定性急剧提升了全球金融资产的波动性，在整体市场风险偏好下移的背景下， 获取稳定的绝对收益成为主流投资选择，高股息策略备受青睐。在国家队资金的有力支撑、长期资金持 续入市等利好推动下，银行板块估值在基本面未见明显改善的情况下实现了稳步复苏，且目前交易拥挤 度指标并未达到前期高点。 因为银行板块兼具高股息、低估值特征，长线资金持续流入。而险资在这方面配置需求仍大。在目前中 长期无风险利率维持 ...

6月25日，港股红利ETF基金（513820）又带上了"XD"的前缀，熟悉分红的小伙伴应该已经看出了，今天是港股红利ETF基金（513820）的除息日，本月 分红又推进一步了，到月底（6月30日）即可收息！作为分红次数最多的港股红利类ETF，港股红利ETF基金（513820）这是第12次带上"XD"前缀，也第 12次将现金红利发放日设置在月底了，力求给投资者带来更好的投资体验！ 6月25日，港股红利ETF基金（513820）震荡，截至13:04，微跌0.41%，盘中溢价持续走阔，当前达0.25%！资金持续汹涌布局高股息资产，港股红利 ETF基金（513820）已连续17日累计吸金超2.7亿元，规模首超30亿元，同类规模领先！ (特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，若盲目投资溢价率过高产品，可能遭受重大损失) 港股红利ETF基金（513820）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，国泰海通领涨4.89%，汇丰控股、越秀地产涨超1%，三桶油飘红，煤炭股悉数回调，银行股涨 跌不一，建设银行、中信银行等微涨，工商银行、农业银行等回调。 【港股红利ETF基金（513820）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 ...

权重指数上涨的背后，也有股票ETF助力。据银河证券基金研究中心统计，截至6月24日，全 市场1119只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模达到3.37万亿元，资金净流入超过5亿元，这也是 股票ETF连续8个交易日出现单日资金净流入，合计266.9亿元。 【导读】股票ETF连续8个交易日资金净流入超260亿元，助力沪指重返3400点 中国基金报记者 若晖 6月24日，权重股"大象起舞"，上证指数重返3400点，股票型ETF同步资金净流入，助推多 个主流指数翻红。 银河证券基金研究中心数据显示，6月24日，全市场股票ETF（含跨境ETF）单日资金净流入 5.03亿元，这也是股票ETF连续8个交易日出现单日资金净流入。 从各类型ETF资金流入的方向来看，股票宽基ETF及债券ETF是资金流入的主要目标，基准做 市信用债ETF及沪深300ETF资金净流入居前。 股票ETF连续8个交易日 出现资金净流入 6月24日，A股主流指数集体走强，沪指重返3400点。截至当日收盘，上证指数上涨 1.15%，报收于3420.57点；深证成指上涨1.68%，报收于10217.63点；创业板指上涨 2.30%，报收于2064.13点。沪深两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with a cumulative increase of 14.11% as of June 23, 2025, ranking first among 31 industries, driven by high dividend strategies and stable absolute returns amid global macro uncertainties [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The banking sector features high dividend yields and low valuations, attracting long-term capital inflows [2] - Insurance capital continues to favor high-dividend equity assets, with bank valuations between 0.6-0.7 times, providing a cost-effective investment option [2] - Southbound funds have been actively buying Hong Kong and H-shares of banks, particularly state-owned banks, which have seen a significant increase in their market share [2] - Public funds are expected to increase their allocation to banks, with current allocation weights significantly lower than the sector's representation in the market [3] Group 2: Banking Fundamentals - The banking sector is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, with credit growth around 7%-8% and a gradual slowdown in the trend of deposit regularization [4] - The optimization of liability costs is expected to mitigate the impact of LPR cuts, leading to a narrowing of interest margin declines [4] - Non-interest income is showing marginal improvement, although other non-interest income sources are under pressure [4] - Asset quality remains stable, supported by ongoing government support for the real economy, although retail loan quality may face marginal deterioration [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trading congestion indicators for banks have not reached previous highs, indicating room for further growth [5] - The trading volume and turnover rate of state-owned banks are significantly lower than previous market peaks, while city commercial banks are seeing increased activity [5] - Agricultural commercial banks have experienced a notable increase in trading activity, benefiting from recent market trends and index inclusions [5] Group 4: ETF Performance - The banking ETF (515020) has a dividend yield of 5.19%, a PE ratio of 7.21, and a PB ratio of 0.72 as of June 23, 2025 [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190) has a dividend yield of 8.18%, a PE ratio of 6.48, and a PB ratio of 0.58 [6] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159547) has a dividend yield of 5.29%, a PE ratio of 8.25, and a PB ratio of 0.84, with banks comprising 49.2% of the index [6]

平安保险及其他内地保险公司大幅增持国内大型银行股票，押注高股息收益率将抵消银行业利润率收窄和盈利承压的不利因素。 值得注意的是，平安保险并非唯一大举买入银行股的保险公司。瑞华保险今年3月将其在港股中信银行的持股比例从4.98%提升至5%。新华人寿 保险1月从澳大利亚联邦银行手中收购杭州银行5.45%的股份。 6月24日，据彭博基于交易所数据计算，平安保险自2024年底以来大幅增持多家大型银行在港上市股份，总持仓规模达1800亿港元（230亿美 元）。此轮买入已将其在工商银行港股的持股比例推高至18%，在招商银行和农业银行的持股比例也升至15%以上。 分析指出，港股银行股以低估值和高股息率的组合，为保险资金提供了更具吸引力的配置选择。这一趋势也凸显了市场对高收益资产的迫切需 求。 在保险资金的集中流入下，银行板块近期持续大涨，港股中资银行指数创七年新高。中信银行等个股更是创下历史新高，农业银行周二收盘也创 下2010年上市以来最高水平。 保险资金青睐高股息资产 据证券时报消息，今年1月23日，中国证监会主席吴清表示，引导大型国有保险公司增加A股投资规模和实际比例，其中从2025年起每年新增保费 的30%用于投资 ...