1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of ferrosilicon is expected to see a decline in production from November to December due to losses of manufacturers and postponed new - capacity launches. The demand side will continue the downward trend of crude steel production, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - Macro: The "anti - involution" policy has led to the first monthly increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. Policies for new energy consumption and regulation have been released, and an energy supply guarantee meeting has been held [7]. - Overseas: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - Supply and demand: Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 480 yuan/ton. The November tender price of Hegang 75B ferrosilicon is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - Technology: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Considering the macro - situation, supply, and demand, it is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Overall Futures and Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 382,000 lots, a net increase of 25,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 12, a decrease of 54 points [13]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 8450, an increase of 2751. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon basis was - 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 points [22]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry - This week (November 13), the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.42% from last week. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a decrease of 4.36% (710 tons). The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel products was 19,073.8 tons, a decrease of 3.73%. The national weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons [28]. - This week (November 13), the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 3.39% (2670 tons). Inventory in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu increased, while that in Shaanxi and Qinghai decreased [32]. 3.3.2 Upstream - As of November 10, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia remained unchanged at 0.395 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh to 0.405 yuan/kWh. As of November 13, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged [37]. - As of November 13, the spot production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%, and in Ningxia was 5631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.50% [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from last week and 9400 tons from last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons (7.25%) from the same period last year [46].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures declined slightly compared to the previous day's closing prices, hitting new lows since October 23 during intraday trading. The futures of coke and coking coal dropped significantly due to coal supply - guarantee policies. Although the spot market still has support, considering the large increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the significant growth in coking coal inventories of independent coking plants and ports, there may be downward pressure on prices due to oversupply. It is expected that the futures of coke and coking coal still need to digest the strong negative factors from the news, and it is advisable to try high - selling hedging or investment strategies. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - guarantee policies and the rhythm of spot price declines [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures, J2601 and JM2601, first declined and then rebounded. J2601 closed at 1686 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 13,768 lots and an open interest of 37,775 lots, a decrease of 164 lots. JM2601 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 572,483 lots and an open interest of 592,106 lots, a decrease of 991 lots. In the black - series futures, the long - short positions of the top 20 in RB2601, HC2601, SS2601, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 contracts also changed [5][6]. - **Spot Market**: On November 13, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some regions was stable, with a 40 - yuan increase in Linfen [8]. 3.2 Outlook for the Future - **Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, improve the performance of medium - and long - term coal contracts, and focus on ensuring coal demand in northern heating areas [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to continuous losses for four weeks, the coke output of independent coking enterprises dropped to a new low since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continued to reduce coke inventories, port coke inventories have increased in the past five weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly, and the coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have also increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Water Conservancy Construction**: From January to October this year, China completed 1.00947 trillion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 46,000 water conservancy projects, and started 28,000 new projects, creating 2.484 million jobs and paying 47.06 billion yuan in wages [12]. - **Energy in Yunnan**: From January to September, Yunnan's energy department promoted the integrated development of "source - network - load - storage", driving a 11.3% increase in coal production, a 7.4% increase in crude oil processing volume, a 6.2% increase in refined oil production, and a 17% increase in natural gas consumption [12]. - **Anhui Kuangneng**: From November 10 - 12, Anhui Kuangneng held a production and operation work symposium for the coal sector, summarizing this year's work and planning next year's key tasks [12][13]. - **Concrete Industry**: Affected by the real - estate market adjustment and infrastructure investment slowdown, the demand in the cement industry is weak, and prices are low. However, prices are expected to recover to some extent under the anti - involution trend [13]. - **Shanxi Coking Coal**: The company's main products are high - quality coking coals, and it has established long - term strategic partnerships with many large steel enterprises. It also has a power generation business with a power - generation capacity of 4.32 million kilowatts per year [13]. - **Other News**: There were coal mine accidents in Henan; Lu'an Huaneng announced its coal production and sales in October; Fangda Special Steel is cooperating with CATL; Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution; Shaanxi's industrial production and consumption of coal, natural gas, and oil showed different trends; Inner Mongolia's coal production was stable, and its new - energy installed capacity increased; Newcastle Port and Indian coal production and exports had certain changes; OPEC predicted an oversupply in the oil market in 2026; India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese steel [11][12][13][14][15]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, iron - water production, coke and coking coal inventories, and the basis of futures contracts [18][20][25][27][28][29].

Group 1 - Gas stocks experienced a strong surge, with companies like Guo New Energy, Changchun Gas, and Victory Co. hitting the daily limit, driven by a significant cold wave expected to lower temperatures by over 12°C in some areas [2] - The cold wave is anticipated to create a seasonal peak in energy demand, likely increasing prices for natural gas and coal, with Qinhuangdao port's coal price exceeding 800 yuan per ton, marking a yearly high [3] - The National Energy Administration is reinforcing fuel supply measures to ensure energy availability during the heating season, with industrial coal production and natural gas output showing steady growth [3][4] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply and peak demand will be adequately met this heating season, with domestic gas production expected to exceed 10 billion cubic meters for nine consecutive years [4] - Major oil companies, Sinopec and PetroChina, are actively increasing their gas reserves and production, with Sinopec projecting a 4.4% increase in gas supply compared to the previous heating season [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of a significant cold wave on energy demand, particularly for natural gas and coal, leading to a surge in stock prices for gas companies and an increase in fuel prices due to heightened heating needs [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gas stocks experienced a strong rally, with several companies such as Guo Xin Energy and Changchun Gas hitting the daily limit up [2]. - The cold wave is expected to push temperatures down significantly, with some areas experiencing drops exceeding 12°C, leading to increased demand for heating [2]. Group 2: Fuel Price Trends - The price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed 800 yuan per ton, reaching a yearly high, driven by early heating demand [3]. - The average daily coal consumption at coastal power plants has increased by over 15% year-on-year due to the early onset of winter [3]. Group 3: Energy Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply will be sufficient for the heating season, with domestic production expected to exceed 100 billion cubic meters for the ninth consecutive year [4]. - Major oil companies are actively increasing their gas reserves and production, with China Petroleum's gas storage capacity reaching a historical high [4].

Group 1 - Gas stocks experienced a strong surge, with several companies hitting the daily limit, including Guo Xin Energy, Changchun Gas, and Victory Co., as a cold wave is expected to bring significant temperature drops across northern China [1] - The cold wave is projected to lower temperatures by over 12°C in some areas, with the highest temperature line dropping to 0°C in northern Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning by November 17 [1] Group 2 - The winter season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to drive up demand for natural gas and coal, leading to increased fuel prices, with Qinhuangdao port's coal price surpassing 800 yuan per ton, reaching a yearly high [2] - The early heating demand due to sudden temperature drops in northern provinces has been a significant factor in the rise of coal prices, with a reported increase in coal consumption by over 15% year-on-year in coastal power plants [2] - The National Energy Administration is taking measures to ensure energy supply during the heating season, with industrial coal production and natural gas output remaining robust, reporting a 5.9% year-on-year increase in natural gas production in October [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply and peak demand will be adequately met this heating season, with domestic gas production expected to exceed 10 billion cubic meters for the ninth consecutive year [3] - Major oil companies, including Sinopec and PetroChina, are actively increasing their gas reserves and production to ensure supply, with Sinopec expected to supply 4.4% more natural gas this heating season compared to the previous one [3] - PetroChina's Longqing Oilfield has completed its gas injection tasks for 2025, achieving a record high injection volume, further enhancing the gas supply capacity [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Huaneng is taking significant measures to ensure energy supply during the winter heating season, emphasizing safety, service, and intelligent management to deliver warmth to households in northeastern China [1] Group 1: Early Heating Initiatives - Huaneng Jilin branch started heating on October 17, ahead of schedule, with Huaneng Songyuan Thermal Power Company beginning supply 10 days early, making it the earliest in Jilin province [2] - Huaneng Jitai Power Plant completed 126 maintenance projects and serviced 328 units to ensure early heating in Jitai District and eastern Changchun [3] Group 2: Safety and Maintenance Measures - Huaneng Daqing Thermal Power Company utilized infrared thermometers to inspect over 20 kilometers of underground pipelines and 150 cable layers, identifying risks of pipeline freezing and cable insulation aging [4] - Huaneng Hegang Power Plant implemented a management mechanism for hazard identification and rectification, completing the first round of hazard clearance within three days [4] Group 3: Intelligent Supply Chain Management - Huaneng is leveraging intelligent technology to enhance traditional heating methods, with the Huaneng Iming Coal Power Company using a 5G-A network for efficient coal transportation, achieving over 230 million tons of coal transport in October [5] - Huaneng Zhaodong Thermal Power Company implemented smart scheduling to monitor and control heating systems across 143 heat exchange stations, transitioning from experience-based to data-driven decision-making [5] Group 4: Expansion of Heating Services - Huaneng Northeast branch increased total heating area by 1.6% compared to the previous season, serving over 720,000 households while prioritizing heating quality and user comfort [7] - Huaneng Dalian Power Plant developed a temperature monitoring router to provide real-time indoor temperature data, enhancing the heating system's responsiveness and efficiency [7]

北方地区已陆续进入供暖季，季节性用能高峰即将到来。今年迎峰度冬期间，能源安全稳定供应是否有 保障？ 近年来我国能源安全保供能力不断增强，为供暖季能源稳定供应打下坚实基础。 ——供应能力持续提升。国家能源局数据显示，前三季度，煤炭先进产能建设持续推进，原煤、油气生 产平稳增长，规上工业原煤、原油、天然气产量分别同比增长2%、1.7%、6.4%。 煤炭供应方面，当前市场总体平衡偏宽松。10月以来，全国煤炭日均调度产量持续处于1200万吨以上的 较高水平。此外，10月以来，国家铁路电煤装车保持在日均5.6万车的较高水平。 天然气供应方面，我国最大的储气库——中国石油新疆油田呼图壁储气库11月10日正式启动第十三周期 采气工作，全力保障今冬明春天然气供应。 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国可再生能源发展势头强劲，共同助力供暖季。截至9月底，全国累计发电装 机容量37.2亿千瓦，同比增长18%。其中，可再生能源装机接近22亿千瓦，风电、太阳能发电合计装机 突破17亿千瓦。 "迎峰度冬期间，我们将持续跟踪煤炭生产、进口、需求等重点指标变化趋势，会同有关方面全力做好 迎峰度冬煤炭保供相关工作。"国家能源局市场监管司副司长张燕秦介 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent decline in futures prices, while some price increases from major coking enterprises are being implemented amidst high costs from coking coal [6] Supply - As of November 13, the average daily production of coking coal from independent coking plants is 630,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons week-on-week. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,092,000 tons, which is a decrease of 5,000 tons week-on-week [3] Demand - As of November 13, the average daily pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate is 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 88.80%, an increase of 1.00% week-on-week. The profit margin for steel mills is 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of November 13, the total inventory of coking coal is 9.4 million tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory at independent coking enterprises is 582,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory at 247 steel mills is 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons week-on-week, and the port inventory is 2.595 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Trends - As of November 13, the main coking coal futures contract 2601 has decreased by 3.5 (-0.21%) to 1,686.0, while the far-month contract 2605 has decreased by 15.5 (-0.84%) to 1,820.0. The price difference between contracts 1-5 has strengthened to -134.0. The price for first-grade wet quenching metallurgical coke in Lüliang is reported at 1,390 yuan/ton, remaining stable day-on-day, while the trade price for first-grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao is reported at 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the market's wait - and - see sentiment is increasing, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of coking coal [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight downward bias" respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. The core logic is that the support from the raw material end has eased, causing coke to oscillate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement and View**: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The National Development and Reform Commission recently held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, mainly focused on ensuring the supply of thermal coal for power generation and winter heating, which has limited impact on coking coal. There are still differences in the market regarding the coking coal supply at the end of the year, and the futures main contract has retraced at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range. The key lies in the actual supply of coking coal [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Movement and View**: The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of an "oscillation approach" [6]. - **Driving Logic**: In the spot market, the latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week, while the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1540 yuan/ton, down 1.91% week - on - week. This week, the industrial game has intensified, and the fourth round of spot price increase for coke has been blocked. There are still differences in the supply of coke raw materials, and the retracement of coking coal at the upper edge of the oscillation range has dragged down the coke futures trend. The focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with an overall oscillation approach. The core logic is that there is a stalemate between bulls and bears, leading to range - bound oscillation of coking coal [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight downward bias" respectively, with an overall oscillation approach. The core logic is that industrial game intensifies, causing coke to move in an oscillatory manner [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement Logic** - The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, focusing on ensuring the supply of thermal coal for power generation and winter heating, which has limited impact on coking coal. There are still differences in the market regarding the coking coal supply at the end of the year. The futures main contract has pulled back at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the actual supply of coking coal [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Movement Logic** - The latest quoted price of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.55%. This week, industrial game has intensified, and there is some resistance to the fourth round of spot price increases for coke. The divergence in the supply of coke raw materials still exists. The pull - back of coking coal at the upper edge of the oscillation range has dragged down the coke futures trend. The subsequent focus is on the actual supply of coking coal at the end of the year [6].