证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 电子行业周报 优于大市 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 预计明年中国本土 AI 芯片占比近半，而 CSP/OEM 亦有望积极采购 H200。据 TrendForce 数据，中国整体高端 AI 芯片市场总量预计在 2026 年有望增长超 过 60%。一方面，本土 AI 芯片仍朝自主化发展，较高潜力的芯片设计商有机 会扩大市场占比至 50%左右；另一方面，由于英伟达 H200 效能较 H20 大幅提 升，对终端客户具有吸引力，如果能顺利销售，预计中国 CSP/OEM 等有望积 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 电子 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 021-60893306 021-60871321 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn 电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力。过去一周上证上 涨 0.03%，电子下跌 3.28%，子行业中光学光电子下跌 1.35%，其他电子下跌 4.63%。同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [6][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape of humanoid robots, suggesting that major players will emerge in this sector, with significant opportunities for specialized robots across various fields [4][19]. - AI infrastructure is highlighted as a key investment theme, particularly in gas turbine and liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the increasing power demands of data centers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The report notes that the generalization of humanoid robots is challenging, with a focus on specialized robots likely dominating the market in the near term. However, as technologies mature, general-purpose robots may replace specialized ones in consumer and certain industrial sectors [4]. - Key companies to watch include Tesla's supply chain partners and those with strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi, Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [4][9]. AI Infrastructure - Gas Turbines - Companies like Wanzhe and Yingliu are positioned to benefit from the growing recognition among gas turbine customers, with expectations of significant growth driven by the power needs of AI data centers [2]. - The report suggests focusing on the gas turbine supply chain, including hot-end blades, generator sets, and supporting components [2]. AI Infrastructure - Liquid Cooling - The trend towards liquid cooling in data centers is noted, with leading suppliers already achieving significant revenue growth. For instance, a Taiwanese company reported a revenue increase of 141.69% year-on-year [3]. - The report recommends focusing on high-value segments within the liquid cooling supply chain, including chillers and compressors, as well as integration and component suppliers [3]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, all rated "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmony (688017.SH): EPS forecasted to grow from 0.33 to 0.66 [12][25]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): EPS expected to rise from 1.60 to 2.06 [12][25]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH): EPS projected to increase from 1.87 to 2.12 [12][25]. - The overall market performance of these companies is expected to exceed the market index by more than 10% [12].

投资机会上，建议关注三条逻辑线： 需要提醒的是，结构性行情意味着分化是常态，普涨难现。投资者的重心应从判断大盘指数涨跌，转向 精选景气赛道与优质个股。 如今日所示，即便在同一条赛道内，龙头公司与平庸公司的表现也可能天 差地别。在参与行情时，务必厘清驱动逻辑是短期事件催化还是中期趋势形成，避免追高陷入被动。 市场永远在波动，但逻辑和价值是穿越波动的锚。 注：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文内容基于公开信息整理，不构成任何投资建议。 今天A股的盘面太有信号意义了！深强沪弱格局彻底拉满，增量资金疯狂进场，跨年行情的味道越来越 浓，这几个关键变化一定要看懂！ 首先，从市场全景数据切入。 截至午盘，A股主要指数悉数上涨，但内部强弱分明：创业板指 （+0.78%）> 深证成指（+0.65%）> 上证指数（+0.34%）。这种"深强沪弱"的格局，本质上是市场风 险偏好（Risk On）提升的信号，因为深市聚集了更多的成长型公司。同时，两市半日成交额达1.25万 亿，连续放量，表明有增量资金在入场博弈，而非存量内卷。反观港股，恒指与科指的分化，进一步印 证了资金在当前阶段对A股成长主线给予了更高溢价。 其次，行业轮动揭示了清晰的 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese AI industry has made significant progress this year, particularly following the rise of DeepSeek during the Spring Festival, leading to a new era of "deep thinking" among domestic AI models [2] - The market capitalization of China's top three AI chip companies—Cambricon, Moore Threads, and Muxi—has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, but they still lag behind Nvidia's market cap of approximately 4.4 trillion USD (around 30 trillion yuan) [2] - The domestic AI supply chain is becoming increasingly important due to comprehensive restrictions on semiconductors from overseas, highlighting the urgency for domestic supply chain localization [2][3] Industry Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) is focused on the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings concentrated in the semiconductor sector, indicating a high concentration and aggressive investment strategy [3] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to domestic computing power, being a financing and margin trading target [3] - Analysts suggest that the competition among Cambricon, Moore Threads, and Muxi is intensifying, and the ongoing market and policy benefits may lead to the emergence of a leading player in China's AI chip sector [2]

国金证券也表示，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产替代空间广阔。半导体设备位于产业链上游，是支撑芯片制造与封测 的核心产业。随着AI大模型驱动存储技术向3D化演进，叠加长鑫、长存等国内存储大厂扩产项目落地，国产半导体设备产业链有望迎来新一轮高速增长机 遇。 行业数据方面，国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）发布报告显示，2025年全球半导体制造设备总销售额预计达1330亿美元，同比增长13.7%，创历史新高。预计 未来两年半导体制造设备销售额将继续增长，2026年和2027年分别达到1450亿美元和1560亿美元。这一增长主要得益于人工智能相关投资的推动，尤其是在 尖端逻辑电路、存储器以及先进封装技术的应用方面。 展望2026-2027年，招商证券认为，AI需求增长带动全球存储及先进制程产能扩张，扩产有望提速；全球半导体设备市场空间持续增长，国内设备技术水平 持续突破，国产化率迎来1-N阶段大规模提升，伴随下游先进存储持续扩产，卡位良好及份额较高的存储设备公司有望充分受益。 今日三大指数红开，半导体设备板块再度走强！半导体设备ETF（561980）高开涨超2%、目前上涨2.32%，成份股珂 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's technology industry is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, transitioning from application-level prosperity to the reconstruction of foundational infrastructure, as highlighted by the recent CCTV Hongmeng Starry Night Gala, which marks a new blueprint across various industries [1][3]. Group 1: Development of HarmonyOS - The HarmonyOS ecosystem has achieved significant milestones, with over 35 million terminal devices and more than 350,000 applications and services available, showcasing China's capability in mastering core operating system technologies [3][5]. - HarmonyOS has rapidly developed, with over 100,000 new devices added daily, marking a critical leap from "usable" to "user-friendly" as seen in the launch of the Huawei Mate 80 series [5][14]. - The operating system is positioned as a third choice alongside Android and iOS, establishing a competitive landscape in the global market [5][19]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of HarmonyOS - HarmonyOS represents China's first fully self-developed operating system, providing a secure and controllable digital infrastructure essential for national security and digital sovereignty [6][8]. - The system's development is not just a technological advancement but also a strategic certainty, ensuring sustainable and controllable growth in a complex international environment [8][10]. Group 3: Ecosystem Challenges and Development - Building an ecosystem is a significant challenge for any operating system, as established players dominate the market, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction [10][11]. - Huawei's ecosystem partners have shown determination and speed in adapting their applications to HarmonyOS, with notable examples including Tencent and Meituan, which have rapidly developed and adapted their software [10][15]. Group 4: Market Performance and Future Outlook - The Huawei Mate 80 series has seen impressive sales, achieving 115% of the previous generation's sales within 15 days of launch, contributing to Huawei's leading market share in China [13][14]. - HarmonyOS is projected to capture approximately 17% of the Chinese smartphone operating system market by Q2 2025, making it the second-largest operating system in the country [19][20]. - The ecosystem is expected to create over 3 million new jobs, with developers in the HarmonyOS ecosystem experiencing a salary increase of 43.1%, surpassing that of Android developers [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by improved liquidity and increased confidence from mainland investors, with significant inflows into technology-focused ETFs [2][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong technology sector has shown strong performance, particularly in integrated circuits, chips, and humanoid robots, leading to active trading in the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) [1][6]. - Southbound capital has accelerated, with a net inflow of HKD 16.274 billion into Hong Kong stocks last week, setting a record for weekly net inflows in December [2][7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index's latest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 23.10, which is at a low percentile compared to the past five years, indicating potential attractiveness for investors [3][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing commercialization of AI is bolstering market confidence, with OpenAI's profitability rising to 70% and rapid advancements in domestic AI technologies [3][8]. - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has attracted over HKD 54.8 billion in cumulative inflows since November 2025, with a significant increase in fund size and shares, making it a key tool for investors seeking opportunities in leading Hong Kong tech stocks [2][7]. - The central government's focus on developing the technology and AI industries, combined with improved liquidity conditions, positions the technology sector as a long-term investment theme [4][9]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The Hang Seng Tech Index includes major companies such as Meituan-W, Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, NetEase-S, and SMIC, which have strong technological foundations and broad business layouts in various tech fields [4][9]. - Compared to A-share hard tech companies, Hong Kong tech assets are more focused on applications and internet platforms, representing a unique investment opportunity [4][9].

Group 1 - The core argument presented is that traditional GDP metrics may not accurately reflect a country's true strength, as highlighted by Elon Musk's assertion that China's comprehensive national power could be two to three times that of the U.S. [1][2] - A country's real strength lies in its agricultural and industrial production capabilities, which Musk emphasizes as the fundamental indicators of national power [3][5]. - China has achieved remarkable agricultural productivity, managing to feed nearly 18% of the world's population with only 7% of the global arable land, showcasing its agricultural prowess [5][7]. Group 2 - In terms of industrial output, China's steel production is ten times that of the U.S., and its electricity generation exceeds that of the U.S. by more than double, indicating a robust industrial foundation [9][11]. - The comparison of production figures reveals that China's vegetable output is 19 times that of the U.S., and its meat production is 1.8 times higher, ensuring food security for its population [7][9]. - The article contrasts the solid industrial base of China with the U.S. economy, which is increasingly reliant on a service sector that constitutes over 80% of its GDP, leading to concerns about economic stability [14][18]. Group 3 - The shift in global power dynamics is highlighted, with a transition from financial dominance to industrial strength as the core of national competitiveness [20][22]. - Chinese companies, such as CATL, are expanding globally, indicating a shift from merely "Made in China" to "Defined by China," as they begin to export not just products but also technology and standards [22][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a complete and resilient industrial chain, suggesting that countries must reduce reliance on single sources in critical industries, where China holds a strategic advantage [24][26]. Group 4 - China's strategy in response to global changes focuses on strengthening its own development rather than direct confrontation, leveraging its agricultural and industrial strengths [26][28]. - The article posits that the U.S. faces internal contradictions and a weakening industrial base, while China continues to invest in technological innovation and maintain a strong industrial foundation [28][30]. - The conclusion draws a stark contrast between China's tangible production capabilities and the U.S.'s reliance on debt and virtual economy, underscoring the importance of solid foundations over superficial metrics [30][31].

Group 1 - Alibaba's DingTalk has initiated a secret project called "D Plan," potentially entering the AI hardware sector [1] - Moore Threads announced a new GPU architecture "Huagang" at its first MUSA developer conference, featuring a 50% increase in computing density compared to the previous generation, supporting full precision calculations from FP4 to FP64, and capable of scaling to over 100,000 nodes in intelligent computing clusters [1] - Shanghai Jiao Tong University's research team has achieved a breakthrough in all-optical computing chips, enabling large-scale semantic media generation models [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about AI-PCB and core computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controlled beneficiary industries, predicting explosive growth in ASIC numbers from major companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft between 2026 and 2027 [2] - The demand for AI copper-clad laminates is strong, with leading manufacturers in mainland China expected to benefit due to slow overseas expansion [2] - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673) reflects the performance of 50 stocks with high liquidity and market capitalization in the ChiNext market, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 71.14% of the index [2]

本周（12.15-12.21）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有42个品种价格上涨，37个品种价格下跌，21个 品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中47%的产品月均价环比上涨，44%的产品月均价环比下跌，9%的产品月均 价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是硝酸（华东地区）硫酸（浙江巨化98%）、原盐（山东海 盐）、双酚A（华东）、TDI（华东）；周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是PVA、NYMEX天然气、LLDPE （余姚7042/吉化）、三氯乙烯（华东）乙二醇。 本周（12.15-12.21）国际油价下跌，WTI原油期货价格收于56.52美元/桶，收盘价周跌幅1.60%；布伦特 原油期货价格收于59.82美元/桶，收盘价周跌幅2.13%。宏观方面，根据21世纪经济报道，在美国政府 结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，11月美国消费者价格指 数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者价格指 数同比上涨2.6%。供应方面，根据EIA数据，截至12月12日当周，美国原油日均产量1,384.3万桶，较前 一周日均产量减少1.0万桶，较去年同 ...