新华财经北京3月31日电（王柘）上周（2025年3月24日至3月28日）债市多头情绪继续修复，收益率曲线整体下移。周初，央行公开市 场净投放操作，呵护跨季资金面，央行预告MLF加量续做并改革中标方式，市场宽松预期在前本周走高并推动债市收益率下降，10年期 国债活跃券收益率较前一周高点回落超过12BP。后半周宽松预期出现反复，利率转为震荡，全周10年期国债活跃券收益率走低3.5BP。 机构对后续降准降息落地时点和债市走向仍存一定分歧。 行情回顾 2025年3月28日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年3月21日分别变 动-3BP、-5.02BP、-4.84BP、-4.19BP、-6.76BP、-3.32BP、-4.25BP、-3BP。 具体来看，周一，央行提前公告次日MLF加量操作，强化市场对货币宽松预期，债市尾盘扩大涨幅，10年期国债活跃券240011收益率下 跌3.25BP至1.80%。周二，公开市场净投放操作推动现券收益率早盘继续走低，午后利率转向上行，240011收益率涨0.6BP至1.806%。周 三，资金面转松，关于货币宽松、大行买债等 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift towards "moderate easing" in monetary policy, suggesting that interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are likely to occur, with a higher probability of a reserve requirement cut in the short term [3][10]. Core Insights - In February 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 1.01 trillion, significantly lower than the expected 1.24 trillion and the previous month's 5.13 trillion, indicating a substantial month-on-month decline [1][7]. - New social financing (社融) totaled 2.23 trillion, which was below expectations but showed a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion, primarily supported by the accelerated issuance of government bonds and special refinancing bonds [10][11]. - The overall structure of financing has deteriorated, with both household and corporate credit weakening, and M1 growth slowing down [2][9]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing - New credit in February was 1.01 trillion, down 440 billion year-on-year and 4.12 trillion month-on-month, indicating a significant drop below seasonal norms [2][7]. - New social financing was 2.23 trillion, up 737.4 billion year-on-year but down 4.82 trillion month-on-month, showing a mixed performance against seasonal expectations [10][11]. Structural Analysis - Household short-term loans decreased by 2.74 trillion, reflecting weak consumption, while medium to long-term loans fell by 1.15 trillion, diverging from real estate sales data [8][9]. - Corporate medium to long-term loans saw a significant decline, attributed to overshooting demand from previous months and slow issuance of special bonds [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report emphasizes that monetary easing remains the overarching direction for 2025, with potential reserve requirement cuts expected within the next 1-2 months [3][10]. - Key indicators to monitor include government bond issuance, the pace of fiscal stimulus, and the actual performance of real estate sales [3][10].

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant volatility on the 25th, characterized by a "roller coaster" trading pattern, indicating a divergence in future expectations among market participants [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the 25th, all maturities of government bond futures opened significantly higher, peaked, then fell to a new low before recovering to near the opening price by midday [2][4]. - The trading volume of major contracts surged, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.69% to a volume of 99,500 contracts, the 10-year contract up by 0.25% to 156,000 contracts, and the 5-year contract increasing by 0.16% to 125,000 contracts [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a new high of 1.779% during the day but later retraced all gains, reflecting market instability [4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The significant increase in trading volume indicates a stark division in expectations regarding future interest rates and macroeconomic conditions, with both bullish and bearish positions being taken [4][6]. - The DR007 (7-day repo rate) rose to 2.21%, while the 10-year government bond yield hovered around 1.76%, indicating a notable inversion that complicates leveraged strategies for bond bulls [6]. - A report from CITIC Securities suggests that if the 10-year yield exceeds the resistance level of 1.65%, it could trigger increased selling pressure as many funds may enter a loss position [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Nearly 40% of fixed-income sell-side analysts have shifted their outlook to bearish, citing that current economic conditions do not support further monetary easing by the central bank [7]. - Analysts believe that the prolonged tightness in funding conditions may lead to a reassessment of the bond market's attractiveness, especially as stock markets show potential for higher returns [9][10]. - Despite the current tightening, some analysts maintain that long-term monetary easing remains a likely scenario, suggesting that the pressure on the bond market may be limited in the near term [10].

涨幅几倍甚至十倍大牛市，基本上是供给收缩（市占率提高）+需求增加＋货币宽松三大因素，如果 再加一个因素，那就是公司变革（国企改革、企业创新等）。 往往是在公司出现业绩严重下滑甚至出现巨亏的时候，股价是最低的。而且所处行业越长时间出现亏 损，供给出清越透彻，股价反弹幅度越高。 这一篇是此前 《牛市操作指南（一）》 、 《牛市操作指（二）：新质生产力，如何压重注？》 的延 续。 （市值风云APP） 我们将以中远海控、紫金矿业、牧原股份、一拖股份、宇通客车、浙能电力、永辉超市为案例进行分 析说明。 供给收缩+需求增加＋货币宽松+公司变革。 作者 | 木盒 编辑 | 小白 ...

我给新关注的读者补补课，这个图的竖轴是利率，数字看最右边，横轴是时间，以年为单位。 每一年都有19个点，这19个点代表了美联储的19个成员的投票，他们是美联储理事会成员+联邦储备银行行长们。投票是不记名的，你们看2024年有一个 人投了最低的4-4.25%这一档，但公众并不知道投这一票的人是谁。 点阵图每年更新四次，3、6、9、12月各一次，根据这份点阵图可以看出2024年底的预期利率平均是4.4%，2025年底是3.4%，2026年底是2.9%，更远的长 期利率也差不多是3%左右的水平。 但是注意，这只代表当下的预期，随着每个月的经济数据更新，委员们的态度变化也会很快，事实上现在就比6月份的那一次很不一样。他们主要看两个 数据，通胀率和就业，既要防止通胀失控，又要防止失业攀升，然后就是左右摇摆找平衡。 如诸位所见，美联储最终选择了降息50个基点。 随后美联储对外发布了最新的利率点阵图，如下： 今天a股先跌后涨，终于迎来了久违的中阳，市场放量超过了6000亿，中位数+2.19%，感觉很久没有吃过这样一顿好的。 很难说 和昨晚美联储的降息没 有关系，但现在 怕就怕明天公布的LPR又降息落空， 到时候 少不得一顿 ...