Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, defending the "wait-and-see" approach to interest rates amid geopolitical tensions and pressure from President Trump for rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump criticized Powell's decision not to cut rates, calling it "stupid" and claiming that high rates cost the U.S. thousands of billions annually, while Europe has already implemented multiple rate cuts [1][2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, acknowledging steady economic expansion and low unemployment, while slightly adjusting its description of the unemployment rate [2] Group 2 - Powell's regulatory stance is under scrutiny, with proposals to eliminate the "supplementary leverage ratio," which could weaken banks' risk resilience but is seen by the Trump administration as an economic stimulus tool [3] - A controversial proposal by Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Fed from paying interest on bank reserves could save the federal government approximately $1.1 trillion over ten years, but economists warn it may destabilize the financial system [3] - The upcoming testimony is viewed as a critical test of the Federal Reserve's independence and policy wisdom, with potential impacts on global markets, including the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming end of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term in June 2024 is creating political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump and Vice President Vance, who are advocating for interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Political Pressure on Powell - President Trump and Vice President Vance have been urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with Trump criticizing Powell's performance and suggesting that the Fed is lagging behind other central banks [2][3]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, leading to annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion, making interest rate cuts an appealing option to alleviate fiscal pressure [2]. Group 2: Succession Candidates - The Trump administration is reportedly considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to influence market expectations before Powell's term ends, with four main candidates being discussed: Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Hassett [4][5]. - Bessent is viewed as a frontrunner due to his close ties to Trump and understanding of his economic agenda, although his close relationship with the White House may compromise the Fed's independence [5][6]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, has a hawkish stance that may conflict with Trump's desire for rate cuts, while Waller is seen as a potential compromise candidate who understands Fed operations but lacks White House favor [6]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The new chairman will face challenges in balancing political pressures for rate cuts with the need to maintain the Fed's credibility, especially in light of rising inflation expectations [6]. - The debate over the next Fed chair underscores the ongoing tension between maintaining the Fed's independence and responding to political demands, which could shape the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1][6].

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's potential early maneuvering regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating that an announcement may come soon despite Jerome Powell's term lasting until May 2026 [1] - Trump may leverage the upcoming vacancy of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in January 2026 to position a successor, reflecting the administration's emphasis on monetary policy influence [1] - The market's focus is expected to shift towards the selection of the next Fed Chair as the "Big Beautiful Plan" is anticipated to pass in mid-July and trade policies become clearer [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank identifies three prominent candidates for the Fed Chair position: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, each with distinct policy inclinations [2] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is viewed as a frontrunner but has a history of hawkish views, criticizing quantitative easing and recent rate cuts [2] - Chris Waller, currently a Fed Governor, has shown a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed could overlook inflation driven by tariffs and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank believes that Trump's call for a significant rate cut indicates a preference for a dovish candidate, with Waller being seen as having a higher chance of success [3] - The report emphasizes that merely having a dovish inclination is insufficient; the new Chair must persuade colleagues to adopt a different policy path, which could be challenging for external candidates with past criticisms of the Fed [3] - Waller's current position as a Fed Governor may provide him with an advantage in navigating the internal dynamics of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] Group 4 - The article warns that regardless of the final candidate, the market may test the independence of the next Fed Chair and the credibility of their commitment to achieving inflation targets [4] - The challenge of maintaining independence could be more pronounced if the candidate comes from within the government, especially given Trump's threats to dismiss Powell and calls for substantial rate cuts amid strong economic resilience and rising inflation pressures [4] - The new Fed Chair will face the critical decision of whether to uphold the Fed's hard-won anti-inflation credibility in the current economic context [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell marks a significant moment in their relationship, with Trump urging for interest rate cuts while Powell emphasizes the Fed's independence in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met for the first time since Trump returned to the White House, discussing economic growth, employment, and inflation [1]. - Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will be based on detailed, objective analysis and will not be influenced by political pressures [1][2]. - The meeting is seen as a potential thawing of the previously tense relationship between Trump and Powell, although some reports suggest it may also represent increased pressure from Trump on the Fed [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2][3]. - Fed officials are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs and policy uncertainty on the economy, as well as persistent inflation levels [3][4]. - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates twice later this year, in September and December [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-30 月末之际 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日早盘持货商在昨日报价基础上低报，主流平水铜升水120元/吨附近成交，随后被压至升水90元/ 吨以后迅速被收货，随后JCC等一货难求，价格再次回到升水120元/吨；均为下月票。升水铜紧俏，近期成交均在 180-200元/吨。非注册成交贴水20元/吨至平水区间，近期到货量不多但下游需求一般。今日为5月最后一个交易日， 企业基本进入关账结算，预计出货方减少，采购需求亦有所走低，小型企业或仍未端午备货，预计今日升水价格 企稳基础上略微走高。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，此前美国国际贸易法院叫停了"解放日" 关税政策；特朗普麾下官员对取得诉讼胜利表现得极具信心，还认为即使败诉也能另寻他法征收关税，同时关税 谈判也将继续推进，未来几周会有三份协议。而美国财长贝森特表示，过去48小时贸易伙伴的态度没有任何变化。 此外，特朗普新上任以来首次约见鲍威尔，特朗普要求其降息，鲍威尔则坚持货币政策独立性。 矿端方面，外电5月28日消息，Jubilee ...

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：5月29日稍早，美国总统特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔的确在白宫会面。 特朗普告诉鲍威尔，他犯了一个错，"不降息是错误的"。 ...

这位BIS总经理的警告正值美国、日本、欧州债券收益率持续攀升之际——市场普遍预期这些政府将通 过扩大债务融资来增加支出。 卡斯滕斯强调，若政府债务违约，可能引发全球金融体系动荡并威胁货币稳定，因为央行可能被迫为政 府债务融资，导致"财政支配货币政策"的困局。"其后果将是通胀攀升与汇率急剧贬值。基于这些风 险，财政当局遏制公共债务攀升已刻不容缓。" 国际清算银行（BIS）总经理卡斯滕斯（Agustin Carstens）周二在日本央行主办的东京会议上发出严厉 警告：随着利率攀升导致部分国家财政路径不可持续，全球各国政府必须遏制公共债务的"无休止"增 长。 卡斯滕斯指出，全球金融危机后的长期低利率环境曾让巨额赤字和高负债显得"可以承受"，使得财政当 局能够回避削减开支或增税等艰难抉择。然而，"超低利率时代已经结束。在公众对政府承诺的信任开 始动摇之前，财政当局整顿财政的窗口期非常短暂。" 他警告称，"市场已逐渐意识到，某些财政路径根本不可持续。面对巨大的财政失衡，金融市场可能突 然失稳。"因此，他强调，"多数经济体必须立即启动财政整顿，敷衍应对已行不通。" 作为"央行的央行"，BIS致力于促进各国央行间货币与财政 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended the Fed's crisis response during the pandemic and emphasized the importance of higher education in his speech at Princeton University [1][3] - Powell highlighted the Fed's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a multi-trillion dollar asset purchase program to maintain low interest rates and prevent a severe global economic downturn [3][4] - The speech served as a response to the Trump administration's threats against Ivy League schools, with Powell calling higher education a "national asset" and urging graduates to uphold integrity [4] Group 2 - A recent Supreme Court ruling provided legal backing for the Fed's independence, stating that Fed board members are protected from arbitrary dismissal by the President, which supports Powell against ongoing attacks from Trump [4][6] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive month, with Powell indicating that uncertainties from the trade war are a key factor in decision-making [6] - Powell's position appears stable in the short term despite political pressures, as the Supreme Court ruling has increased the political cost of any potential dismissal, highlighting the delicate balance between monetary policy and political interference [6]

作 者丨胡慧茵 吴斌 编 辑丨李莹亮 和佳 江佩佩 周一，受中美经贸会谈利好消息提振，美股开盘全线大涨。截至美股最新收盘，美股三大指 数 均 大 幅 收 涨 ， 纳 指 涨 4 . 3 5% ， 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 涨 3 . 2 6% ， 均 创 3 月 3 日 以 来 收 盘 新 高 ； 道 指 涨 11 6 0 . 7 2点，涨幅2 . 8 1%，创3月2 7日以来收盘新高。 截至最新美股收盘，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊涨超8%，Me t a涨超7%，苹果、特斯拉涨 超6%，英伟达涨逾5%，谷歌、英特尔涨逾3%，微软涨超2%；奈飞跌超2%。 纳斯达克中国 金 龙 指 数 大 幅 收 涨 5 . 4% ， 创 4 月 4 日 以 来 新 高 ， 万 得 中 概 科 技 龙 头 指 数 （ DRAG ） 上 涨 4 . 2 9% 。 中 概 股 普 涨 ， 文 远 知 行 涨 超 2 7% ， 小 马 智 行 涨 近 1 2% ， 小 鹏 汽 车 、 哔 哩 哔 哩 涨 近 8%，京东、拼多多、理想汽车涨逾6%，蔚来、阿里巴巴、百度涨超5%。 W 万得美国科技七巨头指数[MAGS] 50359.21 ...

据第一财经报道，美债是支撑美国政府和经济的重要根基，其重要性已经显露。彼时，美国国债遭遇大幅抛售——不少 市场人士就预判，此次美股无法做到的事情，美债市场也许能做到，即美债收益率的大幅持续攀升会令特朗普政府在对 等关税政策上"眨眼"。市场人士强调，此次导致美债和美元指数下跌的原因更加结构性、系统性。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 中辉期货资管部投资经理王维芒表示，尽管特朗普暂缓对部分国家加征关税，但政策的不确定性加剧了市场对美国经济 衰退和通胀反弹的预期，削弱了美债的避险属性。另外，对冲基金通过高杠杆做多美债现券、做空期货，依赖低波动率 环境套利。特朗普关税政策引发市场剧烈波动，波动率指数飙升至年内高点，导致基差交易爆仓，基金被迫抛售现券以 补充保证金。当前基差交易规模已达1万亿美元，平仓压力导致长债收益率飙升。与美债收益率关系密切的降息进程，近 期变数颇多。 近年来，美国政府对美联储政策的干预逐渐增强。特朗普在二次执政期间，已多次对美联储的决策表达不满并施加压 力，这使得外界对美联储能否独立、科学地制定货币政策产生了担忧。今年2月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，宣称"掌 握重大行政权力的官员必须接受民选总统的监督" ...