欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：自夏季以来，贸易政策不确定性一直引起关注。 ...

百事下调全年利润展望 因贸易政策不确定性及消费者情绪恶化 金十数据4月24日讯，百事(PEP.O)下调了全年利润展望，在不可预测的美国贸易政策和日益恶化的消费 者情绪的影响下，公司零食和软饮料的需求正在摇摆不定。百事的消费品种类繁多，因此可以一窥特朗 普执政初期的消费者状况。百事目前预计今年的固定汇率每股收益将与去年持平，而此前的预期为中个 位数增长。公司首席执行官Ramon Laguarta说："未来预计将出现更多的波动和不确定性，尤其是与全 球贸易发展相关的波动和不确定性。" ...

IMF多时来首次强调，在全球经济增长动力已然冷却的背景下，各国国内失衡和政策差异，导致全球失衡， 也给全球经济前景酝酿了一些潜在脆弱性。 在美东时间4月22日发布的2025年4月《世界经济展望报告》（WEO）中，鉴于贸易政策的不确定性，国际货 币基金组织（IMF）久违地再次给出多种情境假设。第一种是基于截至4月4日公布的关税措施的参考预测 （reference forecast）。第二种是基于4月2日对等关税宣布前的预测（截止日期为3月下旬）。第三种是基于4 月9日后，特朗普宣布部分关税暂缓和豁免措施后的预测。 在最基本的参考预测情境下，贸易政策的不确定性预计将持续到2025年和2026年。短期内，根据参考预测， 全球经济增长预计将从2024年的3.3%降至2025年的2.8%，然后在2026年恢复到3%。这比2025年1月WEO的 预测分别低0.5个百分点（2025年）和0.3个百分点（2026年），几乎所有国家经济增速预测都被下调。IMF 称，这在很大程度上反映了新贸易措施的直接影响，以及各国贸易联系溢出效应、不确定性加剧和情绪恶化 产生的间接影响。 | | | | | Difference from J ...

期货研究报告|外汇周报 2025-04-20 美元失锚，资金转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 联系人 朱思谋 0755-23887993 zhusimou@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03142856 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 市场分析 美元兑人民币 日元：日元整体维持强势，美元兑日元一度跌破 142 关口，创下去年 9 月以来新低。 日本央行行长植田和男重申加息倾向，称若潜在通胀持续回升，将考虑继续加息，但 同时强调美国关税的不确定性可能对日本经济造成压力，政策调整将更具审慎性。美 人民币表现相对稳健，在美元走弱的背景下，美元兑人民币高位回落至 7.30 附近。尽 管中美利差仍处于倒挂状态，对人民币上行构成一定约束，但一季度中国出口同比增 长 6.9%、3 月出口同比增速更是达到 12%以上，显示外需韧性仍在，为人民币 ...

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 was $1.58, up 26% year-over-year on a reported basis and up 22% excluding notable items [10] - Total revenue reached $4.8 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year, with expenses controlled at a 2% increase [11][25] - Pre-tax margin improved to 32% and return on tangible common equity rose to 24% [12][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Security services reported total revenue of $2.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year, with investment services fees increasing by 4% [34] - Market and wealth services segment revenue was $1.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with net new assets of $11 billion in the quarter [37] - Investment and wealth management segment revenue decreased to $779 million, down 8% year-over-year, with a pre-tax income drop of 41% [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Firm-wide assets under custody and administration (AUCA) reached $53.1 trillion, up 9% year-over-year [26] - Assets under management (AUM) remained flat at $2 trillion year-over-year, with $18 billion in net outflows [41] - Foreign exchange revenue increased by 3% year-over-year, driven by higher spreads due to increased volatility [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming into a more platforms-oriented organization, enhancing client experience and operational agility [13][23] - The first quarter marked the anniversary of the transition to the new operating model, with over half of the company now working under this model [14] - The company is actively pursuing innovation in areas such as AI, with over 40 AI solutions deployed and a partnership with OpenAI [20][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a significant reversal in market sentiment due to trade and fiscal policy uncertainties, leading to elevated risks in the near and medium term [7][9] - Despite the uncertain environment, the company is well-positioned with a strong balance sheet and operational resilience [10][23] - The outlook for the operating environment remains uncertain, with management prepared for various macroeconomic scenarios [23][43] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders, representing a 95% total payout ratio year-to-date [31] - The Tier 1 leverage ratio for the quarter was 6.2%, with a CET1 ratio of 11.5% [30][31] - The company is maintaining a conservative approach to capital management, considering macroeconomic factors [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on deposit stability and NII generation - Management indicated that Q1 deposit levels were in line with expectations, with a slight increase in deposits due to market volatility, but not as significant as in previous crises [50][52] Question: Strategic opportunities for M&A - Management is open to exploring inorganic growth opportunities that align with their strategic priorities, emphasizing the importance of cultural fit and financial returns [64][66] Question: Impact of macro environment on client activity - Management noted that while clients are cautious, the breadth of their platforms provides a competitive advantage, allowing them to capture opportunities even in turbulent times [120][124] Question: Treasury market functioning and Fed intervention - Management reported that the treasury market is functioning well, with high volumes, although liquidity has reduced, leading to wider bid-offer spreads [98][101] Question: Digital assets and stablecoin legislation - Management views digital assets as a long-term play, with stablecoin legislation seen as a positive development for future growth, although not expected to significantly impact near-term revenues [105][111]

Group 1 - Tencent announced that its mobile game "Xianjian Qixia Chuan Online" will cease operations on June 2, after nearly 8 years since its public launch on April 26, 2017 [1] - The game stopped recharge and registration functions on March 31, and users who purchased products before that date can claim compensation during the event period [1] - This decision may affect investors' perception of Tencent's gaming business sustainability, although compensation measures could alleviate concerns about user attrition [1] Group 2 - Asobo Studio released a "Sim Update 2" for "Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024," introducing a "gaze point rendering" feature that reduces GPU load and improves frame rates by focusing rendering on the user's gaze [2] - The update enhances the VR experience and indicates the company's commitment to technological innovation, potentially boosting market confidence in its growth prospects [2] - This development positively impacts the gaming software and VR device sectors, contributing to a favorable sentiment towards technological advancements in the industry [2] Group 3 - Nintendo announced a delay in the pre-order of Switch 2 in the U.S. due to the assessment of potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies and changing market conditions [3] - The release date for Switch 2 remains unchanged at June 5, with the multilingual version priced at 69,980 yen (approximately 3,462 RMB) [3] - This cautious approach may raise market concerns regarding Nintendo's supply chain and cost structure, potentially affecting the video game hardware sector and investor expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on the bond market, highlighting increased uncertainty and its effects on investment decisions and bond yields [3][7][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Market Impact - On March 4, the U.S. announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were quickly reversed for most goods two days later, leading to heightened uncertainty in trade policy [3]. - A new Bloomberg Economic Research Index, the Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU), was developed to track this uncertainty, which surged to levels not seen during the peak of trade tensions in Trump's first term [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress investment and affect economic output, contributing to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [7]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yields - From November 2023 to early March 2024, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 16 basis points, with approximately 7 basis points attributed directly to tariff uncertainty [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain interest rates during its March meeting, with core PCE inflation rising to an annualized rate of 4.5% and income growth accelerating by 0.8% month-on-month, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [7]. Group 3: Chinese Bond Market Trends - In March, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.93%, the highest since December of the previous year, before retreating to 1.8% later in the month [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.36% due to better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, impacting related sectors in the A-share market [10]. Group 4: Dim Sum Bond Market - The Dim Sum bond market has expanded significantly, with outstanding issuance surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan as of March 2025, and 2024 issuance reaching 896 billion yuan, a 120% increase from 2023 [11]. - High-rated bonds now account for 75% of the market, with issuers from the renewable energy and digital economy sectors emerging, such as BYD and SenseTime [11]. - The Bloomberg Offshore RMB Index has seen its market value more than double since the end of 2021, currently standing at 467 billion yuan [11]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The yield spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds has narrowed to -237 basis points, reducing the incentive to chase dollar-denominated assets and alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [13]. - The credit spread of Dim Sum bonds is 78 basis points higher than that of domestic high-liquidity credit bonds, with a low default rate of 0.15% [13].

美国股市周五大幅下跌，投资者对贸易政策前景的不确定性加剧，以及通胀前景的进一步恶化，共同压垮市场情绪。美股三大股指全线走低，科技股首当 其冲，恐慌指数VIX飙升，反映出市场的极度紧张与不安。 道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌715.80点，跌幅1.69%，报41,583.90点；标普500指数下挫1.97%，报5,580.94点，创下六周内第五周下跌；纳斯达克综 合指数更是暴跌2.7%，报17,322.99点。以科技股为主的纳指受打击最为严重，主要受到大型科技公司股价集体回落的影响。 过去数周，通胀回升和政策不确定性仍持续困扰市场。美联储在3月议息会议上维持利率不变，但强调对通胀的警惕态度，让市场对年内降息的时间点产 生疑问。与此同时，白宫的贸易政策转向保护主义，使得企业盈利面临更多挑战。 周五公布的多项关键经济数据也加剧了市场的紧张情绪。密歇根大学3月消费者信心终值显示，美国民众对长期通胀的预期升至1993年以来的最高水 平。这一变化表明，尽管美联储在过去一年持续加息，通胀预期仍未完全得到控制。 此外，德国DAX指数收于22461.52点，下跌0.96%， 法国CAC40指数收于7916.08点，下跌0.93%。 ...