Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop on October 10, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and XPeng all declining by over 7% [3] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [2] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year improved, but expectations for future personal finances and current purchasing conditions for durable goods declined [2] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [2] International Markets - European stock markets also saw declines, with the FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the CAC 40 and MIB indices down over 1% [6] - The Hang Seng Index futures dropped nearly 4% [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell sharply, with U.S. crude down over 3% and Brent crude down nearly 3% [7] - In contrast, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [7] Trade Relations - China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on its maritime and shipbuilding industries, set to take effect on October 14, in response to U.S. unilateral actions perceived as discriminatory [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with gold futures prices recently surpassing $4000 per ounce, followed by a significant drop, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and future price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The expectation of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential delays in interest rate cuts, is putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - Strong economic data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for higher interest rates, which negatively impacts gold as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculative Positions - There is a crowded speculative long position in gold, with a significant number of investors betting on rising prices, which could lead to a sharp sell-off if prices fail to maintain upward momentum [6][7]. - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, is further pressuring gold prices as it is priced in dollars [6][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Demand Trends - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, have previously driven gold prices higher, but the market is now adjusting to these risks as they have not escalated into full-scale wars [8][9]. - Central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, have been a significant support for gold prices, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - A shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, such as equities, is leading to reduced demand for gold, which is traditionally viewed as a defensive investment [16][19]. - The rise of technology stocks and the overall bullish sentiment in the stock market are attracting capital away from gold [19]. Group 5: Price Volatility and Technical Indicators - The gold market is currently experiencing high volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential need for price corrections after reaching overbought levels [12][17]. - Key resistance levels have been tested multiple times without success, indicating a potential for further downward adjustments in gold prices [12][17]. Group 6: Short-term Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, gold is likely to enter a period of wide-ranging adjustments, with potential price movements down to the $2200–$2350 per ounce range [21]. - For short-term traders, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, while long-term investors may find opportunities to accumulate positions during price corrections [24].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened slightly higher but then experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, S&P 500 down 1.32%, and Nasdaq down 1.76% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Chip stocks led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 4% in the morning session. AMD fell over 7%, Micron Technology dropped about 6%, and TSMC's U.S. shares fell about 4% [2]. - Among the tech giants, Tesla fell over 4%, Nvidia dropped over 3%, and Apple decreased by over 2% [2]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 3.8%, with several popular Chinese stocks declining significantly [2][3]. Commodity Prices - International oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil dropping over 3% to $59.34 per barrel, marking the lowest level since early May. Brent crude oil also fell by 3% to $63.14 per barrel [5][6]. - Spot gold prices increased slightly, currently at $4010.44 per ounce, with a rise of 0.86% [6]. Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1. The index reflects mixed views on personal financial situations and future business conditions [6][7]. - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [7].

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud down over 9%, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and Xpeng down over 7%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and JD down over 6% [1] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, compared to an estimate of 54.2 and a previous value of 55.1 [1] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year improved, but expectations for future personal finances and evaluations of current durable goods purchasing conditions declined, leading to a mixed outlook [1] - Inflation expectations for the next year decreased slightly from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [1] International Market Reactions - The FTSE A50 index futures dropped over 3% [2] - The Hang Seng Index futures saw a decline of nearly 4% [3] - European stock markets also fell, with the UK FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the French CAC40 and Italian MIB indices down over 1% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude oil down over 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 3% [4] - In contrast, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [4]

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud down over 9%, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and Xpeng down over 7%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and JD down over 6% [2][3] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [2] - Current personal financial conditions and future business environment perceptions improved, but expectations for future personal finances and evaluations of current durable goods purchasing conditions declined, leading to a net neutral effect [2] - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [3] International Markets - The FTSE A50 index futures dropped over 3%, and the Hang Seng Index futures fell nearly 4% [4][6] - European stock markets also declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the French CAC40 and Italian MIB indices down over 1% [8] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI crude oil down over 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 3% [9] - Conversely, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [9] Trade Relations - In response to U.S. restrictions on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, China announced countermeasures, including special port fees for U.S.-flagged vessels, effective October 14 [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.09% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.01%, and France's CAC40 remaining unchanged [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.17% to $60.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.09% to $64.51 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Tesla's wholesale sales in China rebounded in September, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 90,812 vehicles, ending a two-month decline [8] - Google has been designated as the first company with "strategic market status" in the UK, leading to stricter scrutiny of its online search and advertising business by the Competition and Markets Authority [8] - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulator for failing to legally report its acquisition of Autotalks, causing its stock to drop nearly 2% in pre-market trading [8] - Applied Digital reported a significant revenue increase of 84% year-on-year in Q1, driven by surging demand for data center services to support generative AI applications, with revenue reaching $64.2 million [10] - Stellantis announced a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle deliveries in Q3, attributed to new model launches and strong demand in North America, with deliveries in the region rising by 35% [11] Economic Data and Events - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to be released on October 15, with the Labor Statistics Bureau recalling employees to ensure timely publication [6] - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials may influence market sentiment and economic outlook [12]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 futures by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.09% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.01%, and France's CAC40 remaining unchanged [2][3] - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1.17% to $60.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.09% to $64.51 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Tesla's wholesale sales in China rebounded in September, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 90,812 vehicles, ending a two-month decline [8] - Google has been designated as the first company with "strategic market status" in the UK, leading to stricter scrutiny of its online search and advertising business by the Competition and Markets Authority [9] - Qualcomm is under investigation for failing to legally report its acquisition of Autotalks, causing its stock to drop nearly 2% in pre-market trading [9] - Applied Digital reported a significant revenue increase of 84% year-on-year in Q1, driven by surging demand for data center services to support generative AI applications [10] - Stellantis announced a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle deliveries in Q3, attributed to new model launches and strong demand in North America [11] Economic Insights - Nuveen Asset Management's CIO suggests that robust corporate earnings, particularly from large tech companies, will likely sustain the US stock market's upward trend into year-end [5] - A report from the Boston Fed indicates rising inflation expectations pose a greater risk to the Fed's ability to control prices, with consumer expectations for one-year inflation increasing [6] - The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is anticipated to occur on schedule, despite the federal government shutdown [6]

Core Insights - The Boston Federal Reserve's research report indicates that the sharp rise in U.S. household inflation expectations poses a greater risk to the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target compared to previous instances [1] - Unlike during the pandemic, the current rise in inflation expectations is not primarily driven by food and energy prices, significantly increasing the likelihood of sustained inflation expectations above policy targets [1] Group 1 - The report, authored by Boston Fed researchers Philippe Andrade and Michael Wicklein, analyzes data from the University of Michigan's consumer survey [1] - Current inflation expectations are more similar to the situation in the late 1970s, where inflation rates surged but the correlation between expected and actual price changes was weak, leading the Fed to initiate aggressive rate hikes to restore credibility [1] - The report highlights that the inflation expectation surge in the early 1970s and during the pandemic was largely explained by sharp increases in energy and food prices, but the current rise in expectations is not closely tied to price increases [1] Group 2 - Researchers warn that the inability to explain the rise in expectations through short-term price fluctuations suggests a significant increase in the risk of inflation expectations becoming "unanchored," similar to the late 1970s [1] - However, the report emphasizes that, at present, these risks remain within a controllable range [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold prices recently reaching record highs [1][3][5] - On October 9, gold prices fluctuated dramatically, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4078 before dropping to below $3958, reflecting market reactions to U.S. government budget negotiations and economic data delays [3][4] - The demand for gold as a defensive asset has surged due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with predictions suggesting gold prices could rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][6] Group 2 - Silver prices have followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures peaking at nearly $50 before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting its sensitivity to dollar movements [6][8] - The industrial demand for silver is increasing, particularly in sectors like electronics and renewable energy, which is expected to support its price [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver has potential for upward movement, its smaller market size compared to gold makes it more susceptible to volatility, making gold a more stable investment option [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, leading to a pull - back in gold prices due to profit - taking. Although the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to the presence of risk - aversion sentiment and easing expectations, short - term profit - taking after a significant rise may cause gold prices to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly widened to - 8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: After overseas silver hit a record high and fell back, profit - taking drove silver prices down as silver reached an important target level. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to - 175 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment is cautious. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be short - term fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, causing gold prices to fall due to profit - taking. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX gold futures fell 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. Gold futures warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Data that may be released: China's aggregate financing to the real economy from January to September and new RMB loans. - Speeches and events: At 09:40, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will discuss the US economy and science and technology at an event with Silicon Valley executives; the EU finance ministers will hold a meeting (time to be determined); at 15:40, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva will speak; at 17:00, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced; at 20:30, Canada's employment report for September (including employment numbers and unemployment rate) will be released; at 21:45, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar; at 22:00, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October in the US will be released; at 01:00 the next day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a 2025 FOMC voter) will participate in a fireside chat related to the US economy and FOMC monetary policy; at 02:00 the next day, the US government budget for September will be released [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures; warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing [5]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing [6].