Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut remains low, amidst mixed opinions on the extent of the cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut stands at 4.1% according to CME FedWatch [1]. - By October, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is projected to reach 73.8%, indicating strong market expectations for continued easing [1]. - The recent rise in unemployment to 4.3% and downward revisions in job growth forecasts suggest a weakening labor market, which may influence the Fed's decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that a 25 basis point cut would signal easing without inducing panic about a recession, while a 50 basis point cut could be interpreted as a reaction to economic fears [2][4]. - The current economic environment is characterized as "preventive rate cuts" rather than "rescue rate cuts," as there is no clear recession or severe external shocks [2]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to influence global financial markets, with potential capital inflows into emerging markets as the dollar weakens and global liquidity improves [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that during previous easing cycles, gold prices tend to rise significantly, with an 83% success rate in the first 10 trading days post-cut [6]. Group 4: Chinese Market Implications - The Fed's rate cut may trigger a wave of rate cuts globally, including in China, where there is still some room for monetary easing [8]. - The Chinese bond market may attract foreign investment due to reduced pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, particularly in government and policy bank bonds [9]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with limited risks of rapid appreciation or depreciation, supported by internal economic stability measures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the high market expectations for a rate cut, with a strong focus on the debate over the extent of the cut, whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut stands at 4.1% according to CME FedWatch [1]. - Market expectations indicate a 73.8% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [1]. - The article highlights the political pressure from President Trump for a more aggressive rate cut, adding uncertainty to the Fed's decision [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Analysis - Recent economic data shows a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and a downward revision of 911,000 in projected non-farm jobs for 2024-2025, indicating a weak labor market [3]. - Inflation remains a concern, with August CPI at 2.9% and core CPI at 3.1%, still above the Fed's 2% target, although inflationary pressures are easing [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the anticipation of a rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.87 basis points to 4.0356% [5]. - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX futures reaching a high of $3728.4 per ounce, and London spot gold hitting a record $3690 per ounce [5]. - Historical data suggests that during previous rate cut cycles, U.S. equities, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors, tend to perform well [5][9]. Group 4: Emerging Markets and Currency Implications - Emerging markets are expected to see capital inflows as a result of a weaker dollar and improved global liquidity, particularly benefiting Asian stocks and sovereign debt [6][8]. - The article notes that the Chinese central bank may have limited room for rate cuts but could still implement measures like lowering LPR and MLF rates to support the A-share market [8]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with potential for appreciation due to the anticipated decline in the dollar index and supportive domestic policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point "preventive rate cut" in September [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Rate Cuts - Historical analysis shows that "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" have different impacts on major asset prices [3][4]. - Following preventive rate cuts, A-shares benefit from liquidity easing and improved risk appetite, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), food and beverage, social services, beauty care, and biomedicine [4][8]. - In contrast, during recessionary rate cuts, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to decline due to global economic downturns, with defensive assets like non-bank financials, banks, and cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals and chemicals performing better [4][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance Analysis - Under preventive rate cuts, various sectors show significant average price changes: - Technology sector (Electronics) sees an average increase of 19.07% over 10 days, 35.64% over 30 days, and 33.10% over 60 days [8]. - Consumer sectors (Food & Beverage) experience increases of 16.14%, 22.26%, and 19.22% respectively [8]. - For recessionary rate cuts, sectors like non-essential consumer goods and technology also perform well, but defensive sectors like energy and telecommunications gain prominence [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is expected to respond positively to preventive rate cuts, with fundamentals driving overall market performance [9]. - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are influenced by the same dynamics, with preventive cuts initially suppressing the dollar but later leading to an upward trend as fundamentals improve [11][14]. - Gold prices may initially rise due to liquidity easing but could decline as economic expectations improve and the dollar strengthens [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, as market anticipations suggest a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve has been slow to react, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17-18 is likely to confirm the start of a rate cut cycle, with 95% of market participants expecting a 25 basis point "preventive cut" [3][5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, with probabilities for future meetings showing a gradual expectation of further cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's actions will differ based on the nature of the cuts; a 25 basis point cut is seen as preventive, while a 50 basis point cut would indicate a recessionary response [6][7]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous rate cut cycles, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reacted differently based on whether the cuts were preventive or recessionary [7]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - Regardless of the type of rate cut, both preventive and recessionary cuts are favorable for gold, with the price of gold approaching $3,700 per ounce as the dollar index falls below 97 [9]. - The current trends indicate a continuation of rising gold prices and falling dollar values, reflecting market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [9].

北京时间9月18日凌晨，全球金融市场将迎来本月重磅事件——美联储议息会议决议公布。在近期美国 就业数据疲软、通胀压力缓和的背景下，市场普遍预期美联储此次会议将开启新一轮降息周期，但就降 息幅度仍存意见分歧。 据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）"美联储观察"，美联储本次会议降息25个基点的概率高达95.9%，而降息 50个基点的概率仅为4.1%。市场同时预期，到10月份累计降息50个基点的概率达到73.8%，显示出市场 对持续宽松的强烈预期。 但值得注意的是，美国总统特朗普近日连续在社交平台发声，施压美联储应"大幅快速降息"，甚至明确 要求幅度应"超出预期"，这些言论为该次会议增添了更多政治不确定性。 同时，英国央行、日本央行和加拿大央行等全球主要央行也将在本周陆续公布利率决议，"超级央行 周"的整体决策将共同塑造未来数月全球金融市场的走向。 放眼未来，美联储的决策将对全球金融市场产生怎样的连锁反应？国内股、债、汇等资产价格将如何变 动？全球资产配置格局会否发生重大调整？ 25基点还是50基点 在维持关键利率稳定9个月后，市场观点普遍认为，9月美联储降息"板上钉钉"。但围绕降息幅度的争论 却始终激烈：是谨慎的25个基 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a significant interest rate cut, with a probability exceeding 90% for a 25 basis point reduction and a potential total of three cuts within the year [1][2] - Current economic indicators show a "soft landing" with an unemployment rate of 4.3% and a low non-farm payroll increase of only 22,000 jobs, alongside a manageable inflation rate of 2.9% year-on-year [2][4] - The combination of cooling employment and controllable inflation allows the Fed to adjust its policy without triggering a recession, marking a shift towards "preventive rate cuts" aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are becoming attractive due to their lower valuations compared to U.S. stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 15 times versus the S&P 500's 30 times [5][6] - Gold has seen a nearly 40% increase in price this year, surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by lower holding costs due to rate cuts and increased demand from global central banks amid rising geopolitical risks [7][9] - The U.S. dollar may weaken in the short term due to rate cuts, but strong economic resilience in the U.S. could benefit tech giants like Apple and Microsoft from lower financing costs [9] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a "dynamic observation and flexible allocation" mindset, focusing on policy signals while avoiding emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations [9][10] - Suggested investment strategies include diversifying into low-correlation assets such as technology stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares, short-duration U.S. Treasuries, high-rated corporate bonds, and alternative assets like gold ETFs and commodity funds [10][11] - Historical data indicates that investors holding assets for over six months during a rate cut cycle tend to smooth out short-term volatility, as seen in the 18% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index within six months following the 2019 rate cuts [11]

Group 1 - The market has strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with a 92% probability for a 25 basis point cut and 8% for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 has raised questions about the potential impact of a rate cut on the U.S. stock market and whether it would boost U.S. equities or accelerate capital flows to other global markets [1][2] Group 2 - There are two types of interest rate cuts: preventive cuts, which are moderate measures taken to avert potential economic risks, and crisis cuts, which are aggressive actions taken during severe economic downturns [2] - Historical analysis shows that preventive cuts generally have a positive effect on the U.S. stock market, while crisis cuts often fail to prevent market declines due to existing economic challenges [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, which is lower than the previous quarter's 3.1% [10] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the upcoming preventive rate cuts [10][11] Group 4 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a total of 100 basis points cut over three months [11] - The market's reaction has been characterized by volatility, with a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, reflecting concerns over inflation and economic stability [11][16] Group 5 - There has been a notable outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily reallocating to safer assets like bonds and money markets [17][21] - Despite the outflow, the U.S. stock market remains dominant in global asset allocation, with a significant portion of funds still allocated to U.S. equities [21][22] Group 6 - The potential for a systemic shift in capital from U.S. to global markets is limited, as the outflows are more about risk management rather than a loss of confidence in U.S. equities [21][22] - Future capital flows will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the economic landscape, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach maintaining moderate cuts or an aggressive strategy under political pressure [23][24]

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, influenced by factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the weakening dollar index, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the seasonal characteristics of the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a short - term strong or oscillating upward trend, but each metal has its own influencing factors and characteristics [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated upward, with LME copper rising 1.24% to $10189/ton and SHFE copper settling at 81380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [2]. - Supply: Overseas copper mines face certain disruptions, and domestic supply surplus pressure is not significant [2]. - Demand: Downstream procurement sentiment weakened, and the traditional peak season is ongoing [2]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 10050 - 10300 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with LME aluminum rising 0.13% to $2704/ton and SHFE aluminum settling at 21060 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased [4]. - Supply: Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Demand: Downstream is in the traditional peak season, and aluminum exports are resilient [4]. - Price Outlook: Expected to continue to strengthen, with the SHFE aluminum main contract running in the range of 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2660 - 2730 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices broke through the oscillation range and trended upward. SHFE lead index rose 0.76% to 17173 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2014/ton [6]. - Supply: Lead concentrate inventory accumulates slowly, and the supply of raw materials remains tight [6]. - Demand: Downstream battery inventory decreased, and the operating rate improved marginally [6]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index fell slightly by 0.01% to 22316 yuan/ton, while LME zinc 3S rose to $2960/ton. Domestic social inventory increased [7][8]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the processing fee showed differentiation [8]. - Demand: The industry data is strengthening marginally [9]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly, and demand improved marginally [10]. - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the output of domestic refined tin is expected to decline by 29.89% in September [10]. - Demand: New energy and AI sectors are booming, and traditional consumption is gradually improving [10]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated, and the spot market transaction was not significantly improved [11]. - Supply: The supply of nickel iron increased limitedly, and the cost of refined nickel was under pressure [11]. - Demand: The demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills is expected to increase [11]. - Price Outlook: In the short term, the price may decline further, but in the long term, it is supported by policies and has limited downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The demand expectation is optimistic, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.69% to 2935 yuan/ton. The supply is in an over - capacity pattern, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.93% to 13070 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased. The raw material price increased, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [17][18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.48% to 20545 yuan/ton, and inventory increased slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high, with the AD2511 contract running in the range of 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20].

Group 1: U.S. Rate Cut Cycles - The report reviews the impact of the last four U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut cycles on the Chinese economy and A-share indices since 2005[1] - The 2007-2008 cycle saw a total cut of 500 basis points (bps), with the Fed rate dropping from 5.25% to 0.25%[8] - In the 2019 cycle, the Fed cut rates by 75 bps from 2.50% to 1.75% amid trade tensions and economic slowdown[8] - The 2020 cycle involved a total cut of 150 bps, bringing rates down to 0%-0.25% due to the COVID-19 pandemic[8] - The upcoming 2024 cycle is projected to involve a 100 bps cut, starting from a range of 5.25%-5.50%[8] Group 2: Market Performance During Rate Cuts - During the 2007-2009 cycle, major A-share indices experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by approximately 40%[24] - In contrast, during the 2019 rate cut, the ChiNext Index rose by 11.30%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[30] - The 2020 cycle saw the ChiNext Index increase by 27.24%, outperforming other indices due to strong growth in high-demand sectors[36] - The 2024 cycle is expected to provide liquidity support, with the ChiNext Index projected to rise by 20.84% during the cut period[42] Group 3: Economic Context and Policy Responses - Rate cuts are typically initiated in response to economic slowdowns or recession signals, with the severity of the recession influencing market reactions[3] - The Chinese government responded to the 2008 financial crisis with a 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, which included significant infrastructure investments[21] - In 2019, the People's Bank of China implemented a series of targeted monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to support economic stability[27] - The 2024 rate cut is expected to be accompanied by domestic policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth and supporting the stock market[42]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend, particularly in lead futures, which closed at 17,160.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase. This movement is influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics in the lead market [1]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. Labor Department reported only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, and wage growth has slowed. This data has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to increased market liquidity expectations [1]. Supply Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the processing fees for lead concentrate have been lowered again due to stable earnings from primary lead by-products and strong willingness to operate. However, the supply of lead concentrate remains tight. In the recycled lead sector, most companies are still operating at a loss, facing raw material shortages and maintaining low operating rates [1]. Demand Insights - Newhu Futures noted that the operating rate of lead-acid batteries remained stable compared to the previous week, with average orders during the back-to-school season. However, export orders for lead-acid batteries have declined due to the implementation of tariff sanctions in the Middle East [1]. Market Outlook - Wuzhong Futures indicated that the weak labor market data from the U.S. has raised concerns about recessionary rate cuts. Following the recent CPI data, which slightly exceeded expectations, the market anticipates three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the remaining meetings of the year. This has led to a renewed focus on preemptive rate cuts, strengthening both precious and non-ferrous metals. The marginally improving industrial data, combined with a strong market atmosphere, suggests that lead prices may break through their current range and are expected to trend stronger in the short term [1].