文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第393期直播回放】 有朋 友问，中证价值指数，历史表现如何？ 当前估值如何，适合投资吗？有哪些对应的指数基金可以选择呢？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0701 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 A股常见的指数，主要分为四类。 第一类是宽基指数。 通常是按照上市公司的市值规模来选股的，会包含各个行业的股票，覆盖范围很"宽"。 第二类是策略指数。 通常是在宽基指数的基础上，用了某一种投资策略，覆盖的行业也会比较广泛。 策略指数丰富了我们投资的选项，满足了很多投资者个性化的需求。 第三类是行业指数。 也就是仅覆盖了某个行业的股票，例如消费、医药、金融等。最常见的行业指数，是11个一级行业。 每个一级行业，其实都是社会不可或缺的一部分，长期也是跟着社会发展的。 第四类是主题指数。 所包含的股票，跟某个主题密切相关，例如科技、新能源、人工智能等。 主题指数，通常会横跨多个行业，但达不到宽基指数的行业覆盖程度。 2 . 常见策略指数 1 . A股 常 ...

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent filling rights market is the optimistic expectations regarding the future performance of the underlying companies [1] - Filling rights refer to the process where a stock price rises to fill the gap after ex-rights and ex-dividend [1] - Companies with good development prospects, stable profitability, and sustainable growth potential tend to receive higher valuations from the market [1] Group 2 - Emerging technology companies are examples of firms experiencing filling rights due to their core technologies, large market shares, and strong innovation capabilities [1] - The market is confident in the future performance growth of these companies, which is expected to lead to significant stock price increases [1] - This performance-driven filling rights market not only provides substantial returns for investors but also helps optimize market resource allocation [1] Group 3 - However, some filling rights stocks may be subject to pure speculation, lacking performance support [2] - Short-term speculation can lead to significant price volatility, particularly in small-cap stocks without fundamental backing [2] - Investors are advised to analyze the company's fundamentals, focusing on performance, industry position, and core competitiveness to identify sustainable filling rights [2] Group 4 - Future performance is a crucial support for the filling rights market, representing an inherent market operation rule [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and features of the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209), which has shown a positive trend in the market, reflecting a growing interest in high-quality dividend stocks [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 1, the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) increased by 0.60%, indicating a strong market performance [1]. - The ETF has experienced net inflows during trading, suggesting investor confidence and interest [1]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The ETF tracks the China Securities All Index Dividend Quality Index, which selects 50 companies known for stable dividends, high dividend yields, and consistent profitability [1]. - The ETF employs a "dividend + quality" dual-factor screening mechanism to identify undervalued and high-quality companies, aligning with Warren Buffett's value investment philosophy [1]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Investor Appeal - The fee structure of the ETF is competitive, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in the market [1]. - The ETF features a unique monthly dividend assessment mechanism that enhances cash flow management for investors, increasing its attractiveness for long-term holding [1]. Group 4: Market Context - In the current market environment, strategies that balance safety margins and profitability are becoming a focal point for investors [1].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that long-term investment returns are primarily driven by intrinsic value growth rather than market price fluctuations, with only 0.6% of returns attributed to price changes [1][2] - Apple's net profit doubled from 2016 to 2024, while its stock price increased approximately ninefold, indicating that a significant portion of the returns came from P/E ratio expansion, known as "Davis Double" [3][5] - The investment philosophy suggests that investing in great companies can yield unexpected additional returns, while investing in mediocre companies may lead to losses [6][19] Group 2 - The article discusses the irrationality of the market, which provides opportunities for value investors to capitalize on mispriced assets [7] - A specific example is given regarding Kuaishou's new recommendation system, which showed minimal improvements in user engagement but led to a significant stock price increase, highlighting the disconnect between market sentiment and actual financial performance [9] - The importance of a sound investment decision-making process is stressed, as it is more critical than the final investment outcome [10][11] Group 3 - The author expresses skepticism about short-term stock price movements driven by hype, as seen in the case of Alibaba and Tencent, where the actual business performance did not align with market expectations [12][13] - The article critiques investment strategies that lack a solid analytical foundation, emphasizing the need for understanding the business model and financial metrics before investing [16][18] - It concludes that true value investors focus on the intrinsic value of companies and the potential for price correction based on that value, rather than speculative trading [19]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "mystical stock trading" in the A-share market, exemplified by stocks with the character "马" (horse), has led to significant price increases, prompting calls for urgent regulation to curb such speculative practices [1][2]. Group 1: Nature of Mystical Stock Trading - Mystical stock trading encompasses various forms of irrational speculation, including trading based on names, zodiac signs, and arbitrary associations, which disrupts market order and undermines value investing [1][2]. - The recent surge in stocks associated with the "马" character reflects a trend of annual speculative trading, lacking any fundamental basis or logical connection between the companies involved [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Value Investing - The speculative nature of mystical stock trading distorts the fundamental principles of value investing, leading to significant deviations in stock prices from their actual company values, creating risk bubbles [2][3]. - The influx of funds into mystical stock trading can result in a misallocation of resources in the capital market, where genuine high-performing stocks may be undervalued due to lack of interest [2][3]. Group 3: Role of Institutional Investors - The participation of some institutional investors in mystical stock trading undermines the credibility of professional investors and negatively impacts the confidence of retail investors [3]. - The reliance on stock names for valuation disregards financial reports and professional analysis, leading to unfair market conditions and potential market manipulation [3][4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the release of the 7th edition of "Security Analysis," which retains the essence of the 2nd edition cherished by Warren Buffett while incorporating insights from 15 Wall Street investment masters [1] - The new edition emphasizes the enduring principles of value investing, highlighting that despite market changes over the past 90 years, the core investment wisdom remains applicable today [1][24] - The essence of value investing is to purchase securities at a price below their intrinsic value, often summarized as "buying for 50 cents on the dollar" [4][24] Value Investing Principles - Value investors profit through cash flows generated by the underlying business and capital gains when the market recognizes the intrinsic value [5] - A significant aspect of value investing is the margin of safety, which protects investors from errors in judgment and market fluctuations [5] - Identifying and purchasing undervalued securities is crucial, but determining the right entry and exit points requires subjective judgment [5][6] Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - Investors often react emotionally to market movements, leading to irrational buying and selling decisions [9][10] - Maintaining a contrarian viewpoint and conducting thorough fundamental analysis is essential for value investors to avoid herd mentality [7][10] Investment Strategy and Analysis - Value investors should plan to exit positions when securities return to their intrinsic value, typically selling when prices are 10%-20% below their assessed value [6] - A disciplined selling strategy allows investors to reallocate capital to more attractive opportunities [7] - The complexity of financial analysis has increased, necessitating strong analytical skills to derive accurate conclusions from available data [13][14] Technological Impact on Investing - The rapid technological advancements have transformed the investment landscape, requiring investors to adapt their analysis methods [15][16] - Companies today face unique challenges and opportunities due to technological disruption, making traditional valuation methods less applicable [15][18] Future Considerations - Value investors must focus on sustainable future cash flows while being cautious of overpaying for growth potential [19][20] - The investment landscape is evolving, and successful investors must continuously refine their strategies to account for changing market dynamics [23][24]

Group 1 - Recent trends show that bank wealth management subsidiaries are deeply participating as cornerstone investors in the Hong Kong IPO market, providing long-term funding support for technology companies while enhancing their own equity investment capabilities [2] - In the case of Sanhua Intelligent Control's Hong Kong listing, China Post Wealth Management and ICBC Wealth Management secured a $20 million cornerstone investment share, joining a list of 18 top global institutions, indicating strong international capital confidence with over 747 times subscription for the public offering [2] - China Post Wealth Management previously set an industry record with a $50 million cornerstone investment in CATL's Hong Kong IPO, showcasing its professional research and execution capabilities during market volatility [2][3] Group 2 - Bank wealth management funds are reshaping the Hong Kong stock ecosystem by bringing not only capital but also value investment concepts and long-term capital support [3] - China Post Wealth Management has formed a full-cycle support strategy for CATL through a combination of A-share private placements and Hong Kong IPOs, achieving significant returns such as a 16.43% increase on the first day of CATL's listing [3] - ICBC Wealth Management has innovatively launched "fixed income + Hong Kong IPO" strategy products, targeting technology innovation and advanced manufacturing sectors, thereby enhancing product returns and meeting the equity financing needs of technology companies [3] Group 3 - The transformation of wealth management funds into patient capital is a key leap, with products having a duration of one year or more now accounting for 27% of the total, and three-year products making up 13% [4] - As the construction of Hong Kong as an international financial center accelerates, bank wealth management subsidiaries are expected to encounter three major development opportunities: deepening strategic collaboration with technology companies through cornerstone investments, optimizing asset allocation via the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and enhancing research capabilities to create distinctive equity products [4] - This dual-directional movement of capital and industry is contributing to financial innovation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4]

Company Overview - Xiangcheng Capital Management Co., Ltd. was established in 2016, focusing on secondary market stock investments, primarily in Hong Kong, A-shares, and U.S. stocks [2] - The founder, He Xiao, has nearly 20 years of experience in the industry and has received multiple awards, including the Golden Bull Award [2][8] - As of May 2025, Xiangcheng Capital ranks in the top 10 of the "Top 100 Private Equity" list for average returns over the past six months [2] Investment Philosophy - The company emphasizes the need to overcome path dependence from past successes and continuously iterate to keep pace with China's new economic development [2] - It aims to identify industries with long-term comparative advantages based on social development trends and China's economic restructuring [2] Development Milestones - 2016: Xiangcheng Capital was founded - 2018: Obtained private fund license and registered with the Asset Management Association of China - 2019: Launched the first fund, "Xiangcheng Capital Noah Ark No.1" - 2024: Management scale surpassed 1 billion yuan [8] Core Team - The core team consists of members from prestigious universities, providing a strong academic foundation for market trend analysis [15] - The team has extensive experience in industry research, data analysis, and strategy formulation [16] Competitive Advantages - **Flexible Position Management**: The company adjusts its positions based on market opportunities and risks, achieving absolute returns while controlling drawdowns [15] - **Strong Research Team**: The team has undergone rigorous training in top public funds, enhancing their ability to analyze market trends [16] - **Clear Goals and Stability**: The team has never used leverage tools, focusing on long-term equity investments to benefit from compounding effects [17] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes contrarian investing, value investing, and a focus on safety margins [18] - The company employs market timing and stock selection based on valuation indicators and behavioral finance [19] Product Performance - The flagship product, "Xiangcheng Capital Noah Ark No.1," has shown significant returns since its inception [19] - The fund has been recognized multiple times in various rankings for its performance [22]

Group 1 - Shanghai Jinglin Asset Management Company is a private fund management company registered with the Asset Management Association of China, focusing on investments in domestic and foreign listed company stocks [2] - The company has a strong track record of performance, managing various A-share trust investment plans since 2006, and has gained the trust of large institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals [2] - Jinglin's investment philosophy emphasizes value investing, utilizing fundamental analysis and stock valuation, with a preference for companies with high entry barriers and strong negotiation capabilities [2] Group 2 - Jinglin Asset recently conducted research on Tianhe Defense, highlighting its core business lines, including military equipment, communication electronics, and new-generation integrated electronic information [1] - Tianhe Defense has signed contracts for a portable air defense missile intelligence command system upgrade project, with a total contract value of approximately 260 million yuan, indicating potential for ongoing orders [1] - The company is advancing a stock issuance to specific targets for 2024, with all raised funds intended to supplement working capital [1]

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market has seen a significant increase in activity since June, with a total of 151 new public funds established in June, reaching a total issuance scale of 120.56 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year [1] - The issuance scale of new public funds has consistently remained above 60 billion yuan per month throughout the year, with January and February seeing issuance scales of 86.31 billion yuan and 66.54 billion yuan respectively, and March surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time at 104.08 billion yuan [1] - In June, the issuance scale of new funds exceeded 100 billion yuan again, indicating a recovery in the market after a dip in April and May [1][2] Group 2 - Bond funds and equity funds have played a crucial role in the significant growth of new fund issuance in June, with 33 new bond funds launched, totaling 57.93 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 48% of the total new fund issuance [2] - The equity funds also contributed significantly, with 101 new equity funds established in June, totaling 48.27 billion yuan, which is about 40% of the total new fund issuance [2] - The first batch of new floating-rate funds was concentrated in June, with 23 such funds established, raising a total of 21.83 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [2] Group 3 - Other types of funds also showed promising results, with the second fund of the year exceeding 6 billion yuan in issuance being the "Oriental Red Yingfeng Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF)," which is the largest fund issued since June [3] - The significant increase in new fund issuance reflects a dual effort from public institutions actively positioning themselves and investors eagerly subscribing [3] - Industry experts are optimistic about future investment opportunities in both the stock and bond markets, with expectations of further policy support to boost consumption growth [3][4] Group 4 - Current market conditions may present a favorable opportunity for value investing, focusing on selecting quality industries and companies at reasonable prices, as many quality companies are still valued relatively low [4] - The market opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to exhibit a "dumbbell structure," with one end representing technology and growth stocks, while the other end consists of undervalued, high-dividend blue-chip stocks [4]