Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3340 per ounce, with a significant increase of 1.1% on the previous day, closing at $3338.70 per ounce after a rise of $35.99 [1] - The market is anticipating the ADP employment data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more economic data is needed before initiating monetary easing, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, which could enhance gold's appeal as it does not yield interest [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent upward trend in gold prices suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, as the market has seen a significant number of short positions being liquidated [2] - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at $3358, while a support level is noted at $3326, with a potential downward movement towards $3300 if the support is breached [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Current oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65.42 per barrel and Brent at $67.09 per barrel, reflecting a cautious balance among multiple market factors [5] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ supply plans and U.S. economic data, which are pivotal in shaping oil price movements [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and potential Fed rate cuts are key variables that could influence future oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a high-level consolidation phase [6] - The recommended trading strategy for oil includes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $68.0-$69.0 and support levels at $64.5-$63.5 [6]

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：我认为2025年需要有五次降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member Taylor suggests that interest rates may need to be cut five times by 2025, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Taylor anticipates a need for five interest rate cuts by 2025, reflecting concerns over economic conditions [1] - The neutral interest rate is expected to be around 2.75% to 3%, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Group 2: Energy Prices Impact - The impact of energy prices remains a significant unknown factor, which could affect inflation and economic stability [1]

智通财经7月2日电，英国央行货币政策委员泰勒称，其认为2025年需要有5次降息。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：我不认为需要或希望进行更大幅度的降息。 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts within the year and five by the end of 2026, according to CME's FedWatch tool[3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may be more complex than the market's linear expectations due to unaccounted input inflation from a weaker dollar[4] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase U.S. imports to approximately $3.6 trillion and widen the trade deficit beyond $1.2 trillion, raising inflationary pressures[4] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Historical data indicates that a declining dollar often leads to increased input inflation, which may have a lagging effect on prices[5] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year low point likely occurred in April or May, with expectations for inflation to rise above 3% by year-end if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.2%[5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest, complicating the inflation outlook further[4] Group 3: Demand Response to Rate Cuts - Rate cuts may not stimulate demand as effectively as anticipated, as evidenced by the slow recovery in the Eurozone despite over 200 basis points of cuts since 2024[6] - The wealth effect from rate cuts could differ this time, as a significant portion of U.S. Treasury bonds is now held by the private sector, potentially dampening the positive impact on asset values[6] - If the Fed's rate cuts are insufficient, the net financial cost for companies may actually increase, countering the intended benefits of lower rates[7]

黄金犹如坐过山车，上周大幅下杀后，本周初便强力反弹，力度之大令人咋舌。从周线看，整体仍处于震荡区间。月线收官时收出十字星，这一形 态为后市走势增添了诸多悬念。技术上十字星是中继信号，并非顶部信号，但震荡格局尚未打破，何时能迎来趋势性行情，仍是未知数。4小时图 上，黄金在黄金分割位50%处难以站稳，主要支阻均线对金价形成压制，下跌风险隐现。3451以来的下降趋势线形成的侧向支撑，也岌岌可危。日 线上金价位于走平的布林中轨，昨日刺破后收回，后市方向不明。但结合前两日收阳且探底回升的态势，后市看多概率增大，或呈现亚盘回落、欧 盘或美盘上扬的走势，目前上方阻力在3344-3349，下方支撑在3321-3315，操作上建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3339-3345做空，损3352，目标看3320-3300。 操作策略2：建议回调3305-3300做多，损3290，目标看3325-3345。 生活除了投资，还有诗和远方，以及徐老师。面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。目 前主要研究现货黄金为主，笔者涉足金融以及金融衍生品分析多年，指导经验丰富，以 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，随着中东地区进展局势缓和，供需关系将成为油价的最核心因素，OPEC+降速增产的概率很大，油价上涨困 难重重。 黄金价格走势图：黄金小时图 原油方面：据消息人士透露，OPEC+计划在8月将原油产量再提高41.1万桶/日，延续了5月以来的增产计划。意味着OPEC+将增产总量提高至178 万桶/日，约占全球原油需求的1.5%，220万桶/日的自愿减产已经基本取消。 另一方面，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，美国代表与以色列就加沙停火举行谈判，以色列同意60天的停火协议，地区局势有缓和的继续，或将促成 油价进一步下跌。 黄金方面：昨日（7月1日）美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中表示，如果没有特朗普关税政策的影响，美联储已经开始降息，会采取比目前更宽松的政 策。同时还表示看到了关税规模后才选择了维持利率不变，担心美国的通胀会出现大幅上升。对于7月降息的问题，他表示会根据数据的情况，在 逐次的议息会议作出决定。 从鲍威尔的表述来看，美联储已经做好了降息的准备，将在未来几个月开始行动。对于市场而言，未来押注降息的概率将会上升，对黄金上涨有 利。 技术面：黄金昨日（7月1日）延续上涨，再次收阳线，多头强劲，突 ...

摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示，在美国，"Magnificent7"科技股具备估值和盈利支撑，而标 普500其余股票估值接近历史高位。鉴于科技采用持续推动该板块快速盈利增长，摩根资产管理将美国 投资倾向科技和通讯服务板块。在美国以外，日本和中国香港股票具倍估值支撑。中国股市整体动能增 强，摩根资产管理预计这一趋势将持续。日本股市则在2025年下半年提供追赶机会。 摩根资产管理超配主权债券，预计美国10年期国债收益率将在3.75%至4.50%区间交易。美国收益率曲 线陡化趋势可能持续，但因市场拥挤及美联储定价调整，短期内面临风险。摩根资产管理偏好非美国主 权债券市场，如意大利政府债券和英国国债，而非日本债券。 扩展固定收益方面，摩根资产管理看好高收益债券，尽管利差仅300个基点，但受强劲企业资产负债表 支撑，整体收益率接近7.5%。 股票方面，大多数投资组合接近中性，但通过区域和板块相对价值观点实现针对性风险倾向。摩根资产 管理对经济的乐观看法(增长上行风险更大)支持盈利增长，特别是2026年。然而，许多市场估值远高于 长期平均水平，对未来回报构成阻力。 关税可能导致美国通胀暂时飙升，核心消费者物价指数( ...