Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][4]. Economic Fundamentals - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic consumption and capital formation contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The country is committed to expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3]. Foreign Exchange Market Resilience - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, with a more flexible exchange rate mechanism that can respond to external pressures [4]. - The corporate awareness of exchange rate risk has increased, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of cross-border RMB transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of last year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [5]. - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased, with a net inflow of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds, reversing the previous two years' net outflow trend [6]. International Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation to RMB assets, reflecting the growing appeal of RMB-denominated investments for risk diversification [7]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [8]. Service Trade Performance - China's service trade income grew by 13% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42% and the service trade deficit decreasing by 14% [9]. Direct Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of equity direct investment into China increased by 16% year-on-year, amounting to $31.1 billion [10]. Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [11]. - The market shows no significant expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation, indicating rational trading behavior [12]. Market Activity - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of the year, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [14]. - The combined scale of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached $2.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically [15]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The current foreign exchange market shows no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with rational and orderly trading observed [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level due to high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience in the foreign exchange market [2]. - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining stability within the range of 7.15 to 7.35 [3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - In the first half of the year, six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in the reform [4]. - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached 21 trillion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - From January to May, net inflows of direct investment in equity from abroad amounted to 31.1 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5]. - The total scale of cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals reached 7.6 trillion USD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [8]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net selling observed in the past two years [9]. - The total amount of foreign-held RMB bonds exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a stable interest in RMB assets [9]. Group 5: Service Trade Developments - In the first half of the year, service trade income grew by 13%, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 14% [10]. Group 6: Global Central Bank Trends - A recent survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting a growing recognition of RMB assets as important for risk diversification and yield enhancement [11].

涉外收支规模稳步增加 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元，同比增长10.4%，规模创历史同期 新高，其中，人民币在跨境收支中的比重达到53%。上半年，银行结汇和售汇规模合计2.3万亿美元， 同比增长3%，规模为历史同期次高。这些数据表明，我国跨境贸易和投融资活动继续保持活跃。 跨境资金延续净流入 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入1273亿美元，延续去年下半年以来的净流入态势，其 中，二季度净流入环比增长46%。分项目看，上半年货物贸易项下净流入保持高位，外资总体净增持境 内股票和债券，服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出平稳有序。 外汇市场供求基本平衡 上半年，银行结售汇逆差253亿美元，但月度间呈现较为明显的变化。其中，1月结售汇为逆差，2—4月 趋向基本平衡，5月和6月结售汇转为顺差，企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。上半年，衡量 结汇意愿的外汇收入结汇率为60%，同比保持稳定；衡量购汇意愿的外汇支出售汇率为65%，同比下降 3个百分点。 据央视新闻消息，国务院新闻办今天（22日）举行新闻发布会，国家外汇管理局发布上半年外汇收支情 况。国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李 ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in the first half of 2025, the scale of cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached a historical high for the same period [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market maintained stable operations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - Cross-border trade and investment financing were active, contributing to the record levels of cross-border income and expenditure [1] - The foreign exchange market expectations remained stable, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining basic stability and continued net inflow of cross-border funds [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were generally balanced, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves remained stable [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1450.620, showing an increase of 5.240 or 0.36% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1292.376, reflecting a decrease of 3.710 or 0.29% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3403.900, down by 6.400 or 0.19% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.175, decreasing by 0.065 or 0.17% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The euro to US dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.168, down by 0.08% [3] - The British pound to US dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.348, down by 0.10% [3] - The US dollar to Japanese yen (USDJPY) is at 147.592, up by 0.17% [3] - The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.652, down by 0.12% [3] - The US dollar to Swiss franc (USDCHF) is at 0.799, up by 0.11% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 117355.800, down by 24.570 or 0.02% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 115.500, increasing by 0.070 or 0.06% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3757.220, down by 5.110 or 0.14% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 3.529, decreasing by 0.020 or 0.57% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The US 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.859, up by 0.007 or 0.18% [6] - The US 5-year Treasury yield is at 3.911, increasing by 0.003 or 0.08% [7] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.374, down by 0.005 or 0.11% [7] - The US 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.938, up by 0.001 or 0.02% [7] - The UK 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.603, down by 0.001 or 0.02% [7] - The German 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.618, down by 0.073 or 2.71% [7] - The French 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.297, down by 0.099 or 2.92% [7] - The Italian 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.482, down by 0.094 or 2.63% [7] - The Japanese 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.520, down by 0.007 or 0.46% [7]

Group 1 - The core concept of foreign exchange rates is the exchange ratio between one country's currency and another, which is influenced by complex mechanisms [1] - Foreign exchange rates arise from international economic interactions, such as trade, investment, and labor exports, necessitating a reasonable exchange ratio for transactions [1] - The foreign exchange market is the primary venue for the formation of exchange rates, involving various participants including commercial banks, multinational corporations, and central banks [1][2] Group 2 - Supply and demand dynamics are direct factors affecting exchange rates; an increase in demand for a currency, with stable or decreasing supply, leads to appreciation of that currency [2] - Economic fundamentals, such as a country's growth rate and inflation, significantly influence exchange rates; stable economic growth attracts foreign investment, increasing demand for the currency [2] - Interest rates also play a crucial role; higher interest rates attract foreign investors, increasing demand for the currency and leading to its appreciation [3] Group 3 - Political stability is vital for attracting foreign investment, which supports the currency's value; political turmoil can lead to decreased demand for the currency and depreciation [3]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advised President Trump against dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, to which Trump responded that it is "not necessary" [1] - The Japanese ruling coalition suffered a significant defeat in the House of Councillors election, leading analysts to warn of potential political instability that could impact U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [1] - Current short positions in the USD/JPY market are nearing 80%, raising questions about future market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 56% compared to 44% bearish [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 31% against 69% bearish [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 52% versus 48% bearish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 35% compared to 65% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 29% against 71% bearish [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 23% versus 77% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and a bearish sentiment of 67% [4] - The EUR/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 14% against 86% bearish [4] - The EUR/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 7% compared to 93% bearish [4] - The EUR/AUD pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 13% versus 87% bearish [4] - The GBP/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 27% against 73% bearish [4] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 75% compared to 25% bearish [4] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 22% against 78% bearish [4] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 36% versus 64% bearish [4] - The USD/CHF pair has a bullish sentiment of 93% compared to 70% bearish [4]

Group 1 - The Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Aoki Kazuhiko, refrained from commenting on the foreign exchange market [1] - Emphasized the importance of stable fluctuations in exchange rates reflecting the fundamentals [1] - Stated that there will be continued close monitoring of interest rate trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market plays a crucial role in the global financial system, serving as a key support for international trade and investment, as well as a platform for investors to diversify their asset allocation and seek profit opportunities [1] Group 1: Basic Concepts of the Foreign Exchange Market - The foreign exchange market is a trading venue for buying and selling foreign currencies, driven by the demand for currency exchange in international economic activities such as trade and investment [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Foreign Exchange Market - The market operates 24 hours a day, allowing continuous trading from Monday morning in New Zealand to Friday evening in New York, providing convenience for global investors [3] - The foreign exchange market boasts high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume exceeding $6 trillion as of 2023, enabling easy execution of large transactions without significant price impact [4] - A wide variety of trading options are available, including major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as well as financial derivatives such as forex options and futures [5] - The market is characterized by high transparency, with timely information on economic data, political events, and central bank policies available to investors for informed decision-making [6] - High leverage is common in forex trading, with ratios often reaching up to 100 times, allowing investors to control large positions with relatively small capital [7] - Transaction costs in the forex market are generally low, with typical spreads below 0.1%, enhancing the efficiency of capital use for frequent traders [8] - The market is free from manipulation by any single entity, ensuring fair price determination based on global supply and demand dynamics [9] - Entry barriers are low, allowing a wide range of participants, including individual investors, to engage in forex trading with minimal requirements [10] Group 3: Participants in the Foreign Exchange Market - Central banks play a significant role by intervening in the market to stabilize their currencies and implement monetary policies that impact forex dynamics [11] - Commercial banks provide essential forex services to clients and engage in proprietary trading to profit from market movements [12] - Enterprises participate primarily for international trade and cross-border investment, requiring currency exchange for transactions [13] - Investment institutions, such as hedge funds and pension funds, actively engage in forex trading to manage risks and enhance returns [14] - Individual investors increasingly participate in the forex market, seeking additional income or hedging against risks in other investments [15] Group 4: Functions of the Foreign Exchange Market - The forex market facilitates international trade by providing a mechanism for currency exchange, thus removing monetary barriers in global commerce [16] - It establishes a mechanism for exchange rate formation based on supply and demand, influenced by various economic and political factors [17] - The market offers risk management tools, allowing businesses and investors to hedge against currency fluctuations and stabilize financial outcomes [18] Group 5: Differences Between the Foreign Exchange Market and Other Markets - Compared to the stock market, forex trading involves currency pairs rather than company shares, operates 24/7, and exhibits higher liquidity [20] - In contrast to the bond market, forex investors primarily profit from currency price differences, facing more complex risks influenced by global events [22]

1. 美国6月整体CPI小幅反弹，核心CPI不及预期。 2. 美联储传声筒：CPI报告不会改变美联储的政策走向。 3. 特朗普再次敦促美联储降息，称美联储应降息3个百分点。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（2025-07-16） 1. 韩国财政部长提名人誓言改善外汇市场准入。 2. 欧洲央行管委内格尔：欧洲央行的利率需要稳定。 3. 英国6月CPI年率升至3.6%，月率升至0.3%，均高于预期。交易员削减英国央行降息押注。 4. 美联储-洛根：基准预期是货币政策需要继续保持紧缩一段时间，以抑制通胀。柯林斯：现在是美联 储在货币政策方面保持积极耐心的时候。关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持 在约3%。 其它 美元 ...