一、存量市场概览 截止上周五，地方债存量规模达到 50.49 万亿元。存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比 为 21%。明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域，存量余额均在 1 万亿以上。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8700 亿元，水利和生态项目存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。截止 4 月 25 日，广 东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，三省地方债存量规模均超过 3 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖 南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 1911.22 亿元，较前一周微降。其中，新增专项债 1167.07 亿元，再融资专项债 429.21 亿元。 分募集资金用途来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域，"置换隐性债务"发行 规模较上周有所下降。截至 4 月 25 日，4 月份特殊再融资专项债发行已有 2616.69 亿元，占当月地方债发行规模的 比例达到 37.74%。 发行期限结构方面，上周 1-7 年和 7-10 年期地方债发行占比相对较高，占比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province has issued various special local bonds with different maturities and interest rates, indicating strong demand and investor confidence in the region's financial instruments [1] Summary by Category Bond Issuance Details - Zhejiang issued 10-year special local bonds with a scale of 30.98 billion, an interest rate of 1.70%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.82, exceeding the expected ratio of 1.71 [1] - The province also issued 15-year special local bonds amounting to 22.25 billion at an interest rate of 1.86%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.66, compared to an expected ratio of 1.89 [1] - For 20-year special local bonds, Zhejiang raised 148.77 billion at an interest rate of 2.01%, achieving a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.34, higher than the expected 2.04 [1] - Additionally, 30-year special local bonds were issued with a scale of 25.64 billion at an interest rate of 1.95%, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.21, against an expected ratio of 1.99 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].

4月28日，财政部公布数据，截至2025年3月末，全国地方政府债务余额501650亿元。其中，一般债务 170225亿元，专项债务331425亿元；政府债券500046亿元，非政府债券形式存量政府债务1604亿元。 截至2025年3月末，地方政府债券剩余平均年限10.0年，其中一般债券5.9年，专项债券12.2年；平均利 率2.99%，其中一般债券3.08%，专项债券2.95%。 ...

财政部数据显示，2025年3月，全国发行新增债券4375亿元，其中一般债券740亿元、专项债券3635亿 元。全国发行再融资债券5413亿元，其中一般债券1008亿元、专项债券4405亿元。合计，全国发行地方 政府债券9788亿元，其中一般债券1748亿元、专项债券8040亿元。截至2025年3月末，全国地方政府债 务余额501650亿元。其中，一般债务170225亿元，专项债务331425亿元；政府债券500046亿元，非政府 债券形式存量政府债务1604亿元。 ...

分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] MLF 加量续作，资金价格下行——流动性和 机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日，央行净投放资金，资金利率整体下行；政府债净融资规模下降； 同业存单净融资规模提升，同业存单到期收益率小幅上行；银行间债券市场杠杆率稳定于偏低 水平，国有大行及政策行净融出规模略有上升。2025 年 4 月 28 日-5 月 4 日政府债预计净融资 1211 亿元。 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title MLF 加量续作，资金价格下行——流动性和机 2] 构行为周度观察 [Table_Summary2] 资金面 资金利率先上后下，整体延续偏宽松表现。2025 年 4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日，DR001、R001 平 均值分别为 1.65%和 1.67 ...

甘肃发行7年期棚改专项地方债，规模22.4728亿元，发行利率1.7700%，边际倍数1.10倍，倍数预期 1.87。 甘肃发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模14.6650亿元，发行利率2.1300%，边际倍数2.07倍，倍数预期 2.03； 甘肃发行20年期其他专项地方债，规模37.2347亿元，发行利率2.1300%，边际倍数1.67倍，倍数预期 2.06； ...

贝森特：投资者未必对美国市场失去信心 金十数据4月28日讯，美国财长贝森特在周日接受采访，主持人问美国股债双杀，投资者似乎对美国失 去信心，这是否令他感到担忧？贝森特回答道："你又在说失去信心了。我不认为这一定是失去信心。 我在市场上有35到40年的经验。在两周或一个月的时间窗口内发生的任何事情都可能是统计噪音或市场 噪音。你知道，我们是长期投资者。重要的是，我们正在为强势美元、强劲经济、强劲股市打下基础， 并让投资者知道美国政府的债券市场是世界上最安全、最稳健的。" ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Group 1: Core Concerns - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report indicates that 73% of respondents identify "global trade risk" as their primary concern, more than double the percentage from the previous report in November [1][3] - Half of the respondents express concerns about "policy uncertainty," reflecting anxiety over the current policy environment, which includes trade, fiscal, and monetary policies [1][4] - "Sustainability of U.S. government debt," which was the top concern in last year's report, has dropped to third place, yet remains a significant issue due to rising debt levels and potential impacts on market confidence in the dollar [1][5] Group 2: Market Implications - The escalation of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and other major economies, poses a significant threat to global economic growth and financial market stability [3] - Policy uncertainty complicates market predictions and investment decisions, increasing market volatility [4] - The complex and uncertain market outlook necessitates diversified investment strategies and enhanced risk management practices to mitigate exposure to trade and policy risks [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies and investors are advised to diversify their investment portfolios to reduce risk exposure from single markets or assets [6] - Strengthening risk management, especially in supply chain management and market forecasting, is crucial to address risks arising from trade policies and uncertainty [6] - Continuous monitoring of policy developments is essential for timely adjustments in investment strategies and business plans [6]