Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Views - The market is experiencing high volatility with significant sector differentiation, particularly with innovative drugs performing strongly while the automotive sector has seen notable declines [1][2] - Overall, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.4%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.9% [1] - The report highlights that 19 industries within the Hong Kong Stock Connect saw gains, while 11 experienced losses, with the most significant increases in the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and defense sectors [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,893, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 19.1% [12] - The small-cap stocks outperformed mid and large-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Small Cap Index rising by 4.5% [1] Fund Flow - There was a significant outflow of funds from the automotive sector, with an average daily outflow of HKD 17.7 billion, while the pharmaceutical sector saw an inflow of HKD 4.8 billion [2] - The overall average daily fund intensity for Hong Kong Stock Connect components was -8.0 billion HKD, indicating a shift from the previous week’s positive inflow [2] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a substantial upward revision in earnings per share (EPS) expectations, particularly for the automotive sector, which saw a 24.3% increase [3] - In total, 26 industries had their EPS forecasts revised upward, while only 3 experienced downward revisions [3] Sector Performance - The comprehensive sector led with a 19.2% increase, followed by pharmaceuticals at 8.5% and defense at 8.1% [16] - The automotive sector, however, faced a decline of 4.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges within the industry [16]

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

Group 1 - The fund company announced a limit on daily subscriptions, conversions, and regular investments for its index fund I class shares to RMB 1 million starting from June 6 [1][3] - Other funds under the company, including the technology and healthcare index funds, also implemented the same limit of RMB 1 million for their I class shares, while A and C class shares remain unrestricted [3][4] - The reason for the limit is to "protect the interests of fund shareholders," preventing sudden large inflows that could disrupt investment strategies and lead to potential arbitrage opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - Industry experts believe that limiting large subscriptions helps to mitigate the impact of institutional funds, which could lead to rapid fund size expansion and affect strategy execution [4] - The recent positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market has attracted more institutional funds for short-term trading, particularly in I class shares designed for institutional investors with lower fees [4]

中金展望2025下半年港股：震荡市中寻结构性机会 金十数据6月10日讯，中金公司认为，上半年，港股市场显著跑赢A股，全球表现居前，展现出韧性。 但问题在于反弹呈现"脉冲式冲高回落"，且上涨高度集中（仅约35%的个股跑赢指数），近期市场再度 显露疲态。下半年，港股市场将面临过剩流动性的"资金盛"和有限回报的"资产荒"的局面。预计整体指 数将维持区间震荡，结构性行情仍是主线。 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.6.2-2025.6.8 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： l 港股市场宏观环境： l 港股市场展望： 2 n 本周中美关税摩擦继续缓和，结合政策加力的预期，港股市场本周迎来反弹，恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 +2.20%/+2.16%/+2.25%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，原材料业涨幅排在第一，周涨幅超5.5%；医疗 保健业继续保持强势，周涨幅超4.0%，排在第二。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至72.3%，估值水平略超5年均值。 n 基本面：央行本周打破惯例，在6月初首次开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放明确宽松信号。 n 资金面：5月美国非农虽较上月走弱，但超市场预期，就业市场仍有韧性，市场对于美联储降息的预期继续承压。 n 基本面：经济复苏的内生动能仍然偏弱，外需承压下内需仍待政策面托举；政策面： 货币政策持续宽松加 ...

Group 1: Important News - Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call with US President Donald Trump [1] - On June 6, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 10,000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [1] Group 2: Individual Stock News - Jinju Group (02009.HK) won a residential land bid in Haidian District, Beijing for 3.364 billion yuan [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719.HK) obtained a drug registration certificate for ethyl ester soft capsules of eicosapentaenoic acid [2] - JINGRUI Holdings (01862.HK) reported a contract sales amount of approximately 387 million yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 50.76% [2] - Hongyang Real Estate (01996.HK) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of 2.47 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 39.77% [2] - Sunac China (01918.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 16 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 35.28% [2] - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 1.963 billion yuan for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of 30.64% [2] - Dongfeng Motor Group (00489.HK) reported cumulative automobile sales of 672,800 units for the first five months, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.1% [2] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276.HK) and its subsidiaries received clinical trial approval notices for SHR-A1811 injection, adalimumab injection, and fumaric acid famotidine capsules [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has strategic allocation value from a medium to long-term perspective, with expectations for relative performance improvement [1] Group 1: Market Responsibilities - The Hong Kong stock market plays three important roles: facilitating companies' overseas expansion, enabling capital repatriation, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The main driving factor for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year is expected to be profit growth, with high volatility anticipated in the third quarter [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - High dividend sectors and essential consumer goods are recommended as core holdings, while opportunities for increasing allocations include technology (especially hard tech, internet, and AI), consumption (potential recovery in internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumer goods like personal care, dairy, and agriculture), and large financials (local Hong Kong stocks and Chinese stocks) [1]

无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> 截至发文，其他相关ETF表现如下：恒生消费ETF(513970)涨幅为0.64%，港股通汽车ETF(159323)涨幅 为1.38%，香港证券ETF(513090)涨幅为1.15%，港股科技50ETF(513980)涨幅为1.89%。 港股市场今日表现亮眼，港股通创新药ETF(159570)涨超2%，连涨3天，成交额3.62亿元，较昨日此时 放量20.76%，近1月份额增加2.72亿份，该基金支持T+0交易。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant activity in 2023, particularly in Q2, with many A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, leading to increased investment through ETF products [1][2] - Since April, over 100 ETF products focused on the Hong Kong market have been launched, with nearly 60% of these products experiencing growth in their share sizes, totaling an increase of 184.04 million shares, reaching a total size of 428 billion shares [2][3] - The influx of capital from mainland investors has supported the recovery of the Hong Kong market after significant fluctuations, including a drop of over 13% in the Hang Seng Index in early April [2][3] Group 2 - Specific sectors such as technology and internet-related ETFs have shown notable growth, while healthcare and pharmaceutical-related products have seen a decline in share sizes [3][9] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (159792) has seen a share increase of 64.78 million shares since April, making it the largest product in terms of share size among Hong Kong-focused ETFs [4][5] - Conversely, the Hang Seng Medical ETF has experienced a significant decrease of 97.75 million shares, despite a year-to-date increase of 32% in its price [10][11] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has attracted attention, with the Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (159217) growing by 24.31 million shares, reflecting a 192% increase [7][9] - Despite the overall growth in certain ETFs, many have faced price declines, with several products tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 5% since April [5][10] - The trend of "buying the dip" is evident in technology and internet-related ETFs, while funds have been withdrawing from healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors [3][9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback last week, with major indices declining, including the Hang Seng Index which closed at 23,289.77 points, down 1.32% [1] - The volatility in the Hang Seng Index is expected to remain high due to fluctuating trade conditions, but there is optimism for a potential rise to the range of 24,000 to 26,000 points in the future [1] IPO Market - The IPO market in Hong Kong continues to thrive, with 28 companies successfully listing and raising over 76 billion HKD, a sevenfold increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The number of companies waiting to go public has reached a record high, with over 140 applications submitted this year, marking a nearly 50% increase year-on-year [2] - Deloitte forecasts that around 80 new stocks will be listed in 2025, raising approximately 130 to 150 billion HKD, primarily from the AI and healthcare sectors [2] Trading Activity - The trading activity in the Hong Kong market has been notably high, with an average daily trading volume of 2,427 billion HKD in Q1 2025, a 144% year-on-year increase [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is focusing on three main categories of projects: companies already listed in Asia seeking financing, Chinese companies returning from the US market, and emerging unicorns and innovative enterprises [3] Company Spotlight: Jihong Co., Ltd. - Jihong Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong main board on May 27, with a share price of 7.68 HKD, raising approximately 420 million HKD [4] - The company is the fifth A-share company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year and became the first to be included in the Stock Connect on its listing day [5] - Jihong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.477 billion CNY in Q1 2025, an 11.6% increase from 1.325 billion CNY in the same period of 2024 [5] Credit Ratings - Major credit rating agencies, including S&P and Moody's, have maintained a stable outlook for Hong Kong, with Moody's upgrading its outlook from negative to stable [6] - The stability of Hong Kong's financial system is reflected in the growth of bank deposits and active capital markets, indicating strong investor confidence [6]