Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing volatility, with short-term rebounds not altering the mid-term downtrend, driven by three main variables: Federal Reserve policy divergence, US fiscal concerns, and global de-dollarization [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and end consecutive rate cuts has led to a short-term dollar spike, but internal divisions among officials regarding potential rate cuts weaken the dollar's appeal [1] - Market expectations for two rate cuts within the year contribute to policy uncertainty, limiting the rebound momentum of the dollar [1] - Ongoing personnel and judicial issues within the Federal Reserve raise questions about its independence, further suppressing the dollar's mid-term outlook [1] Group 2: US Economic and Fiscal Concerns - Despite an upward revision of the 2026 GDP forecast by the Federal Reserve, high fiscal deficits and debt levels, along with recurring government shutdown risks, create credit concerns for US Treasury bonds [1] - The Trump administration's tacit approval of a declining dollar suggests further downside potential, with historical patterns indicating that intervention may only occur if the dollar falls below critical levels [1] Group 3: Global De-dollarization - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is intensifying pressure on the dollar, as multiple countries pursue local currency settlements and reduce reliance on the dollar [2] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has declined to a nearly 30-year low, with central banks selling US Treasuries and increasing gold holdings, undermining the dollar's credit foundation [2] - Technical indicators show that the dollar's short-term rebound lacks strength, with key resistance levels and insufficient trading volume limiting bullish momentum [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with long-term weakness likely to persist [2] - Short-term attention should be on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, core economic data, and government shutdown developments, as hawkish signals or positive data could lead to temporary rebounds [2] - However, the mid to long-term outlook remains constrained by policy divergence, fiscal concerns, and de-dollarization trends, making any rebound likely to be short-lived [2]

中间价方面，1月30日人民币对美元中间价报6.9678，较上一交易日调升93个基点。1月人民币对美元中 间价累计升值近0.87%。 兴业研究在研报中指出，2026年1月，地缘政治风险高发，美元指数先升后贬，纽约联储代表美国财政 部对美元兑日元进行rate check（汇率检查），日元带动非美货币反弹，特朗普"鼓励"弱美元加速美元下 行。人民币相对美元升值速率较去年12月放缓，非美货币相对人民币升值，有效汇率先升后贬。展望后 市，中间价熨平波动，人民币汇率继续温和升值。纽约联储主导的rate check已构筑日元多头氛围，压 制美元指数，需密切关注是否有日本单边和美日联合实质性干预措施。美元指数下行波段中，因弹性差 异，欧元等非美货币相对人民币升值。 1月人民币对美元中间价和即期汇率双双大涨。 1月最后一个交易日，人民币对美元即期汇率16时30分收于6.9486，较上一交易日下跌26个基点。整个1 月，人民币对美元即期汇率累计升值404个基点，升值幅度达到0.578%。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月30日，美元指数拉升，现涨0.57%，报96.71点。 ...

国际金银价格直线下挫，现货黄金跌7.95%，报4949.62美元/盎司；现货白银跌16.93%，报95.86美元/盎 司。 北京时间今日上午，有报道称特朗普政府准备提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，这一消息提振美元并引 发金属遭全面抛售。 | | ■ 黄金/美元 分时 v 1年:日K v | | | 西平、② □~ □ ◇ ○ ○ | | 报价 资讯 · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中 ノ・ア・ア | | | 0 0 | XAUUSD 黄金/美元 | | | | | | | D G G | | | | | | | | | 4963.81 ↓-413.72 -7.69% | | 5472.26 | | | | | 1.76% | | | | | | | | | ● 日 6 0 | | 5450.20 | | | | | 1.35% | | | | | | | | | 最高价 5451.04 开盘价 5401.11 | | 5428.15 | | | | | 0.94% | 最低价 4949.04 昨收价 5377.54 | | 5406.0 ...

受美联储人事变动预期及获利回吐压力影响，贵金属市场周五遭遇剧烈抛售，金银价格从历史高位大幅回落，结束了此前势不可挡的连创纪录 行情。这一突发性逆转表明，在经历了"融涨"式的单边上行后，市场对货币政策边际变化的敏感度正显著提升。 据华尔街见闻提及，市场消息称美国总统特朗普计划提名沃什出任美联储主席，这一消息成为触发市场避险情绪逆转的关键催化剂。由于沃什 长期以鹰派立场著称，投资者迅速重新定价美联储未来的政策路径，推动美元指数走强及美债收益率攀升，直接压制了无息资产贵金属的吸引 力。 受此影响，现货黄金价格日内暴跌6%，跌至每盎司5055美元附近，现货白银跌势也十分惨烈，日内跌超13%，跌破100美元/盎司大关。 此次深幅回调引发了投资者的强烈关注：这仅仅是牛市中的一次健康调整，还是意味着地缘政治与财政不确定性推动的上涨逻辑已发生根本性 逆转？分析人士普遍认为，尽管长期驱动因素依然存在，但短期技术面极度超买与政策预期的鹰派转向，正迫使市场进入剧烈震荡的盘整期。 沃什点燃鹰派预期+政府关门缓解财政担忧 此外，Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni分析称，随着民主党与共和党达成临时协议避免政府关门， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with major indices generally declining while the ChiNext index shows a slight increase, indicating a preference for technology growth sectors like telecommunications and a rejection of cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.96%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80, demonstrating relative resilience [1]. - The total trading volume for the day was 19.329 trillion yuan, maintaining a high level despite a slight decrease compared to previous sessions, reflecting active market participation and clear directional choices [1]. Sector Analysis - The telecommunications sector led the market with a gain of 2.58%, supported by strong demand driven by AI and infrastructure investments, indicating a clear preference for sectors with tangible growth prospects [2]. - In contrast, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a sharp decline of 8.39%, influenced by external macroeconomic factors and a crowded trading environment, leading to significant profit-taking and technical adjustments [2]. Future Outlook - The current market structure is expected to persist, characterized by growth sectors outperforming while cyclical sectors face pressure. The technology sector, particularly telecommunications and computing power, is likely to remain active [3]. - Non-ferrous metals and other cyclical sectors may require stabilization of the strong dollar and improvement in internal trading structures for recovery [3]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear industrial logic and solid support, while being cautious with volatile assets [3].

每经AI快讯，1月30日，美元涨幅扩大，美元指数现涨0.5%，报96.645。 ...

截至北京时间1月30日亚市尾盘，美元指数延续阶段性弱势运行，最新报价围绕96.00一线窄幅波动，盘 中最低触及95.85，创下2022年2月以来的阶段性新低。2026年开年至今，美元指数自99.30附近高位持续 回落，累计跌幅已超3%，空头趋势明朗，市场对美元的悲观预期持续发酵，弱势格局成为当前汇市核 心特征。 RSI相对强弱指标：日线RSI持续处于30以下的超卖区间，短期存在技术性修复的反弹需求，但指标尚 未出现底背离形态，超卖并不意味着趋势反转，更多是下跌过程中的阶段性休整，反弹高度大概率受 限。 MACD指标：MACD快慢线持续运行于零轴下方，死叉状态维持，空头能量柱虽未显著放大，但始终保 持正值，说明下行动能仍在持续释放，暂无明显的多头反攻信号。 布林带指标：价格紧贴布林带下轨运行，布林带开口逐步扩大，表明市场波动加剧，空头趋势的延续性 较强，短期反弹大概率受制于布林带中轨(96.80附近)。 非美货币：欧元、英镑、日元等G10主流非美货币同步走强，欧元兑美元回升至1.10上方，英镑兑美元 站稳1.28关口，商品货币(加元、澳元)受益于大宗商品上涨，对美元升值幅度更为显著，直接拖累美元 指数表现。 美 ...

每经AI快讯，1月30日，美元指数上涨0.27%至96.4340。 ...