Core Insights - The recent strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including a weaker US dollar, improved domestic asset attractiveness, and supportive policy signals from the central bank [2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On October 28, both onshore and offshore RMB broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar, reaching the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - As of October 29, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.097, down 0.02%, while the onshore RMB was at 7.099, up 0.02% [1]. - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB has appreciated by 3.3%, and the onshore RMB has increased by 2.7%, both exceeding 2000 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The depreciation of the US dollar index by 9% this year has created an environment for non-US currencies, including the RMB, to appreciate [2]. - Key drivers for the RMB's recent strength include: 1. A weaker US dollar providing an external window for appreciation. 2. Increased attractiveness of domestic assets, with strong performance in the A-share market attracting global capital inflows. 3. A resilient export performance contributing to trade surpluses that support the currency [2]. - The People's Bank of China has been signaling a stable to strong RMB through adjustments in the central parity rate, which has influenced market behavior [2]. Group 3: Corporate Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Companies are actively managing exchange rate risks, as evidenced by Yuxin Co.'s announcement to engage in foreign exchange hedging activities with a limit of up to 3 billion RMB or equivalent foreign currency [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - Analysts suggest that domestic fundamentals will continue to support the RMB, with a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [3]. - There is an expectation that pent-up demand for currency conversion may be released as the RMB appreciates, further supporting its value [3]. - The central bank is well-equipped with policy tools to manage exchange rate expectations flexibly [3].

Group 1 - The interbank foreign exchange market showed stable trading with a slight month-on-month increase in daily average trading volume, reaching $192.26 billion, although it experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [2] - The daily average trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $143.50 billion, down 7.7% year-on-year but up 5.5% month-on-month, primarily due to a decrease in spot volatility leading to subdued spot trading [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index rebounded after hitting a year-low of 96.22, influenced by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve despite a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - By the end of September, the dollar index closed at 97.7750, remaining stable compared to the previous month [3] Group 3 - The RMB exchange rate reached a new high for the year at 7.1019 before slightly retreating, closing at 7.1186 at the end of the month, reflecting a 0.17% appreciation for the month [4] - The CFETS RMB index against a basket of currencies reported an appreciation of 0.21% compared to the previous month [4] Group 4 - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from positive to negative, with an average daily differential of -4 basis points for the month, indicating a stronger selling pressure in the first half of the month [5] - The maximum differential recorded was -97 basis points on the 26th, marking the largest differential for the month [5] Group 5 - The implied volatility of RMB foreign exchange options continued to decline, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility dropping to 2.3%, the lowest since August 2024 [6] - The overall market sentiment regarding the RMB exchange rate has warmed, contributing to the decrease in volatility [6] Group 6 - The trading volume of RMB foreign exchange swaps was active, with a daily average of $93.20 billion, up 8.9% month-on-month, driven mainly by state-owned banks [7] - The 1-year swap points reached a new high in two and a half years at -1322 basis points, reflecting a significant increase of 261 basis points from the previous month [7][8] Group 7 - The US dollar liquidity remained loose, with the SOFR rate fluctuating around 4.40% before rising to a year-high of 4.51% mid-month, then declining to 4.14% after the Fed's rate cut [9][10] - The domestic dollar borrowing rates decreased following the Fed's rate cut, with the overnight borrowing rate stabilizing at 4.06% by the end of the month [9][10]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在研报中表示，往后看，伴随美联储恢复降息，以及贸易政策对美国经济 冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限；不过，上半年美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空 因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉）10月29日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1000，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1006。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.09655。 与此同时，美元指数在99关口下方震荡，截至9时30分，报98.7057。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.0843，较前一日上调13个基点。 ...

Core Points - The US dollar index decreased by 0.09% to 98.73, indicating a slight weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies appreciated, with the euro rising by 0.08% to 1.1654 against the dollar [1] - The British pound fell by 0.48% to 1.3272 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar increased by 0.45% to 0.6586 [1] - The dollar also declined against the Japanese yen by 0.52% to 152.0865, and against the Canadian dollar by 0.29% to 1.3946 [1] - Additionally, the dollar decreased by 0.27% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.7933 [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment of the RMB to USD exchange rate indicates a stronger trend, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0856 on October 28, marking a rise of 25 basis points from the previous trading day and the highest since October 15, 2024 [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1023 basis points since the beginning of the year, reflecting a stronger domestic economic performance and a significant decline in the USD [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 97.55, the BIS currency basket index was at 103.64, and the SDR currency basket index was at 91.91, all hitting new highs since April [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1006, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 2.73%, while the offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0954, reflecting a year-to-date rise of about 3.26% [2] - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include a weak USD environment, the central bank's stable exchange rate policies, and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [2] - The outlook suggests that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong state, with a focus on the USD's movements and the central bank's control over the RMB's central parity [2] Group 2 - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide a supportive role for the RMB exchange rate, with pent-up demand for currency conversion potentially being released as the RMB appreciates [3] - The central bank has sufficient tools to stabilize the exchange rate and is expected to adjust policy flexibly to mitigate unilateral market expectations regarding the exchange rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - Optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement has led to a decline in silver prices, with market sentiment improving as a result [1][5]. Market Analysis - Silver prices have been on a downward trend, with spot silver falling for the third consecutive trading day, opening at $46.95 per ounce and hitting a low of $46.48 per ounce during Asian trading [2]. - The decline in silver prices is attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, which include agreements on soybean purchases and the suspension of rare earth export controls [5]. - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, which could limit further declines in silver prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Support levels for silver are identified at $46.66 (intraday low) and $46.81 (current quote), indicating short-term resilience [6]. - Resistance levels are noted at $47.16 (selling price) and $47.19 (intraday high), suggesting a pressure zone that requires strong volume to break through [7]. - The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are trending downward, indicating a bearish short-term outlook [8]. Market Sentiment - A strengthening US dollar is exerting downward pressure on silver prices, although increasing physical demand may provide some support [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，整体上看，近期在美元指数震荡上行、全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间价向偏强方向调整力 度有所加大。这或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这意 味当前稳汇率的重心正在向稳定CFETS等一篮子人民币汇率指数转移。另外，当前外部环境波动有所加大，人民币汇价稳中有升，也有 助于缓解贸易摩擦，为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。 最新数据显示，三大人民币汇率指数均创4月以来新高。据中国外汇交易中心，10月24日当周，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.55，环比涨 0.47；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报103.64，环比涨0.57；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.91，环比涨0.42。 中金外汇认为，目前人民币汇率升值预期较为稳固，外汇市场供求将继续在内外部因素的综合影响下趋于平衡。本周，美国将发布9月耐 用品订单和9月PCE价格指数等经济数据，并将召开FOMC议息会议。中国将公布9月工业企业利润和10月PMI等经济数据。目前市场预期 美联储将在此次会议上降息一次，中美经贸关系将保持稳定。预计人民币汇率仍有望保持偏强波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Renminbi (RMB) has shown a slight appreciation against the US dollar, indicating a stable domestic economic environment and sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [1] Exchange Rate Summary - On October 28, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1070 against the US dollar, up from the previous day's close of 7.1109 [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.10570 as of 9:40 AM [1] - The RMB central parity rate was set at 7.0856, an increase of 25 basis points from the previous day [1] Dollar Index Summary - The US dollar index fluctuated below the 99 mark, reported at 98.6871 as of 9:40 AM [1] Market Outlook Summary - Citic Securities anticipates that the domestic economic fundamentals will primarily support the RMB exchange rate, which remains sensitive to policies aimed at promoting growth [1] - If the RMB continues to appreciate, there may be a release of pent-up demand for foreign exchange settlements, further supporting the RMB [1] - The central bank has sufficient tools to stabilize the exchange rate, and its operations in 2026 are expected to be a significant factor influencing RMB exchange rate expectations [1]