Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum will be held in Shenzhen from May 17 to 18, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system, aiming to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders [88]. Group 1: Event Details - The forum will feature over 20 high-level political and economic leaders from both China and abroad, with nearly 100 international heavyweight guests in attendance [3]. - The opening ceremony will take place on May 17 from 9:00 to 11:10 [6]. - Various thematic discussions will be held, including topics such as the challenges of global economic fragmentation and opportunities and challenges in green development [17][26]. Group 2: Thematic Discussions - The first thematic discussion will focus on "Global Economic Fragmentation Challenges," scheduled for May 17 from 15:30 to 16:45 [17]. - Another discussion will address "Opportunities and Challenges in Green Development," occurring on May 17 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [26]. - A session on "Financial Assistance for Cultural and Tourism Industries to Become Pillar Industries" will be held on May 18 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [76].

Core Viewpoint - The aging population in Guangzhou poses significant challenges to the social security system, necessitating improvements in healthcare and pension policies to address the increasing dependency ratio and healthcare costs [1][2][3]. Demographic Trends - Guangzhou's elderly population is rapidly increasing, with 204.77 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 19.38% of the total population, and 147.15 million aged 65 and above, making up 13.93% [2]. - The elderly dependency ratio is 32.10% for those aged 60 and above and 21.16% for those aged 65 and above, indicating a trend towards a moderately aging society [2]. Challenges in Healthcare Insurance - The current funding model for medical insurance is inadequate to cope with the systemic risks posed by an aging population, as the per capita medical expenditure for retirees is over four times that of active workers [3]. - The reliance on contributions from active workers while retirees incur higher medical costs creates a growing financial strain on the medical insurance fund [3]. Long-term Care Insurance System - Although Guangzhou has made progress in establishing a long-term care insurance system, there are still significant areas for improvement, including uneven distribution of care facilities and limited service coverage [4][5]. - Approximately 30% of designated care institutions only provide basic living assistance without medical care services, highlighting a gap in comprehensive care [4][6]. Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a diversified funding mechanism for medical insurance, including expanding coverage and exploring capital market investments to enhance fund stability [7]. - Optimize the layout of long-term care service institutions based on demographic needs and expand the range of services offered to include preventive care and psychological support [8]. - Encourage the development of supplementary medical insurance through tax incentives for businesses and promote commercial health insurance to meet diverse healthcare needs [10]. - Adjust the payment and contribution methods for retirees to improve the sustainability of the medical insurance fund, potentially implementing a system where retirees contribute based on their income [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - The evolution of life insurance products in the UK, US, and Japan highlights a shift towards health and annuity insurance, driven by demographic changes and economic factors [2][5][33] - The US life insurance market has seen a significant increase in market share, with life insurance premium income rising from $542.9 billion in 2000 to $685.9 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound growth rate of 1.0% [14][20] - In Japan, the life insurance market is transitioning towards health insurance, with a notable increase in the demand for medical and cancer insurance products due to an aging population [36][39] Summary by Sections 1. US Life Insurance Market - The US life insurance market's share of global premiums increased from 18.7% in 2010 to 23.9% in 2022, with a stable share above 20% since 2019 [11] - Life insurance density in the US rose from $1,504 per person in 2010 to $2,017 in 2022, while the depth decreased from 3.1% to 2.6% during the same period [11][13] - Annuity insurance has become the primary source of premium income, accounting for over 50% of the market, while health insurance is experiencing rapid growth [19][21] 2. Japanese Life Insurance Market - Japan's life insurance density and depth have declined from $3,445 per person and 7.5% in 2010 to $1,942 and 5.9% in 2022, respectively [33] - The demand for health insurance products has surged, with medical and cancer insurance policies growing significantly due to an aging population [36][39] - The evolution of life insurance products in Japan is influenced by economic conditions, demographic changes, and regulatory policies [39][48] 3. UK Life Insurance Market - The UK life insurance market has a rich history of product innovation, with a current focus on annuity products due to increasing life expectancy and regulatory changes [2][3] - The market remains stable, with a diverse range of products, primarily driven by economic development, population aging, and tax incentives [2][3][5]

Summary of Service Corporation International (SCI) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Service Corporation International (SCI) - **Industry**: Funeral services and cemetery operations - **Market Position**: Largest operator in the U.S. and Canada with approximately 17% market share by revenue, while other consolidators account for about 9% [4][6] Core Business Model and Strategy - **Business Segments**: Divided into funeral services and cemetery operations, with a focus on preneed contracts to secure market share and build trust fund portfolios [4][5] - **Earnings Growth Target**: Aiming for 8% to 12% earnings growth, with 5% to 7% from base business and 3% to 5% from capital deployment (acquisitions, growth capital, share repurchases) [6] Recent Performance and Trends - **Funeral Volume Trends**: - Increased by 13% in 2020 and 4% in 2021 due to COVID-19 - Declined by 4% to 5% in 2022, 5% to 6% in 2023, and expected to decline by 2.5% in 2024 [8][9] - Anticipating flat to slightly down volumes in 2025 due to normalization post-COVID [9] - **Cemetery Operations**: - Cemetery sales are closely linked to funeral volumes, with a decline in both areas noted during the pandemic recovery [11][12] Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - **Funeral Revenue per Service**: - Steady growth in low single digits driven by inflationary pricing power, with a shift towards cremation impacting average sales growth [14][16] - Current cremation mix at 60%, with expectations to stabilize around 75% to 80% in the long term [17] - **Preneed Sales**: - Transitioning from trust instruments to insurance contracts, which is expected to stabilize and grow preneed production in the future [22][23] - Anticipated low single-digit declines in funeral preneed production for 2025, with expectations for stabilization and growth in 2026 [27] Cemetery Preneed Sales - **Core vs. Large Sales**: - Core preneed sales account for 85% to 90% of the business, showing low single-digit growth [30] - Large sales (over $80,000) are more volatile and dependent on individual family decisions [31] - **Growth Outlook**: - Expecting low single-digit growth in cemetery preneed sales for 2025, with potential for stronger performance if macroeconomic conditions improve [35] Margin and Cash Flow Expectations - **Margin Dynamics**: - Cemetery margins have improved from around 20% to the lower 30s, with expectations for flat margins in 2025 due to low single-digit growth [48] - Funeral margins expected to remain around 21% for 2025 until demographic changes drive volume increases [49] - **Free Cash Flow**: - Projecting $860 million in operating cash flow for 2025, with expected free cash flow of around $550 million after capital expenditures [51] Land Management and Future Growth - **Cemetery Land Availability**: - Over 100 years of available inventory across 36,000 acres, but some cemeteries nearing capacity [57] - Strategies include raising prices, reconfiguring land, and acquiring adjacent properties to manage land constraints [59][61] Regulatory Environment - **Funeral Rule Compliance**: - SCI is prepared to comply with the FTC's funeral rule, with pricing already online at 75% of locations [56] Conclusion - SCI is navigating a post-COVID environment with a focus on stabilizing and growing its preneed sales, managing margins, and leveraging its land assets for future growth. The company remains optimistic about its long-term strategies despite current market challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends and statistics related to the migrant worker population in China, highlighting the growth in numbers, changes in demographics, and regional employment dynamics over the past decade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Migrant Worker Population Growth - The total number of migrant workers in China reached 29,973 million in 2024, an increase of 2.2 million from the previous year, representing a growth rate of 0.7% [1]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total number of migrant workers increased by 22.26 million, with a growth rate of 8% [1]. - The central and western regions saw significant increases in migrant workers, with the central region growing by 1,439 million (25.7%) and the western region by 1,394 million (26.8%) [1]. Group 2: Regional Employment Dynamics - The proportion of migrant workers in the eastern region decreased from 57.7% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2024, while the central region's share increased from 20.2% to 23.5% [2]. - In 2024, the eastern region saw an increase of 860,000 migrant workers, while the central and western regions also experienced growth [2]. - The central region's share of the total increase in migrant workers rose significantly from 49.8% in 2021 to 110% in 2023 [2]. Group 3: Employment and Income Trends - The average monthly income of migrant workers in 2024 was 4,961 yuan, an increase of 181 yuan (3.8%) from the previous year [3]. - The average income for outgoing migrant workers was 5,634 yuan, while local migrant workers earned an average of 4,291 yuan [3]. - The unemployment rate for external agricultural household labor was 4.6% in 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Demographic Changes - The average age of migrant workers increased from 38.3 years in 2014 to 43.2 years in 2024, reflecting an aging workforce [4]. - The proportion of migrant workers under 40 years old decreased from 70% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2024, while those over 50 years old increased from 17.9% to 31.6% [4]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to implement a new round of urbanization for agricultural transfer populations, focusing on easing household registration issues in large cities [5]. - Policies aim to enhance employment opportunities in industries with strong capacity to absorb migrant workers, particularly in services like elderly care and childcare [5]. - New measures will address housing security and public service facilities for nearly 300 million migrant workers [5].

撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 神经系统疾病 一直是全球健康损失的主要原因，然而在中国，神经系统疾病造成的负担仍鲜为人知。 2025 年 5 月 1 日，首都医科大学宣武医院 郝峻巍 教授团队与中国疾控中心 周脉耕 研究员团队合作，在 Cell 子刊 Med 上发表了题为： Burden of neurological disorders in China and its provinces, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021 的研究论文。 该研究全面考察了中国及其各省神经系统疾病负担的分布情况和变化趋势。结果显示，神经障碍广泛影响着中国各年龄段的人群，对老年人的影响尤为严重，人 口老龄化是导致神经系统疾病患病率大幅上升和健康损失加剧的主要因素。各省在神经系统疾病负担方面的差异与社会经济发展水平相关。 研究团队评估了 1990-2021 年间 16 种神经系统疾病按年龄、性别和省份划分的疾病负担估计值，包括患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年 （DALY） 、生命损失年 （YLL） 和伤残生存年 （YLD） ，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the competition among provinces in China is closely tied to population dynamics, with GDP growth rates reflecting the resilience of certain provinces in the face of national trends [3][5]. Economic Growth and Population Dynamics - In the first quarter, 15 out of 31 provinces reported GDP growth rates that met or exceeded the national average of 5.4%, indicating strong economic resilience [3]. - Population structure is a critical factor influencing long-term economic competitiveness, alongside industrial upgrades and investment [5]. Population Growth Trends - In a context of declining national population, five provinces (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, and Shaanxi) have achieved positive population growth, with birth rates exceeding 6‰ [6]. - Guangdong has the highest birth rate at 8.89‰, maintaining its status as the leading province for births for seven consecutive years [6][8]. Labor Force and Economic Activity - The provinces with the highest labor force participation rates include Guangdong, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with Guangdong's labor population at 66.38%, surpassing the national average [20]. - The influx of young migrants into Guangdong contributes to its robust labor market, with significant employment opportunities in high-end manufacturing and modern services [20][10]. Aging Population Challenges - By 2024, 22% of China's population is aged 60 and above, with provinces like Liaoning facing severe aging issues, where 31.17% of the population is elderly [26][27]. - The aging population is exacerbated by low birth rates and out-migration of younger individuals seeking better opportunities in more developed regions [28][31]. Regional Variations in Birth Rates - Provinces with higher birth rates tend to have a larger proportion of children aged 0-15, indicating potential for future labor market vitality [15][17]. - The article notes a positive correlation between birth rates and the proportion of young populations across provinces [16]. Policy Responses to Demographic Challenges - Jiangsu province has recognized the need to attract and retain population, implementing measures to ease residency restrictions and promote childbirth [23][24]. - Various provinces are adopting policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives and improved maternity benefits [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates solid cash cow attributes, with short-term profit pressures not undermining its long-term value. Despite a decline in net profit for 2024, the operating cash flow remains robust, reflecting the company's strong core business [2][4]. - The company is expanding its store network significantly, with a total of 16,553 stores as of the 2024 report, including 10,503 direct-operated and 6,050 franchised stores. This expansion is supported by a successful direct franchise model that enhances operational efficiency [3]. - The new retail model is maturing, with a high penetration of O2O delivery services and a growing B2C business, benefiting from policies promoting prescription drug separation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.497 billion yuan, an increase of 8.01% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 21.58% to 915 million yuan. The first quarter of 2025 showed revenue of 6.956 billion yuan, up 3.02%, and net profit increased by 15.45% to 460 million yuan [1][2]. Store Network Expansion - The total number of stores reached 16,553 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 2,479 stores during the year. The company has entered new markets, including Shanghai and Inner Mongolia, and plans to enhance regional coverage starting in the second half of 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to 1.048 billion yuan and 1.235 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 38% and 40% from previous estimates. The 2027 net profit is projected to be 1.437 billion yuan, representing a growth of 14.59% [4][5]. The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20 for 2025, 17 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [4].

地可考虑强化政策导向、财政投入的示范引导作用，以土地、税费、金融等配套政策降低准入门槛，搭 建跨区域产业协作平台，营造有利于养老产业发展的良好环境。 （作者系黑龙江省中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心特聘研究员） 人口老龄化是世界人口发展的必然趋势。当前，我国人口老龄化进程加快，深度影响经济社会发展走 向。今年的《政府工作报告》明确提出，积极应对人口老龄化，完善发展养老事业和养老产业政策机 制。需要注意的是，我国人口老龄化在不同地区、不同领域的影响呈现明显的差异性，应对方法也应有 所不同。《中共中央国务院关于加强新时代老龄工作的意见》提出"老龄化风险梯次应对"，意在强调要 根据人口老龄化风险和挑战的大小、范围、缓急程度等因素梯次配置应对策略。那么，为什么要梯次应 对？对欠发达地区而言，该如何更好应对人口老龄化？ 人口老龄化，一般来讲，是指人口结构转变的动态过程，表现为老年人口在总人口中的比例不断上升， 但并不等同于风险和挑战。人口老龄化的风险和挑战，是指在这个过程中扩散出的可能对社会造成的不 确定损失，这种不确定损失，会因应对能力的不同而不同。衡量一个区域、一个领域人口老龄化带来的 风险和挑战，既要看老龄化的影 ...

Core Insights - The event marked the unveiling of Guotai Haitong Securities' Chongqing branch, emphasizing the importance of financial services in supporting local economic development [1][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Guotai Haitong Securities Chongqing branch aims to leverage opportunities and contribute to the high-quality development of Chongqing's economy [1][5]. - The branch is positioned to provide diverse and efficient financial services to enhance the economic and social development of the Jiangbei District and Chongqing [5]. - The event was attended by nearly 800 high-net-worth investors and representatives from various financial institutions, indicating strong interest and support for the new branch [6]. Group 2: Industry Context - Chongqing is recognized as a key city for high-quality development, with the local government prioritizing the financial industry as a crucial pillar for growth [5]. - The forum highlighted the undervaluation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the national economy, with SOEs contributing nearly 50% of profits and dividends in the A-share market [6]. - The increasing necessity for self-sufficiency in technology is expected to keep the tech sector active, while the current asset valuation environment presents a favorable opportunity for investment in Chinese assets [6].