Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) appreciated against the US dollar after two days of decline, influenced by the release of the preliminary November PMI data, which showed an increase in manufacturing PMI to 51.6 from 49.7 and services PMI rising from 52.5 to 52.7 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates if economic data continues to exceed expectations, as indicated in the meeting minutes [1][3] - The ASX 30-day bank cash rate futures indicate an 8% probability of a rate adjustment at the next RBA meeting, with the current cash rate at 3.60% [1] Group 2 - The US dollar (USD) depreciated against the Chinese yuan (CNY), with market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate adjustment increasing, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool showing a rise in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December from 30% to 36% [2] - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4% [2] - The People's Bank of China maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, which may impact the Australian dollar due to trade relations [2] Group 3 - The Australian wage price index grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, aligning with expectations [3] - RBA's November meeting minutes indicated a more balanced policy stance, suggesting that if economic data remains strong, the cash rate may be held steady for a longer period [3] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a sideways consolidation phase, trading around 0.6450, with the first support level at 0.6440 and a lower reference at 0.6414 [5] - The upper resistance levels to watch are the 9-day moving average at 0.6487 and the psychological level at 0.6500, with a potential return to the upper range at 0.6630 if surpassed [5]

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比暗示，他对于在美联储12月会议上再次降息仍持 谨慎态度。古尔斯比周四在印第安纳波利斯的一次活动中表示，通胀"似乎已经停滞不前，甚至可以说 有走错方向的警告信号。这让我感到有些不安。" 古尔斯比表示："我仍然感到不安的是，在我们真正看到通胀回升是暂时的证据之前，进行过多的前置 性降息。" 越来越多的政策制定者对在通胀仍处高位的情况下过度降息表示担忧。上月会议纪要显示，在美联储上 次会议上(当时他们连续第二次降息)，许多官员倾向于不在12月再次降息。 这位芝加哥联储负责人称，他的犹豫是针对短期而言，因为他仍听到一些行业的企业表示将进一步涨 价。但他仍然认为中期内利率可以进一步下降。 在印第安纳波利斯活动后向记者发表讲话时，古尔斯比称，在9月份政策制定者最新发布预测时，他预 计今年总共会进行两次降息。他指出，自那时以来经济数据没有太大变化。 今年年初，在特朗普政府宣布大幅提高关税之前，古尔斯比曾表示，美联储官员可能在未来12-18个月 内将利率降至所谓的中性水平，即利率既不抑制也不刺激经济的水平。 在因联邦政府停摆而推迟至周四发布的9月就业报告中，即使失业率上升，招 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes indicate uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in December and early next year, with policymakers divided on the necessity of an additional rate cut due to concerns over the labor market and inflation [1][2][5] Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed implemented its first rate cut of the year in September, followed by a second 25-basis-point cut in October, resulting in a benchmark federal funds rate range of 3.75% to 4% [2] - Participants expressed differing opinions on the appropriateness of further rate cuts at the December meeting, with some suggesting that a 25-basis-point reduction may not be likely [5][6] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The minutes highlighted discussions on the impact of higher tariffs from the Trump administration, which have increased costs for businesses importing goods and contributed to rising inflation as these costs are passed to consumers [8] - While some policymakers noted that inflation was close to the Fed's long-term target of 2%, many remarked that overall inflation had been above target for an extended period without signs of returning to the 2% objective [9][11] Economic Outlook and Consumer Sentiment - Many participants anticipated a potential increase in core goods inflation in the coming quarters due to the pass-through effects of tariffs, although there was uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of these price adjustments [11] - The consensus among Fed policymakers was that monetary policy decisions would not follow a preset course but would depend on incoming data and the evolving economic outlook [12] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December have fluctuated, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 43.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, a rise from 30.1% but below the previous week's 50.1% and last month's 98.8% [13]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expresses uncertainty regarding another interest rate cut, which could impact crypto prices negatively [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is divided on the potential for a third rate cut in December 2025, with differing opinions among officials [2][3] Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC agreed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% during their meeting on October 29, following a similar cut in September [3] - Officials are cautious about further cuts unless inflation decreases before the December meeting, indicating a balancing act between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation [4][8] Market Reactions - Prior to the release of the FOMC minutes, the likelihood of a third rate cut was rated at 55%, but this shifted to nearly 70% for no change after the minutes were published [5] - Historically, lower interest rates have been seen as beneficial for the crypto market, attracting investors to riskier assets [6][8] Historical Context - Lower interest rates have previously catalyzed significant bull runs in the crypto market, with Bitcoin rising from approximately $5,000 in March 2020 to an all-time high of $69,000 by November 2021 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October policy meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among decision-makers regarding the recent interest rate cut, highlighting concerns about its potential impact on inflation control efforts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - Decision-makers showed disagreement on supporting the rate cut during the October meeting and whether to cut rates again in December [1] - Several participants favored the October rate cut, while some indicated they could have supported maintaining rates [1] Inflation Concerns - Many participants believe that keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of the year is appropriate given their current outlook [1] - A majority expressed that further rate cuts could heighten the risk of entrenched high inflation or be perceived as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation target [1] Economic Outlook - The minutes reflect officials' efforts to reach a consensus amid data scarcity, balancing the dual risks of rising inflation and a weak labor market [1] - There is a warning that a "sharp revaluation" of AI investments could lead to "disorderly declines" in the stock market [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming jobs report is expected to show a slight improvement in the labor market, with a forecasted gain of 50,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, indicating a soft labor market overall [3][10] - The report will be the first official jobs data released since the government shutdown, providing some insights for investors and policymakers, although it may not significantly alter the current economic outlook [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about making decisions based on limited data, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell describing the current situation as "driving in the fog" [4][8] Labor Market Data - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with previous months [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release an October jobs report separately, combining it with the November report, which has been delayed to December 16 [6] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a total of 80,000 jobs created in September but predicts a decline of 50,000 jobs in October due to the expiration of a federal program [8][9] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that the September report and revisions for July and August may indicate a slightly brighter outlook than previously assumed, although the overall economic conditions remain uncertain [2][10] - The BLS has updated its release schedule for various data points, reflecting the ongoing challenges in accurately assessing the labor market due to the recent government shutdown [5][7] - Other indicators, such as private payroll data and layoff announcements, are being monitored to gauge the labor market's status amid the uncertainty [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve appears to be divided in its conclusions despite having access to the same data, leading to confusion among analysts [1][2] - The term "likely not appropriate" was frequently used regarding a potential rate cut, indicating a cautious stance from the Fed [2] - Inflation has been persistent and largely unchanged over the past year, yet the Fed is currently focusing on it [2] Group 2 - There was a misconception in the media regarding a spike in interest rates, which did not occur as reported [3][4] - Fed fund futures indicate a decreasing probability of a rate cut, with a brief dip below 30% [3] - The 10-year yield has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 4.07% to 4.17% since the last rate cut in October, suggesting a period of stability [5]

The October employment report has been canceled and the November report will come out late, the government said, depriving the Federal Reserve of critical information before it meets in early December to decide whether to cut interest rates again. ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates more quickly, expressing a desire to replace him [1] Group 1: Trump's Criticism - Trump stated, "Honestly, I would like to fire him," referring to Powell's performance [1] - He emphasized that interest rates are too high and urged Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to expedite the search for Powell's successor [1] Group 2: Succession Plans - Mnuchin, who is leading the search for a new Federal Reserve chair, mentioned that Trump will meet with three final candidates after Thanksgiving [1] - An announcement regarding the new candidate is expected before Christmas [1]

Recruiters speak to job seekers at the Appalachian State University internship and job fair in Boone, North Carolina, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday it will not release a full U.S. jobs report for the month of October, following the longest government shutdown in the history of the country. Instead, "Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data," the BLS said. The BLS also ...